psuhoffman Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Ok the weaker/southern crap needs to stop now!!! When I brought up March 2014 I didn’t mean for this to immediately start trending that way wrt deamplifcation. Problem is there is way less low level cold to work with this time so a weak squashed wave like that will just be a sad result for everyone this time. That time at least the cold was legit enough for southern areas to get snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 3k NAM 12z. It very accurately predicted last nights no show snow. I would hug it and hope 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Nothing not to like about the 12z RGEM. We tak...abscond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Ok the weaker/southern crap needs to stop now!!! When I brought up March 2014 I didn’t mean for this to immediately start trending that way wrt deamplifcation. Problem is there is way less low level cold to work with this time so a weak squashed wave like that will just be a sad result for everyone this time. That time at least the cold was legit enough for southern areas to get snow. At least the RGEM was a nice hit for us just now at 12z. Little more enerentic and 3-4 hours of what looks to be 1”/hr rates. Verbatim about 8-9”. Not buying that with timing but can’t hurt that it comes in hot and best rates are 6-10pm. Workable to get a 6” event out of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 I can endorse the rgem. Holds the line on amp. Nice 3-5 hour thump of precip. Gets good snow into the urban area...or as good as can be expected with the marginal temps we have to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Ok the weaker/southern crap needs to stop now!!! When I brought up March 2014 I didn’t mean for this to immediately start trending that way wrt deamplifcation. Problem is there is way less low level cold to work with this time so a weak squashed wave like that will just be a sad result for everyone this time. That time at least the cold was legit enough for southern areas to get snow. Just hug the RGEM and 3k NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 28 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Ok you need to chill. There are some places in this sub that will get snow. Some people will be happy with only 2-3” and a lot of people in the northern 1/2 here have a shot at that. And places that aren’t in a shadow in the northwest 1/3 might get a significant snow. Not everyone lives in a snow hole. Im very sympathetic to you. I’ve lived in shadow zones before. Pine Grove PA was one. State College is actually a frustrating place if you like big storms. Where I lived near Philly along the Delaware River was one. Between the UHI and the near sea level elevation and there was often more snow in every direction. Get out of the Delaware valley on either side and snowfall went up. I know how much it sucks. So I moved. I know not everyone can just move. And I truly remember how frustrating it was living in a shadow zone and yours is likely worse. But I also know your issues are local. A lot of those storms that failed in your yard were very good snows all around you. Your pessimism towards your yards situation is warranted but projecting that onto the whole region isn’t accurate. You're right. Very negative mood ATM. Will refrain. Good luck to those who may see snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 What’s really preventing more upside here is the true cold air is hanging back behind this wave. We are working with stale cold and just a tiny bit of cold push that bleeds over the top but the real cold is with the high that is behind the system. We need a thump of precip to overcome marginal temps. And even up here that is true to some extent. Most guidance even has me hovering around 32 during the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Rgem a little worse for pwc crew, slight bump north. Not bad but not great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 1 minute ago, Fozz said: Just hug the RGEM and 3k NAM. Probably not a bad combo to have on your side inside of 36 hours. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I can endorse the rgem. Holds the line on amp. Nice 3-5 hour thump of precip. Gets good snow into the urban area...or as good as can be expected with the marginal temps we have to work with. It's actually worse for the cities compared to 6z. One way or the other you have the best shot at 5+ even with the shrinking precip shield. If i was out towards winchester and hagerstown I wouldn't be digging the shrinking precip shield right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 2 minutes ago, Fozz said: Just hug the RGEM and 3k NAM. On the bright side the 12k has been a joke lately. Really really bad. On the down side it’s typically been over amped as an error. This time it’s under amped. But in general the 12k NAM has been the worst meso model imo lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: What’s really preventing more upside here is the true cold air is hanging back behind this wave. We are working with stale cold and just a tiny bit of cold push that bleeds over the top but the real cold is with the high that is behind the system. We need a thump of precip to overcome marginal temps. And even up here that is true to some extent. Most guidance even has me hovering around 32 during the storm. Marginal storms have some of the best winter scenery that you can get if you're on the good side. You have a decent shot of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Need .3 for 20”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Forecast high for MRB today is 47. Currently socked in with fog at 33. Hourly forecast says 40 by noon and 47 at 3:00. Have to go south to SHD to find a 40 degree reading currently. Will be interesting to see how the day goes. Hoping to preserve some kind of snow pack leading into tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 NAM's came ever so slightly south. ICON and RGEM went ever so slightly north. Early on GFS appears to be coming north slightly to be a hold. It's a pretty easy forecast imo. 95 north and west have the best chance at accumulating snow. Carrol and Frederick and northern baltimore counties appear to be in the bullseye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 13 minutes ago, Fozz said: Just hug the RGEM and 3k NAM. Rgem definitely. 3k is kind of pathetic here. Best qpf is south. Only about 5” up here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 15 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: At least the RGEM was a nice hit for us just now at 12z. Little more enerentic and 3-4 hours of what looks to be 1”/hr rates. Verbatim about 8-9”. Not buying that with timing but can’t hurt that it comes in hot and best rates are 6-10pm. Workable to get a 6” event out of that. 6” is my target not to be disappointed on this one. 8 is my full win and 10 is my strip naked in celebration. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: 6” is my target not to be disappointed on this one. 8 is my full win and 10 is my strip naked in celebration. I just wanna see snow fall from the sky 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Rgem definitely. 3k is kind of pathetic here. Best qpf is south. Only about 5” up here. 3k NAM is a Fozz bullseye (minus the Catoctins) so I’m rooting for that. Almost 8” here if you believe the 10:1 map. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 1 minute ago, Deer Whisperer said: I just wanna see snow fall from the sky Then the GFS is for you my friend. I think we will see snow fall from the sky tomorrow. Not sure where the fail line sets up but looks ok 95 and west north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 16 minutes ago, WVclimo said: Forecast high for MRB today is 47. Currently socked in with fog at 33. Hourly forecast says 40 by noon and 47 at 3:00. Have to go south to SHD to find a 40 degree reading currently. Will be interesting to see how the day goes. Hoping to preserve some kind of snow pack leading into tomorrow morning. Yeah. No chance we hit 40 with the fog. I am 32 right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 12z GFS seems acceptable. Eta: For my local crew that is. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Yeah. No chance we hit 40 with the fog. I am 32 right now. Same here. Glaze on trees is beautiful. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 31 minutes ago, MD Snow said: It's actually worse for the cities compared to 6z. One way or the other you have the best shot at 5+ even with the shrinking precip shield. If i was out towards winchester and hagerstown I wouldn't be digging the shrinking precip shield right now. Hmmm. I dont know what you are seeing. Nobody should have come into this expecting 10 inches. The models have consistently shown 4-6 for the NW burbs for the past 2 days? And the precip shield has gotten larger as well. All of PA is in snow now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Icefishingrocks Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Everything is just to fast and progressive with this little thing. I'll just hug the 12z GFS and take what ever little snow I get. Tack on another inch or two to the seasonal total and move on. I love winter more than most people I know, but I'll be glad when this one is is the rearview mirror. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 1 hour ago, MD Snow said: The Nam snow maps were showing 2-5” for last nights coastal pretty much region wide fyi...even with that things have been looking drier. I was joking. And like I said, I know what you meant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 FV 3 Has DC walking the R/S line which may be where the heaviest precip sets up... just hoping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 27 minutes ago, Fozz said: Marginal storms have some of the best winter scenery that you can get if you're on the good side. You have a decent shot of that. I was trying to be sub centered in that post. Not everyone is on a 1000 foot ridge on the northern edge of the region. What might prevent this from being a better result for more of the forum imo is the lack of true cold ahead of the wave. The track is workable if we had that. Might mix some but probably would still be a nice event into the cities. But with the stale marginal cold in place it creates a double bind for 95 south. More amped and waa easily presses warm layers into the region. Less amped and don’t get the dynamics needed to overcome the marginal surface temps. Places without any elevation are stuck in that double bind and walking a tightrope needed just enough amp to get a thump and not enough to press the whole mid level boundary north. A colder antecedent airmass would have solved that and gave all of us more upside here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 GFS is right in line with the RGEM and NAM's. 4-6 for the burbs. And snow into the cities for a bit as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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