jaydreb Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Man this is going to be a close one. Looks like a classic forum divider. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 3 minutes ago, BristowWx said: What do you mean? Not as good as 12z but that's more because it's was a weaker all around system at 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Just now, Solution Man said: I thought it would cave now Ah. FV3 our to 54. Looks similar to 12z. Low is further SE but weaker. Not a lot. Walking the line like Johnny Cash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Frustrating system. If it's too strong, it's rain. If it's too weak, it's snow but it's probably not much more than we've already seen. Need a perfect balance just to get a decent storm out of this. Maybe we pull it off. Would like to see the Euro budge here in the next couple of runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 I guess a silver lining is, most modeling have us starting off as snow...but probably Snow TV tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 1, 2019 Author Share Posted March 1, 2019 We’re likely not going to see a “decent” event out of this. Enjoy your slop. It still pads stats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 12 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: We’re likely not going to see a “decent” event out of this. Enjoy your slop. It still pads stats. final call osfan? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Worst March ever....frustrating winter 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 4 minutes ago, Ji said: Worst March ever....frustrating winter I was pretty enthused about Sunday and Monday last night. 9 months until November. It’s practically here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Lol why do people keep posting useless snow maps? 2-4" is not falling I-95 points SE in any reasonable scenario. 100% chance of zero snow here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 2 minutes ago, BristowWx said: I was pretty enthused about Sunday and Monday last night. 9 months until November. It’s practically here. HRDPS all snow for the cities through 48hrs. All the mesos so far have us starting as all snow. RGEM stays all snow through the end us it's run. GFS and ICON have most N/W of cities staying all snow throughout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 1, 2019 Author Share Posted March 1, 2019 12 minutes ago, Ji said: Worst March ever....frustrating winter Are you over 30” yet? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Just now, MD Snow said: HRDPS all snow for the cities through 48hrs. All the mesos so far have us starting as all snow. RGEM stays all snow through the end us it's run. GFS and ICON have most N/W of cities staying all snow throughout. This is true. Can’t argue. Let’s see where we go from here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 34 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Frustrating system. If it's too strong, it's rain. If it's too weak, it's snow but it's probably not much more than we've already seen. Need a perfect balance just to get a decent storm out of this. Maybe we pull it off. Would like to see the Euro budge here in the next couple of runs. That was the red flag I didn’t like seeing on the eps several days ago where all the really amped up big snow solutions were north of us and the only hits seemed to be weak waves. Still would rather 3-6” of snow than rain but it was disappointing to see the boundary set up too far north such that an amped up solution wouldn’t work for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 13 minutes ago, Ji said: Worst March ever....frustrating winter Worst winter ever here..not really but still, it totally blows. Quit bitchin'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 What’s with the tone change suddenly? Isn’t the guidance about exactly where it was last night when people were really excited? I mean I kind of thought the excitement was a little bit much but now the gloom is too much and we’re basically exactly where we were 24 hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Just now, psuhoffman said: What’s with the tone change suddenly? Isn’t the guidance about exactly where it was last night when people were really excited? I mean I kind of thought the excitement was a little bit much but now the gloom is too much and we’re basically exactly where we were 24 hours ago. Yeah, if I lived in Manchester, MD, I would feel pretty damn good right now lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 1, 2019 Author Share Posted March 1, 2019 Just now, psuhoffman said: What’s with the tone change suddenly? Isn’t the guidance about exactly where it was last night when people were really excited? I mean I kind of thought the excitement was a little bit much but now the gloom is too much and we’re basically exactly where we were 24 hours ago. Because people assumed it would “trend” to some unrealistic 6-12”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Just now, C.A.P.E. said: Yeah, if I lived in Manchester, MD, I would feel pretty damn good right now lol. I’m talking about this sub in general not my yard. The mood suddenly turned pretty bleak this afternoon and I’m not sure why when everything came in pretty much like it was. Gfs is still snow. Euro still rain. Everything else some in between variation. It feels like nothings changed except the mood did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Back from the UK and could not muster up backing in the flow for a negative NAO.. Failed 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Just now, psuhoffman said: I’m talking about this sub in general not my yard. The mood suddenly turned pretty bleak this afternoon and I’m not sure why when everything came in pretty much like it was. Gfs is still snow. Euro still rain. Everything else some in between variation. It feels like nothings changed except the mood did. We had hope last night. Now we are 24 hrs closer to gametime and the guidance has not improved so the mood is darker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 1 minute ago, midatlanticweather said: Back from the UK and could not muster up backing in the flow for a negative NAO.. Failed I give you one lousy job to do... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Imo the only reason the NAM’s weren’t all snow for the cities was because they were crazy amped. Don’t see a ton of support for running the LPC over the Delmarva. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Just now, psuhoffman said: I’m talking about this sub in general not my yard. The mood suddenly turned pretty bleak this afternoon and I’m not sure why when everything came in pretty much like it was. Gfs is still snow. Euro still rain. Everything else some in between variation. It feels like nothings changed except the mood did. This is the way we roll. But there is some truth to location. Pick your zip code and your fate is sealed. I hope you get crushed on Sunday. I like your chances. Get the shovels ready! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 19 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I’m talking about this sub in general not my yard. The mood suddenly turned pretty bleak this afternoon and I’m not sure why when everything came in pretty much like it was. Gfs is still snow. Euro still rain. Everything else some in between variation. It feels like nothings changed except the mood did. No idea. No feel for the mood, as I have barely had time to skim through the models, let alone the threads. Maybe because of that, I have a 'fresh' POV. This set up blows for the coastal plain. That's pretty much it. There would have to be pretty significant 'positive' changes on guidance in a pretty short time-frame for this to become a decent event for places other than the NW areas. Not impossible, but unlikely IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 4 minutes ago, jaydreb said: We had hope last night. Now we are 24 hrs closer to gametime and the guidance has not improved so the mood is darker. I guess but if we toss the euro (I know) and the gfs as the two outliers isn’t all the rest of the guidance within a 15-20 error of a big snow? That’s not out of the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 5 minutes ago, jaydreb said: We had hope last night. Now we are 24 hrs closer to gametime and the guidance has not improved so the mood is darker. Hello darkness my old friend...buy you a beer? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 I’m talking about this sub in general not my yard. The mood suddenly turned pretty bleak this afternoon and I’m not sure why when everything came in pretty much like it was. Gfs is still snow. Euro still rain. Everything else some in between variation. It feels like nothings changed except the mood did. It's not the storm per say but its this winter and March. Nothing exciting...the same kind of storms where backedge shows up when the snow starts.... no bombs this year....just a boring lame winter 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 1 hour ago, Ji said: Worst March ever....frustrating winter It is the FIRST day of March. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 I'm going to end the Winter with about 25". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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