psuhoffman Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Gfs wont get any credit from many but it appears to have schooled the euro several runs in advance. Nice run. One more shift and DC will be happy. Shame to get it south it has to be weaker. As it continues to shift south the max snow also gets cut down each run. We needed a deeper cold airmass so that we could get a juiced amped system and still stay south of us. Yes some snow is better than lots of rain but seeing the max snowfall dwindle from 10-20” to about 6-8 now and knowing if it does continue shifting south it might end up a 3-6” storm is kind of sad. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 00z HDRPS smokes DC. 4”+ and counting. I’d give my left pinky for 50+ miles more south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 5 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Yes sir. I just need 50 more miles. Make it happen Robert T Chill Hmmm...is there a way to get snow into DC without it cutting down on my totals up here? Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Surprised @Ji isn't all over tonights euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Kuchera but you have to subtract this from tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plow'n Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Just now, psuhoffman said: Kuchera but you have to subtract this from tonight What is kuchera? Seems like wishcast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 This reminds me of the March 2014 storms in the way it’s been trending south and weaker with time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Just now, Plow'n said: What is kuchera? Seems like wishcast? It uses critical thickness and temps at crucial layers to estimate snow ratios not just use 10-1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plow'n Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Just now, psuhoffman said: It uses critical thickness and temps at crucial layers to estimate snow ratios not just use 10-1. Gotcha, so as realistic of an estimate a model can get? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 LWX is going to be put into a hard situation. That is a razor thin line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 5 minutes ago, Fozz said: This reminds me of the March 2014 storms in the way it’s been trending south and weaker with time. I hope it doesn’t end up going down that road. I was in PA then but this area got fringed by both those waves in March 2014 after looking like the bullseye from 2 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 1 minute ago, Interstate said: LWX is going to be put into a hard situation They will have to adjust their forecast. No way around that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Just now, psuhoffman said: They will have to adjust their forecast. No way around that. Yep. But a lot of boom/bust potential here with this one. One degree will make all the difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plow'n Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Boom/bust sounds like march.. my wife says "this is when you walk away from the table". She's right as far as it goes to asphalt accumulations. You might get 10" worth of snow on asphalt that compacts to 3" over the duration Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I hope it doesn’t end up going down that road. I was in PA then but this area got fringed by both those waves in March 2014 after looking like the bullseye from 2 days out. Yeah I hope it doesn’t get to that point, though the DC crowd will disagree. I’d lock up this latest Euro run as it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 FWIW, EPS mean shifted SE by a good margin. Around 32 of the 50 members get the 2" marker through DCA. There are about 8 or so that get the 6" marker nearby 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 12z EPS from earlier today at 72 00z EPS at 60 from tonights run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stradivarious Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 255 AM EST Sat Mar 2 2019 Carroll-Northern Baltimore-Northwest Harford- 255 AM EST Sat Mar 2 2019 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING... ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Snow and freezing rain expected early this morning. Total snow accumulation of a coating to 2 inches and total ice accumulation of less than one tenth of an inch early this morning. Heavy snow possible Sunday and Sunday night. Snow accumulations of 5 inches or more are possible Sunday and Sunday night. * WHERE...Carroll, Northern Baltimore and Northwest Harford Counties. * WHEN...For the Winter Weather Advisory, until 7 AM EST this morning. For the Winter Storm Watch, from Sunday morning through Monday morning. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Roads may be slippery early this morning. Travel could be very difficult Sunday and Sunday night PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of snow, sleet or freezing rain will cause travel difficulties. Expect slippery roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving. A Winter Storm Watch means there is potential for significant snow, sleet or ice accumulations that may impact travel. Continue to monitor the latest forecasts. When venturing outside, watch your first few steps taken on steps, sidewalks, and driveways, which could be icy and slippery, increasing your risk of a fall and injury. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 255 AM EST Sat Mar 2 2019 VAZ026-027-029>031-040-501-503>505-507-WVZ506-021600- /O.EXA.KLWX.WS.A.0006.190303T1200Z-190304T1200Z/ Rockingham-Shenandoah-Page-Warren-Clarke-Rappahannock- Northern Fauquier-Western Highland-Eastern Highland- Western Loudoun-Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-Eastern Pendleton- 255 AM EST Sat Mar 2 2019 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible Sunday and Sunday night. Total snow accumulations of 5 or more inches are possible Sunday and Sunday night. * WHERE...Portions of northern and western Virginia and eastern West Virginia. * WHEN...From Sunday morning through Sunday night. