showmethesnow Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: I am ofc rooting for more of a GFS type solution, with a further SE track and later development. This type of evolution might get the mid levels cold enough for some snow here, probably towards the end of the event. Low probability though. Better chances along I-95. Think you are in a rough spot no matter how you look at it, besides a possibly brief flip as the storm exits stage right. You would need the OBX exit solutions with a much more rapid intensification of the low then any model is currently projecting. Then you would have to hope that the low doesn't hug the coast. I guess that isn't impossible. But it is probably unlikely as we are within 36 hours of the event. But there is hope. $200 dollars for a room for the night as well as all the hot dogs you can eat. I will even splurge and spend the big bucks for the all beef ones. Can't ask for a better deal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Funny what happens when you let one storm finish before talking about trends or final solutions. I suspect today's runs will show true trends. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 1 minute ago, showmethesnow said: Think you are in a rough spot no matter how you look at it, besides a possibly brief flip as the storm exits stage right. You would need the OBX exit solutions with a much more rapid intensification of the low then any model is currently projecting. Then you would have to hope that the low doesn't hug the coast. I guess that isn't impossible. But it is probably unlikely as we are within 36 hours of the event. But there is hope. $200 dollars for a room for the night as well as all the hot dogs you can eat. I will even splurge and spend the big bucks for the all beef ones. Can't ask for a better deal. Believe me I am not holding out much hope on this one. Gonna keep the incredible streak of cold rain events going. How is your stock of Imperial coffee stout looking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said: Believe me I am not holding out much hope on this one. Gonna keep the incredible streak of cold rain events going. How is your stock of Imperial coffee stout looking? Just one left. Thinking about it I better run to the store and see if they have any left. Kind of sucks they are a seasonal beer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 3 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Funny what happens when you let one storm finish before talking about trends or final solutions. I suspect today's runs will show true trends. I hope. I am in Baltimore County so a slight south trend puts me the in bullseye. Seems like a legit wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 1 minute ago, showmethesnow said: Just one left. Thinking about it I better run to the store and see if they have any left. Kind of sucks they are a seasonal beer. The Founders Breakfast stout is a good one and available all year. Another, more local, coffee stout is the Rise-Up from Evolution (Salisbury). Not sure how available it is up your way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 17 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: This would tend to favor some colder thermal profiles, however a more southern track may also lessen the dynamic forcing to some extent especially the farther northwest one goes. they should have just said "thread the needle".. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 3 minutes ago, PDIII said: I hope. I am in Baltimore County so a slight south trend puts me the in bullseye. Seems like a legit wave. It could trend north my only point the other day was I thought we had to get this storm out of the way before talking about trends and such Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Fv3 ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 2, 2019 Author Share Posted March 2, 2019 2 hours ago, jayyy said: Have seen this setup too many times to know we will be 90% snow here in central HoCo along 108. Expect watches to be expanded SE by this afternoons package. Hope so. I think there could be a big difference between your location and mine. A 10-20mi shift would be huge, but that’s in the noise from last nights euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Anybody else concerned about how the models have trended drier and drier with this system? Something to watch today is total precip totals from this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 3K NAM has me literally right on the rain/snow line at the height of the storm. A 2 mile shift south from that would make a big difference... I'm not even kidding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Anybody else concerned about how the models have trended drier and drier with this system? Something to watch today is total precip totals from this. Never saw this as a heavy precip event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 2 minutes ago, MD Snow said: Anybody else concerned about how the models have trended drier and drier with this system? Something to watch today is total precip totals from this. Not concerned about drier...do think daytime snow may be a bit of crusty wall booger but this appears to be a modest event for some at best...which I'm personally good with Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 1 minute ago, Ji said: 3 minutes ago, MD Snow said: Anybody else concerned about how the models have trended drier and drier with this system? Something to watch today is total precip totals from this. Never saw this as a heavy precip event Setup just a few runs ago argued for a somewhat high precip