snowfan Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Surface temps look to be 33-34 during that nice front end thump on the 3k. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 @Jeff B The 3K NAM looks pretty good for us, better than the previous run. Just about all snow north of the beltway.. and 33 with moderate to heavy rates should be able to do it. I will point out though that there is a warm layer around 770mb... it almost reaches freezing but not quite. So if it's slightly warmer up there, we could get mixing with sleet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 12K NAMing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 6 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: Yep. There will be next to no accumulation south of Winchester. Typical March event. You could root for way south weak and rain for all. C.A.P.E did that and who knows ...it could happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 8 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said: 3K has a nice snow burst from 3-5pm for most of us Yeah, 3k is like 1-2" on grass for cities followed by rain. At this point i'd take that. 95 north and west stay mostly snow. Slight improvements on both NAM's. They are slightly drier though compared to 6z. Interested to see what the RGEM and HRDPS show... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 1 minute ago, Scraff said: 12K NAMing? snow maps, blah. 6z looked better even easter of the cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 1 minute ago, Scraff said: 12K NAMing? The snow map doesn’t make sense with what the conditionals show for our area. So one of them is wrong. Shows how tight this storm is though. Got to think elevation plays a role 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Just now, MD Snow said: snow maps, blah. 6z looked better even easter of the cities. Easter? Lol that’s a few weeks away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 I advise you all to use caution when looking at the FV3. Feedback per a recent model discussion I attended indicate it has been running too cold and wet. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 2 minutes ago, MD Snow said: snow maps, blah. 6z looked better even easter of the cities. Snow maps are flawed, but the drying trend is obvious when looking at them. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Just now, WVclimo said: Snow maps are flawed, but the drying trend is obvious when looking at them. Those included snow from last night. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 29 minutes ago, usedtobe said: Not for you, probably go with 1-3 for you and 2-4 in Winchester. I'm certainly not impressed for DC. Thanks I got the idea...I'm happy with any snow...I was primarily piling onto the negative vibe the crew here was spewing...I'm good either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 2 minutes ago, MD Snow said: Those included snow from last night. Half of nothing is nothing. I know what you mean though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 1 minute ago, MD Snow said: Those included snow from last night. That's a good point, but especially from my yard westward there wasn't much progged for last night. 2" at most on the NAM runs from yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 3 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: Half of nothing is nothing. I know what you mean though. The Nam snow maps were showing 2-5” for last nights coastal pretty much region wide fyi...even with that things have been looking drier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 I’m 6.4” shy of 30”, doubt I get that but would be nice to get close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 3 hours ago, leesburg 04 said: That seems bullish to me. Good. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 2 minutes ago, mappy said: I’m 6.4” shy of 30”, doubt I get that but would be nice to get close I think 4-5 is a lock for you 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Icefishingrocks Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: I will honor your sacrifice. Those about to snow salute you I'll be thinking of those of you who are enjoying the snow as I go down with ship and crash and burn here in the swamps of baltimore county. It's so frickin close on the 12z NAM though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 51 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: Yep, could just be plain rain and no snow at all. Ok you need to chill. There are some places in this sub that will get snow. Some people will be happy with only 2-3” and a lot of people in the northern 1/2 here have a shot at that. And places that aren’t in a shadow in the northwest 1/3 might get a significant snow. Not everyone lives in a snow hole. Im very sympathetic to you. I’ve lived in shadow zones before. Pine Grove PA was one. State College is actually a frustrating place if you like big storms. Where I lived near Philly along the Delaware River was one. Between the UHI and the near sea level elevation and there was often more snow in every direction. Get out of the Delaware valley on either side and snowfall went up. I know how much it sucks. So I moved. I know not everyone can just move. And I truly remember how frustrating it was living in a shadow zone and yours is likely worse. But I also know your issues are local. A lot of those storms that failed in your yard were very good snows all around you. Your pessimism towards your yards situation is warranted but projecting that onto the whole region isn’t accurate. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Lots of bold calls for 1-2" lol verification will be fun come Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 2 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Lots of bold calls for 1-2" lol verification will be fun come Monday When the schools all are delayed or closed for wet roads... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 46 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said: Yeah but it’s hard for me to believe that snow is going to accumulate well in the mid afternoon around the metros. We need to switch back to snow in the mid to late evening and pick up a couple of inches at the end Agree but as the storm is trending more progressive there is less and less lift on the back side after the low clears. That’s where the dry trend is coming from. The front still has a decent thump of precip but we lost the back half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Looks like 12z Icon shifted r/s line about 25 miles north. A shift I cannot afford. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 12z icon is a smidge stronger so it has the rain snow line north of the cities after some initial slop. Will obviously be a nowcast thing where it sets up but this is much more fun to track than the Rainer that was on all guidance a few days ago. Snow falling at anytime is a win for me at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Just now, jaydreb said: Looks like 12z Icon shifted r/s line about 25 miles north. A shift I cannot afford. Yeah it’s been pretty steady. Definitely more amped this go around. Furthest west it’s been in days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 1 minute ago, jaydreb said: Looks like 12z Icon shifted r/s line about 25 miles north. A shift I cannot afford. Is the icon really good at this stuff at this range? Would not put much stock in that model for such specific info. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 12Z RGEM looks like a nice front end for the metro areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 24 minutes ago, Icefishingrocks said: I'll be thinking of those of you who are enjoying the snow as I go down with ship and crash and burn here in the swamps of baltimore county. It's so frickin close on the 12z NAM though. Yea but like I feared it’s also one more slight bump weaker from being no significant snow anywhere. That 6”+ area keeps shrinking and is close to being completely gone of it deamplifies anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 1 minute ago, WVclimo said: 12Z RGEM looks like a nice front end for the metro areas. The whole run is a crush job for us NW folks. Starts early and hits hard for a few hours. Great run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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