WxUSAF Posted March 2, 2019 Author Share Posted March 2, 2019 I have to say, I’m pretty happy with the 12z suite for MBY so far. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I was trying to be sub centered in that post. Not everyone is on a 1000 foot ridge on the northern edge of the region. What might prevent this from being a better result for more of the forum imo is the lack of true cold ahead of the wave. The track is workable if we had that. Might mix some but probably would still be a nice event into the cities. But with the stale marginal cold in place it creates a double bind for 95 south. More amped and waa easily presses warm layers into the region. Less amped and don’t get the dynamics needed to overcome the marginal surface temps. Places without any elevation are stuck in that double bind and walking a tightrope needed just enough amp to get a thump and not enough to press the whole mid level boundary north. A colder antecedent airmass would have solved that and gave all of us more upside here. Yeah and that will keep the snow from sticking to the roads and will cause schools to be 2 hours late instead of off for Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Per 3k it looks like a mid to late afternoon start time as snow and we become rate dependent in the cities after that. Gonna need to see how well this system holds together on its trek across the mountains. I don’t think this is a system you want light/steady rates with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Well, it's looking bleak for us in the metro areas and I'm about ready to concede. GFS has snow, but surface temps blah blah blah. Not feeling this one now. Looks good for the usual N and W crew (Hey Leesburg). This is shaping up to be a classic forum divider. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 40 minutes ago, WVclimo said: Forecast high for MRB today is 47. Currently socked in with fog at 33. Hourly forecast says 40 by noon and 47 at 3:00. Have to go south to SHD to find a 40 degree reading currently. Will be interesting to see how the day goes. Hoping to preserve some kind of snow pack leading into tomorrow morning. I’m following this like you. Fog combined with the inch of mostly ice from last night is preserving my snowpack a bit. I’m really rooting for some to survive to tomorrow as every little bit helps given the marginal temps. Even a 1 degree difference from snowcover can be huge here. I’m cautiously optimistic but I know with the high dew points all it would take is an hour of sunshine this afternoon and we can kiss our snow goodbye. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 5 or more is my threshold...if not...well i just wasted another week of my failed life 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 34 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Then the GFS is for you my friend. I think we will see snow fall from the sky tomorrow. Not sure where the fail line sets up but looks ok 95 and west north I’m gonna take the rgem, gfs, fv3 blend and call it a storm. Obviously the 6+ totals in east pwc won’t happen but i can dream. If it doesn’t improve for mby then whatever. I just want snow. Don’t even really care how much or if it sticks. Beats cold rain. If the fv3 could be right for once I’d be happy. Bar has officially been set low for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Very tight gradient on hrdrps. Nw of a BWI to IAD line it’s a pretty good beat down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChangeYourScreenname Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 16 minutes ago, Ji said: 5 or more is my threshold...if not...well i just wasted another week of my failed life I’m telling you the next one!!! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChangeYourScreenname Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 The Canadian would be a delight for my area. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 11 minutes ago, Deer Whisperer said: I’m gonna take the rgem, gfs, fv3 blend and call it a storm. Obviously the 6+ totals in east pwc won’t happen but i can dream. If it doesn’t improve for mby then whatever. I just want snow. Don’t even really care how much or if it sticks. Beats cold rain. If the fv3 could be right for once I’d be happy. Bar has officially been set low for me. Tomorrow is March 3rd. If we see snow fall from the sky (accumulating or not) I’d say that’s a win. Sure it would be great to get a big one but how often does east PWC score 3+ inches in March? Sure it happens but like a 2 or 3 times a decade I’d bet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 If we get 4 inches out here I’d be fine. Def not bullish on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 It won't take a lot to make me happy. Setting my bar at 2.75" which gets me to climo for the winter. Still plenty of snowcover IMBY with the addition from early this morning hoping that keeps the chill in the air for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Really not sure what to expect here in Fulton - I think I’d rather be solidly in it or solidly out of it than be right on the line lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Forecast high is 43, currently 35 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 4" would be fine. I would love more, but gotta be real. In general the call in my area is 2 - 4 inches with highest elevations maybe getting to 5" - NWS calling for 5" IMBY, but I am going with 4.. and hope I am wrong! