RevWarReenactor Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 3 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said: I don’t think it’s a non event, well I guess it depends on the definition but I95 around Baltimore I think has a chance for a couple of wet inches mainly on cold surfaces hence the advisory. I just don't see it. March. Daylight. Temps likely above freezing. Classic white rain setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Just now, Mdecoy said: I just don't see it. March. Daylight. Temps likely above freezing. Classic white rain setup. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 44 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Closer view My dreaded Shawan Rd call is looking solid if this is right. Seems like LWX also agrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Just now, SnowGolfBro said: I think you triggered that guy lol. Keep up the good fight! Prepare yourself for some painful obs tomorrow. Whatever medication you take double it. I assume almost everyone here is on some mood stabilizer or they are raging alcoholics. Tomorrow is not the day to get clean. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 5 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Prepare yourself for some painful obs tomorrow. Whatever medication you take double it. I assume almost everyone here is on some mood stabilizer or they are raging alcoholics. Tomorrow is not the day to get clean. One or more of the meso's are gonna paint 4 to 5 inches over our area in the next 10 hour cycle. Just hug them until it starts raining, then give up. That's what I do. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 11 minutes ago, Fozz said: My dreaded Shawan Rd call is looking solid if this is right. I will sleep like a baby tonight, lol. Speaking from lots experience this winter, anyone right near that 2" line on that tight gradient, it usually fails not in your favor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Sitting at 41 and partial sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 I think the HRRR will give a decent signal on where that rain/snow line sets up. It's not one of the most reliable models in general, but in these tight marginal setups, you don't want to be on the wrong side of that line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 9 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Prepare yourself for some painful obs tomorrow. Whatever medication you take double it. I assume almost everyone here is on some mood stabilizer or they are raging alcoholics. Tomorrow is not the day to get clean. Doubles as my measuring stick. 3 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 6 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: I will sleep like a baby tonight, lol. Speaking from lots experience this winter, anyone right near that 2" line on that tight gradient, it usually fails not in your favor. I agree. In fact, you really want to be on the right side of their 6" line. Not because you won't be happy with anything less than that, but because in these setups, the drop from 5-7" to 1-2" can be brutal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Stop hugging rain snow lines. Surface is almost always colder, precip is almost always more jacked than progged Too close to the storm to be using the Euro frankly. NAM/GEM/RGEM/GFS blend at the 24 hour mark will do. GEM says 10” in Baltimore. Euro says 2” lol. No wonder LWX has zero clue how to handle the Baltimore area. Going to be a VERY close call for me here in far western Ellicott City along 108 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 5 minutes ago, jayyy said: Stop hugging rain snow lines. Surface is almost always colder, precip is almost always more jacked than progged Too close to the storm to be using the Euro frankly. NAM/GEM/RGEM/GFS blend at the 24 hour mark will do. GEM says 10” in Baltimore. Euro says 2” lol. No wonder LWX has zero clue how to handle the Baltimore area. Going to be a VERY close call for me here in far western Ellicott City along 108 The LWX mets know a lot more about this than the vast majority of us. I'm not saying they will be right, but their forecasts are based on much more knowledge and advanced analysis than what we hobbyists are capable of, so I wouldn't dismiss them or say they have zero clue. Also, last minute north jumps often happen in these setups. Remember March 2017? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 4 minutes ago, jayyy said: Stop hugging rain snow lines. Surface is almost always colder, precip is almost always more jacked than progged Too close to the storm to be using the Euro frankly. NAM/GEM/RGEM/GFS blend at the 24 hour mark will do. GEM says 10” in Baltimore. Euro says 2” lol. No wonder LWX has zero clue how to handle the Baltimore area. Going to be a VERY close call for me here in far western Ellicott City along 108 I think the Euro has a lot more realistic algorithm in calculating on the snow maps than the other models especially the GEM. But yeah it’s still really close but you would think this is classic elevation dependent for the higher totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 51 minutes ago, Mdecoy said: I think this is a none event for I-95 corr. But you will basically be able to walk to snow. Wow, how did you figure this out? Are you sure? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 1 minute ago, Fozz said: I agree. In fact, you really want to be on the right side of their 6" line. Not because you won't be happy with anything less than that, but because in these setups, the drop from 5-7" to 1-2" can be brutal. Those snow maps are highly imperfect, and usually biased towards frozen on the edge imo. Probably will be pretty brutal because of the marginal surface temps and the warming at 850 mb at the height. The thing that might help those right on the line are heavy precip/dynamics. Hard to know how that will play out until game time. In this case it's probably wise to go with elevation, so if right on the fall line or east, keep expectations low. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 4 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said: I think the Euro has a lot more realistic algorithm in calculating on the snow maps than the other models especially the GEM. But yeah it’s still really close but you would think this is classic elevation dependent for the higher totals Up until last night the Euro snow map was blank Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 5 minutes ago, Interstate said: Up until last night the Euro snow map was blank Well you know what I’m saying. I think it’s better at calculating on the snow amounts on the edges of the rain/snow line etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Icefishingrocks Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 19 minutes ago, Interstate said: Doubles as my measuring stick. This is how I'll be measuring 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 18z NAM a bit slower than 12z fwiw 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 A bit better for the region this run... you can see it at the 850 level Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Hmmm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Icefishingrocks Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 1 minute ago, yoda said: Hmmm Why you messin with NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 4 minutes ago, yoda said: Hmmm Yeah I am totally buying the 5" it gives my yard in 3 hours, with the 850 mb 0c line right over me and heading NW. Those maps are terrible. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 12 minutes ago, yoda said: A bit better for the region this run... you can see it at the 850 level Hopefully the 3k NAM follows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 49 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Prepare yourself for some painful obs tomorrow. Whatever medication you take double it. I assume almost everyone here is on some mood stabilizer or they are raging alcoholics. Tomorrow is not the day to get clean. 31 minutes ago, jayyy said: Stop hugging rain snow lines. Surface is almost always colder, precip is almost always more jacked than progged Too close to the storm to be using the Euro frankly. NAM/GEM/RGEM/GFS blend at the 24 hour mark will do. GEM says 10” in Baltimore. Euro says 2” lol. No wonder LWX has zero clue how to handle the Baltimore area. Going to be a VERY close call for me here in far western Ellicott City along 108 How close are you to Sapwood Cellars on 108? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Yeah I am totally buying the 5" it gives my yard in 3 hours, with the 850 mb 0c line right over me and heading NW. Those maps are terrible. NAM smoking something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 9 minutes ago, yoda said: Hmmm Woah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said: Yeah I am totally buying the 5" it gives my yard in 3 hours, with the 850 mb 0c line right over me and heading NW. Those maps are terrible. I think his point was to show the changes between those two runs. My only takeaway from his post is that it’s a slightly colder run than 12z and there’s more frozen precip. We all know DC isn’t getting 6”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Just now, Solution Man said: NAM smoking something Get me some please 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 3km NAM is real close to all snow for DCA 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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