Steve25 Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 I don't like that the best case scenario model has the entire snow falling with temperatures above freezing. Verbatim the GFS shows 5-8 inches in Central Maryland but you have to think with those temps it would be way less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paxpatriot Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Never like seeing the Euro go in the wrong direction, but it still looks like a decent hit for the NW folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 3 minutes ago, BristowWx said: It’s not over yet. That's right. Have to wait till this present storm exits, especially since the snow line is so close. Last chance to use the toy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Can someone post the 12z euro snow map please. Don’t have access attm and would like to compare to gfs see how much spread we need to cover over next couple model runs.. Thanks in advance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 2 minutes ago, PivotPoint said: Can someone post the 12z euro snow map please. Don’t have access attm and would like to compare to gfs see how much spread we need to cover over next couple model runs.. Thanks in advance Includes tonight as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 That's a pretty stout HP in the NW. Too bad it's not a couple of hundred miles to the east, or less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 4 minutes ago, LP08 said: Includes tonight as well Thanks Man, so close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Obviously an IMBY post. But the Euro looks good for the 81 corridor. And it is not that far from getting almost everyone NW into the game. As a plus it is not like the Euro has been it's usual self this winter. It has had it's share of being wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 1 minute ago, Wonderdog said: That's a pretty stout HP in the NW. Too bad it's not a couple of hundred miles to the east, or less. Yes. The changes we need are not impossible. We are talking 10s of miles. Still this beats tracking spring. FV3 would be epic for us. Pray. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 4 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Yes. The changes we need are not impossible. We are talking 10s of miles. Still this beats tracking spring. FV3 would be epic for us. Pray. Totally agree with you. To start march with the potential for three-four straight days of wintry weather is about as good as it gets. I'm not in the best place for the next two events but I'm enjoying tracking it almost as much as if I was. Hoping at least the northern crew can really cash in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 18 minutes ago, LP08 said: Includes tonight as well Someone needs to tell the Euro where the fall line is. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 My peeps over at accuweather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 One of the things I like to watch as we approach the short range is how the 3K NAM lines up with the globals. Watch the NAM over the next several runs and compare to the EURO/GFS. It did a nice job with today's system. (MAP is from WEATHERBELL. It seems it lets me copy the American maps, but Mods let me know if I should not post. Thanks.) Looking at the 850s, Using this as a guide, it would appear the rain/snow line will be North of 70 and SW of North Western Montgomery, Western Howard, and Western Fairfax. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Watches just went up for the western counties in the 81 corridor. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 155 PM EST Fri Mar 1 2019 MDZ003-501-502-VAZ028-WVZ050>053-501>504-020300- /O.NEW.KLWX.WS.A.0006.190303T1200Z-190304T1200Z/ /O.CON.KLWX.WW.Y.0018.000000T0000Z-190302T0900Z/ Washington-Extreme Western Allegany-Central and Eastern Allegany- Frederick VA-Hampshire-Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson-Western Grant- Eastern Grant-Western Mineral-Eastern Mineral- 155 PM EST Fri Mar 1 2019 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY... ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Snow and freezing rain this afternoon and tonight. Heavy snow possible Sunday and Sunday night. New snow accumulations of up to two inches and ice accumulations of up to one tenth of an inch through tonight. Additional snow accumulations of 5 inches or more possible Sunday and Sunday night. * WHERE...Portions of north central and western Maryland, northwest Virginia and eastern West Virginia. Ice will be primarily confined to higher elevations until tonight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Frederick County, MD also has a Winter Storm Watch 7pm Sunday-7:00am Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 I do feel the pain of those 30-50 miles to the East on this one. (It is not a given that anyone east of the Appalachians and south of the MD line is getting anything yet.) I spent my first 30 years living east of the Capital Beltway. A slight shift SE is still possible with this one for various reason already posted. I have one stupid question. Do the models take into account forecasted snow fall when predicting air temperatures? What I'm asking is whether the 2 inches tonight in the Northern tier could factor into surface temperatures Saturday and Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 17 minutes ago, Weather Will said: One of the things I like to watch as we approach the short range is how the 3K NAM lines up with the globals. Watch the NAM over the next several runs and compare to the EURO/GFS. It did a nice job with today's system. (MAP is from WEATHERBELL. It seems it lets me copy the American maps, but Mods let me know if I should not post. Thanks.) Looking at the 850s, Using this as a guide, it would appear the rain/snow line will be North of 70 and SW of North Western Montgomery, Western Howard, and Western Fairfax. That 0 is western PWC is over my house. I assume this is an expected snowfall map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 No, it is the 850 line. Wintry precip should be falling NW of that line 7pm Sunday (form will vary depending if all levels are 0 celsius or lower.) Just now, BristowWx said: That 0 is western PWC is over my house. I assume this is an expected snowfall map? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 NAM 3K Snow map which includes tonight through 7ET. (12z run) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 1 hour ago, Ji said: blue in Loudoun Color blind much? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said: Color blind much? Zoom in to like super extreme NW Loudoun and there is like a speck of blue lol 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 18z 12kNAM ramping up the coastal. 3mb deeper through 20hrs and closer to the coast compared to 12z. Will be interesting to see how this affects Sunday/Monday if at all. ....Through 36hrs 850's are further south than 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 13 minutes ago, MD Snow said: 18z 12kNAM ramping up the coastal. 3mb deeper through 20hrs and closer to the coast compared to 12z. Will be interesting to see how this affects Sunday/Monday if at all. ....Through 36hrs 850's are further south than 12z. Flatter through 42 as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 22 minutes ago, yoda said: Zoom in to like super extreme NW Loudoun and there is like a speck of blue lol Cast the green from thine own county, then shalt thou see the speck of blue in Loudoun! (or something like that?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 NaM trying to do it. Colder V’s 12z so far. Had rain at 51 hours 12z. Now snow at 45. Still spotty tho. Gotta wait for that main slug. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Heights are lower but the storm is a smidge stronger so it might be a wash. Nice to start as snow though for everyone north of EZF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 12k nam with snow breaking out at 15z sunday morning. The arctic boundary is pushing further southeast this run up in canada it's reflected in better looking 850's through 45hrs out. I'm beginning to think that we need to root for a stronger NS low...so far that's why we've seen improvements... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Still not where we want it but it’s inching closer. We need to do something that is painful for us all: root for NeW England to get destroyed tomm 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Just now, stormtracker said: Still not where we want it but it’s inching closer. We need to do something that is painful for us all: root for NeW England to get destroyed tomm If it will help you all get snow then I am rooting for new england to get crushed BAD, so bad they have to crawl out of their 4th story windows because of drifts. Then I root for the Mid Atlantic to get utterly annihilated by snow. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 12k is about 1-2" before the flip sunday morning for the cities. man, that is close...get that low to track 100 miles south through nc to about 100 miles off the coast of oc and we'd be bombed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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