snowmagnet Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: I guess but if we toss the euro (I know) and the gfs as the two outliers isn’t all the rest of the guidance within a 15-20 error of a big snow? That’s not out of the question. I think we have had several surprises and last minute changes this year. I feel pretty good about the odds for Sunday night. And there's always the 9 day storm to look forward to... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Nobody mentioned the RGEM. But it would be pretty epic in the favored areas. A beat down in all honesty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 18z euro is SE of the 12z by a little. Track is identical to the 12k NAM. Through NW SC across southeast VA and southern Delmarva. Need another 50-75 mile adjustment. But it trended the right way. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 this is another setup with a closed upper low over canada. not a great year as far as general flow is concerned, but cold is cold, right? we're probably just used to seeking out a particular setup, which may raise more flags that needed. surface temps leading in look ok per the gfs. i think it's the upper levels that are not great. dews may not be great without a nice high bleeding in, but close enough that we may still be in the game. really need this track to be underneath, imo. as is, it's probably an elevation event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: 18z euro is SE of the 12z by a little. Track is identical to the 12k NAM. Through NW SC across southeast VA and southern Delmarva. Need another 50-75 mile adjustment. But it trended the right way. i'd feel pretty decent if i was in northern maryland for this. i don't know where the real infiltration of cold is going to come from for the fall line crew. we'll need a good track for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 18z euro is a beat down for HGR. It’s ~80-90% snow for my house. Flips for about 2 hours then back to snow according to the hourly plots. It starts as snow everywhere NW of 95 for a time. Looks a lot like the NAM now. At least it’s not the NW outlier anymore. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 8 minutes ago, 87storms said: i'd feel pretty decent if i was in northern maryland for this. i don't know where the real infiltration of cold is going to come from for the fall line crew. we'll need a good track for this one. My goal is to end the weekend with 8” otg. Have 2” right now left from last night...if I can get 2-3 of slop tonight and 3-5 from Sunday it’s very doable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Just now, psuhoffman said: My goal is to end the weekend with 8” otg. Have 2” right now left from last night...if I can get 2-3 of slop tonight and 3-5 from Sunday it’s very doable. You’ll get it. I have faith in Manchester. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricanegiants Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Northern Maryland seems tb jackpot this winter 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: My goal is to end the weekend with 8” otg. Have 2” right now left from last night...if I can get 2-3 of slop tonight and 3-5 from Sunday it’s very doable. I think you are underestimating Sunday. I think we are going to get hit pretty hard at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Just now, clskinsfan said: I think you are underestimating Sunday. I think we are going to get hit pretty hard at this point. Being guarded. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snjókoma Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 4 minutes ago, Hurricanegiants said: Northern Maryland seems tb jackpot this every winter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 5 minutes ago, BristowWx said: You’ll get it. I have faith in Manchester. Putting my climo chips on the table Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 5 minutes ago, Hurricanegiants said: Northern Maryland seems tb jackpot this winter Ha, what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Putting my climo chips on the table Yeah! Do it. You gots this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: 18z euro is a beat down for HGR. It’s ~80-90% snow for my house. Flips for about 2 hours then back to snow according to the hourly plots. It starts as snow everywhere NW of 95 for a time. Looks a lot like the NAM now. At least it’s not the NW outlier anymore. Would you be able to share how much QPF is progged ? The wife and I have an early a.m. appointment in Morgantown on Monday, and were considering traveling up there late on Sunday. The storm obviously affects that decision, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Being guarded. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: My goal is to end the weekend with 8” otg. Have 2” right now left from last night...if I can get 2-3 of slop tonight and 3-5 from Sunday it’s very doable. what's annoying is the track is really not bad right now, it's just the lack of a high that has me concerned for the lower elevations. kinda running out of time here, so if this is an elevation event, my jeep might be taking a cruise for this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 I realized that I might not get much if any snow. But what I do have is 120min IPA. When all else fails booze never lets you down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 3 minutes ago, 87storms said: what's annoying is the track is really not bad right now, it's just the lack of a high that has me concerned for the lower elevations. kinda running out of time here, so if this is an elevation event, my jeep might be taking a cruise for this. At least you wont have to go far. Just up 270 to Frederick should do the trick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 I made it to the trace line 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 9 minutes ago, Ji said: Yea and if clown snow maps were reality my climo would be more like Jay Peak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 16 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: I think you are underestimating Sunday. I think we are going to get hit pretty hard at this point. Yes, flood watches to be issued soon. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Euro nudged closer. Need a few more nudges. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 18 minutes ago, WVclimo said: Would you be able to share how much QPF is progged ? The wife and I have an early a.m. appointment in Morgantown on Monday, and were considering traveling up there late on Sunday. The storm obviously affects that decision, Subtract this from this and you get an idea 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Subtract this from this and you get an idea Thanks very much sir. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 26 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: At least you wont have to go far. Just up 270 to Frederick should do the trick. oh no doubt. ugly trek during rush hour traffic, but an easy one on the weekends. there was a time in the 90s where elevation was key. this has that vibe to it. the cold air is moving in, it's just lagging behind the system...which is better than a retreating high, at least for the higher elevations. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 3 hours ago, WxUSAF said: We’re likely not going to see a “decent” event out of this. Enjoy your slop. It still pads stats. Or maybe not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 NAM colder with 850mb temps through 30 hrs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 NAM looks to be a little south at 36hr. Compared to 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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