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March 3-4, 2019 Snow Discussion and Obs


WxUSAF
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Frustrating system. If it's too strong, it's rain. If it's too weak, it's snow but it's probably not much more than we've already seen. Need a perfect balance just to get a decent storm out of this. Maybe we pull it off. Would like to see the Euro budge here in the next couple of runs.

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2 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

I was pretty enthused about Sunday and Monday last night.  9 months until November.  It’s practically here. 

HRDPS all snow for the cities through 48hrs. All the mesos so far have us starting as all snow. RGEM stays all snow through the end us it's run.  GFS and ICON have most N/W of cities staying all snow throughout. 

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Just now, MD Snow said:

HRDPS all snow for the cities through 48hrs. All the mesos so far have us starting as all snow. RGEM stays all snow through the end us it's run.  GFS and ICON have most N/W of cities staying all snow throughout. 

This is true.  Can’t argue.  Let’s see where we go from here.  

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34 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Frustrating system. If it's too strong, it's rain. If it's too weak, it's snow but it's probably not much more than we've already seen. Need a perfect balance just to get a decent storm out of this. Maybe we pull it off. Would like to see the Euro budge here in the next couple of runs.

That was the red flag I didn’t like seeing on the eps several days ago where all the really amped up big snow solutions were north of us and the only hits seemed to be weak waves. Still would rather 3-6” of snow than rain but it was disappointing to see the boundary set up too far north such that an amped up solution wouldn’t work for us. 

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What’s with the tone change suddenly?  Isn’t the guidance about exactly where it was last night when people were really excited?  I mean I kind of thought the excitement was a little bit much but now the gloom is too much and we’re basically exactly where we were 24 hours ago. 

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

What’s with the tone change suddenly?  Isn’t the guidance about exactly where it was last night when people were really excited?  I mean I kind of thought the excitement was a little bit much but now the gloom is too much and we’re basically exactly where we were 24 hours ago. 

Yeah, if I lived in Manchester, MD, I would feel pretty damn good right now lol.

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

What’s with the tone change suddenly?  Isn’t the guidance about exactly where it was last night when people were really excited?  I mean I kind of thought the excitement was a little bit much but now the gloom is too much and we’re basically exactly where we were 24 hours ago. 

Because people assumed it would “trend” to some unrealistic 6-12”.

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Just now, C.A.P.E. said:

Yeah, if I lived in Manchester, MD, I would feel pretty damn good right now lol.

I’m talking about this sub in general not my yard. The mood suddenly turned pretty bleak this afternoon and I’m not sure why when everything came in pretty much like it was. Gfs is still snow. Euro still rain. Everything else some in between variation. It feels like nothings changed except the mood did. 

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

I’m talking about this sub in general not my yard. The mood suddenly turned pretty bleak this afternoon and I’m not sure why when everything came in pretty much like it was. Gfs is still snow. Euro still rain. Everything else some in between variation. It feels like nothings changed except the mood did. 

We had hope last night.  Now we are 24 hrs closer to gametime and the guidance has not improved so the mood is darker.  

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

I’m talking about this sub in general not my yard. The mood suddenly turned pretty bleak this afternoon and I’m not sure why when everything came in pretty much like it was. Gfs is still snow. Euro still rain. Everything else some in between variation. It feels like nothings changed except the mood did. 

This is the way we roll. But there is some truth to location.  Pick your zip code and your fate is sealed.  I hope you get crushed on Sunday.  I like your chances.  Get the shovels ready!

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19 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I’m talking about this sub in general not my yard. The mood suddenly turned pretty bleak this afternoon and I’m not sure why when everything came in pretty much like it was. Gfs is still snow. Euro still rain. Everything else some in between variation. It feels like nothings changed except the mood did. 

No idea. No feel for the mood, as I have barely had time to skim through the models, let alone the threads. Maybe because of that, I have a 'fresh' POV. This set up blows for the coastal plain. That's pretty much it. There would have to be pretty significant 'positive' changes on guidance in a pretty short time-frame for this to become a decent event for places other than the NW areas. Not impossible, but unlikely IMO.

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4 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

We had hope last night.  Now we are 24 hrs closer to gametime and the guidance has not improved so the mood is darker.  

I guess but if we toss the euro (I know) and the gfs as the two outliers isn’t all the rest of the guidance within a 15-20 error of a big snow?  That’s not out of the question. 

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I’m talking about this sub in general not my yard. The mood suddenly turned pretty bleak this afternoon and I’m not sure why when everything came in pretty much like it was. Gfs is still snow. Euro still rain. Everything else some in between variation. It feels like nothings changed except the mood did. 

It's not the storm per say but its this winter and March. Nothing exciting...the same kind of storms where backedge shows up when the snow starts.... no bombs this year....just a boring lame winter

 

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