event and I do believe the models were spitting out 1-1.5 inches. But with the progressively flatter flow we are losing that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 3 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Not concerned about drier...do think daytime snow may be a bit of crusty wall booger but this appears to be a modest event for some at best...which I'm personally good with GFS just came in with under .5 inches. Any further cuts and you have to start questioning if rates can overcome the surface temps to give us anything more meaningful then a sloppy inch for the cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 6 hours ago, Deer Whisperer said: 50 more measly miles woooooo LWX zone forecast has route 28 as a dividing line in PWC. See what happens today but any more SE and weaker it won’t help any of us for accumulating snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 If you live near the cities hug the rgem, fv3, and hrdps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 8 minutes ago, MD Snow said: If you live near the cities hug the rgem, fv3, and hrdps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 @showmethesnow at this point I think we (the northern crew) need to stop rooting for a deamplification trend. The thermal boundary seems pretty locked in now and all the less amplified solutions are doing are killing the storm frankly. Yea a gfs type solution might get 2-3” into DC but at the expense of there being a 6”+ area anywhere. I hate rooting against a lot of snow in DC but if it means we get another 3-4” marginal event up here instead of 6-10” sorry I’m not taking another one for the team lol. I guess what I’m saying is given the depth of cold we have to work with I don’t see a way for this to be a big snow into DC. If it amps up enough it pushes the boundary to the NW and it’s a 6-10” snow NW VA and for us. If it trends weaker it might snow into DC but it’s no more than a 3-5” storm anywhere. I don’t want to see this be a repeat of early March 2014 and become the pathetic waste that turned into. Best case scenario is an amped solution that thumps enough to get some decent snows into the cities while still crushing our area. But that’s a tightrope act. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 I selfishly agree with PSU’s post above. I was encouraged that 00Z Euro looked to be on the high end for QPF among that model suite. That usually bodes well. Hopefully the 6Z EC didn’t take a step back . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 2, 2019 Author Share Posted March 2, 2019 I think you’re right @psuhoffman about the weaker/drier trend. I’m also a bit worried about surface temps tomorrow afternoon and evening. 3k NAM is above freezing for almost everyone south of the M/D line even while it’s snowing. If it’s ripping, that will accumulate at 33-34, but light snow will mostly be white rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 @WVclimo 6z euro. This is what’s from last night so adjust accordingly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Healthy mediums guys. 3-6” area wide with 6-8” up by PSU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Icefishingrocks Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 I'm as far east as you can possibly get in baltimore county. Living on Sue Creek I know I'm screwed no matter what happens. With that being said, i'll be rooting for the folks that have put down roots north and west of the cities. I hope you get crushed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 21 minutes ago, BristowWx said: LWX zone forecast has route 28 as a dividing line in PWC. See what happens today but any more SE and weaker it won’t help any of us for accumulating snow. A crappy, stale airmass isn't helping any of us. Need rates at the expense of over amped is not what we (PWC) do well. Either way, its something to track on an otherwise boring weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 2, 2019 Author Share Posted March 2, 2019 What are euro surface temps tomorrow afternoon and evening? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @showmethesnow at this point I think we (the northern crew) need to stop rooting for a deamplification trend. The thermal boundary seems pretty locked in now and all the less amplified solutions are doing are killing the storm frankly. Yea a gfs type solution might get 2-3” into DC but at the expense of there being a 6”+ area anywhere. I hate rooting against a lot of snow in DC but if it means we get another 3-4” marginal event up here instead of 6-10” sorry I’m not taking another one for the team lol. I guess what I’m saying is given the depth of cold we have to work with I don’t see a way for this to be a big snow into DC. If it amps up enough it pushes the boundary to the NW and it’s a 6-10” snow NW VA and for us. If it trends weaker it might snow into DC but it’s no more than a 3-5” storm anywhere. I don’t want to see this be a repeat of early March 2014 and become the pathetic waste that turned into. Best case scenario is an amped solution that thumps enough to get some decent snows into the cities while still crushing our area. But that’s a tightrope act. No doubt. I'm willing to the roll the dice if it means having a shot at 10 inches plus. Not only is the deamplification cutting back on qpf. it's also speeding the storm up making it roughly an eight hour event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 You guys are right this thing is drying out and the temps suck. 1-2" max 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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