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult Sunday and Sunday night. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Storm Watch means there is potential for significant snow, sleet or ice accumulations that may impact travel. Continue to monitor the latest forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 WSWs came to about the BR... and across N MD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 FWIW, 06z NAM has snow starting around 16z SUN at DCA... looks like some mod snow at 17z and 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 06z NAM looks slightly better than 00z... keeps up the slow push south ETA: I guess it depends on where you live tbh on if the run was slightly better or worse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 As the low that is affecting NYC area continues to pull away, expect the Sunday system to continue to trend slightly SE. If we can any semblance of a 50/50 out of it, game on. Looking good for far inland areas. Baltimore area still has a shot a significant snow as well. 00z tonight will be very telling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 5 hours ago, Fozz said: And the good thing is, hardly any of that is from tonight's system (except ~1" for the far north). 10 IMBY per CMC after showing about 2” earlier. Christ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 3k looks a tick South, but still looks to be 6-10 inch event for NW VA, Frederick, northern Montgomery, Western Howard, Carroll, North Balt County NE, does not look like the cities get much... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Have seen this setup too many times to know we will be 90% snow here in central HoCo along 108. Expect watches to be expanded SE by this afternoons package. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Actually a somewhat significant difference between the 06z NAM twins on how they handle the low to our south and when it is off the coast. Which is somewhat surprising considering we are getting into such short lead times and about the only major difference between the two is on resolution. 3K is running the low 50-100 miles south of the 12k as it runs to our south and also is much slower on amping the low up. By the time it is off MD's shores we have a 1000 mb low on the 3K vs 996 mb with the 12k. This weaker low results in the low being 100 miles or so farther east as it is slower to make its turn northward. Winning combo here would be a blend of the two. Southern track through the south on the 3k with the quicker ramp up of the 12K as it is hitting the coast. One other thing to note is that the 3k is drier then the 12k. Looking at roughly an inch+ through the DC/Balt corridor vs. .75+". We will need these rates as going by the 3k soundings we will be fighting a warm nose in the mid levels (850-750mb) even into the NW burbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 06Z GFS was a step back in the snowfall. Biggest issue here was it cut precip totals through the cities (DC/Balt) to under .5 inches. Farther south with the low across our south and exits the coast in a good spot (OBX) but it is slower to ramp up. Much better temp profile through the column with no indications of issues with a warm nose at mid-levels. Would be mostly or all snow through the cities. Throw a little quicker developing low as it exits the coast into the mix and I think those in the cities and N/W would be very satisfied. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 27 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: 06Z GFS was a step back in the snowfall. Biggest issue here was it cut precip totals through the cities (DC/Balt) to under .5 inches. Farther south with the low across our south and exits the coast in a good spot (OBX) but it is slower to ramp up. Much better temp profile through the column with no indications of issues with a warm nose at mid-levels. Would be mostly or all snow through the cities. Throw a little quicker developing low as it exits the coast into the mix and I think those in the cities and N/W would be very satisfied. I am ofc rooting for more of a GFS type solution, with a further SE track and later development. This type of evolution might get the mid levels cold enough for some snow here, probably towards the end of the event. Low probability though. Better chances along I-95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Overview from Mount Holly in their AM AFD: While there is still some uncertainty regarding the actual surface low track, the guidance has shifted more southeastward. This appears to be due to today`s storm getting a bit stronger east of New England, plus the 00z ECMWF in the northern stream presses the lead short wave farther east. This lessens the mid level divergence in the height fields and pushes more zonal thus keeping the southern short wave farther south (more toward the GFS solution). Other guidance is also a bit more south and east. This would tend to favor some colder thermal profiles, however a more southern track may also lessen the dynamic forcing to some extent especially the farther northwest one goes. Our region however is still forecast to get within the favorable right entrance region of a 250 mb jet. This will also help to strengthen the surface low as it tracks to our east. In addition, the incoming amplifying trough will produce a period of widespread large scale ascent, which will be augmented by a zone of stronger 850-700 mb frontogenetic forcing especially during the first half of Sunday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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