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CatoctinRN Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 I hate to ask IMBY but what time should this threat start in N. Frederick and Carroll County MD tomorrow? I have a very bad vehicle and am supposed nto travel from Emmitsburg to Westminster tomorrow evening to pick up a family member. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 40 minutes ago, Deer Whisperer said: I’m gonna take the rgem, gfs, fv3 blend and call it a storm. Obviously the 6+ totals in east pwc won’t happen but i can dream. If it doesn’t improve for mby then whatever. I just want snow. Don’t even really care how much or if it sticks. Beats cold rain. If the fv3 could be right for once I’d be happy. Bar has officially been set low for me. Sounds good. It will most likely be RA/SN mix for a few hours before just RN for most of PWC is my bet. No real accumulation. I’m all in for that. If we get some sleet even better. This should be a good one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 5 minutes ago, CatoctinRN said: I hate to ask IMBY but what time should this threat start in N. Frederick and Carroll County MD tomorrow? I have a very bad vehicle and am supposed nto travel from Emmitsburg to Westminster tomorrow evening to pick up a family member. I would leave early in the morning, say 7am. You don't want to be out there driving around in the evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: Sounds good. It will most likely be RA/SN mix for a few hours before just RN for most of PWC is my bet. No real accumulation. I’m all in for that. If we get some sleet even better. This should be a good one! Yep agree, it is what it is, at least we can see a few flakes, I'm good with that, everything else is a bonus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notvirga! Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 10 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: 4" would be fine. I would love more, but gotta be real. In general the call in my area is 2 - 4 inches with highest elevations maybe getting to 5" - NWS calling for 5" IMBY, but I am going with 4.. and hope I am wrong! It seems like you've done pretty well this winter. I've busted low I think on every lwx forecast lol. I hope it's not like this every year in Owings Mills; I'm new to Baltimore County Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 1 minute ago, notvirga! said: It seems like you've done pretty well this winter. I've busted low I think on every lwx forecast lol. I hope it's not like this every year in Owings Mills; I'm new to Baltimore County Actually been low myself - so I hope I am again Want more always! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 3 minutes ago, notvirga! said: It seems like you've done pretty well this winter. I've busted low I think on every lwx forecast lol. I hope it's not like this every year in Owings Mills; I'm new to Baltimore County From my obs. driving I-795 from Westminster and back (for many years) the Owings Mills area always seems to do pretty well overall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 1 minute ago, notvirga! said: It seems like you've done pretty well this winter. I've busted low I think on every lwx forecast lol. I hope it's not like this every year in Owings Mills; I'm new to Baltimore County Nah, Owings Mills/Reisterstown is generally one of the better spots if not the best for the immediate closer burbs. I'm from that area. Lived there for 35 years. Pretty good elevation for only being 10-15 miles outside of the city. Some spots are over 700 ft. Always better to be above the northwest side of the beltway. There can be fairly dramatic differences depending on whether your closer to the beltway on reisterstown rd. or farther north toward the rt.140/30 split. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 5 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Euro is bullish Tuesday morning for lows near 0 . Fairly rare for March even up this way And barely gets us to 20 for the high on Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeg0305 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Nah, Owings Mills/Reisterstown is generally one of the better spots if not the best for the immediate closer burbs. I'm from that area. Lived there for 35 years. Pretty good elevation for only being 10-15 miles outside of the city. Some spots are over 700 ft. Always better to be above the northwest side of the beltway. There can be fairly dramatic differences depending on whether your closer to the beltway on reisterstown rd. or farther north toward the rt.140/30 split.Parkton’s got you beat 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Icefishingrocks Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 57 minutes ago, Buildthewall said: Yes please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now