EastCoast NPZ Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 2 minutes ago, snowmagnet said: Not completely true. For the DC area, they said conversational snow changing to rain most likely, but they also said this could change and they will update this afternoon. Yep, could just be plain rain and no snow at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Given the marginal temps and the heaviest rates being very close to the r/s line, there is probably going to be a very narrow band of accumulating snow. Even narrower than what is being forecasted. Less than an inch an hr won’t cut it imo. I honestly think areas that just barely stay all snow may have the best opportunity for higher acculations. It’s not like temps drop off into the 20’s the further north and west you go. The best you’re gonna get is 31-32 even if you’re in a really good location. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 I'm having a bad feeling that the dividing line at the height of the storm will be around Shawan Rd. Hope I'm wrong and it's further south, but I've seen several events where the rain/snow line ended up between Shawan Rd and Middletown Rd. I don't know if there will be a last minute bump north, but those of us who are south of 39.5N can't really afford it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jeff B Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Agree Fozz...its painfully close to us who live on the west ridge but just far enough south. Fingers crossed on this one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Love waking up to fresh snow on the ground and a winter storm watch 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Good news for us 95'ers. Tony Pann's Deep Thunder is a beat down for the 95 corridor. LOL. Get your shovels and snow blowers ready. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 2 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Good news for us 95'ers. Tony Pann's Deep Thunder is a beat down for the 95 corridor. LOL. Get your shovels and snow blowers ready. Any maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 1 minute ago, osfan24 said: Good news for us 95'ers. Tony Pann's Deep Thunder is a beat down for the 95 corridor. LOL. Get your shovels and snow blowers ready. Now you're talking. Deep thunder/rpm is the new euro/eta Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 18 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: 3-6” is a good storm for us anytime, let alone march. If I had to WAG right now, I’d say 2-3” for us and @Scraff, but we might have to measure it in batches with melting or rain in between. 3-5” by I70, and 4-8” for the far NW folks. I mean what’s another stats padder right? Obviously I / we are rooting for a few last minute small shifts that can pull us up to warning criteria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 7 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Good news for us 95'ers. Tony Pann's Deep Thunder is a beat down for the 95 corridor. LOL. Get your shovels and snow blowers ready. OMG. How many cases of beer should I run out and grab? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Nam coming in good and souther through 30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 20 minutes ago, Jeff B said: Agree Fozz...its painfully close to us who live on the west ridge but just far enough south. Fingers crossed on this one. Yep, it will be a very close call. We tend to do well in marginal events where elevation is the main factor, and precip is already falling as snow. Sometimes you'll see white rain along York Rd while there is accumulating snow west of I-83 around Jenifer Rd. But when the rain/snow line (or wintry mix/snow line) splits Baltimore county, our latitude is not always our friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 12k is a nice front end thump before changing to rain for the cities. PSU’s dream for his back yard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 41 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: CWG just cancelled the event...just conversational sleet/snow changing to rain. Not for you, probably go with 1-3 for you and 2-4 in Winchester. I'm certainly not impressed for DC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 4 minutes ago, MD Snow said: 12k is a nice front end thump before changing to rain for the cities. PSU’s dream for his back yard. eh.... surface temps are 33-34 so without good rates it will just be white rain for the cities, before changing to actual rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 5 minutes ago, MD Snow said: 12k is a nice front end thump before changing to rain for the cities. PSU’s dream for his back yard. Yeah but it’s hard for me to believe that snow is going to accumulate well in the mid afternoon around the metros. We need to switch back to snow in the mid to late evening and pick up a couple of inches at the end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 5 minutes ago, usedtobe said: Not for you, probably go with 1-3 for you and 2-4 in Winchester. I'm certainly not impressed for DC. Do you think the NAM has a better handle on QPF and temp profiles than the Canadian mesos? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Just now, BaltimoreWxGuy said: Yeah but it’s hard for me to believe that snow is going to accumulate well in the mid afternoon around the metros. We need to switch back to snow in the mid to late evening and pick up a couple of inches at the end Looks pretty heavy to me when it starts...enough to whiten everything up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 12Z NAM mixes as far north in the Valley as OKV. I stay all snow, but <.40" QPF through hr 39. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 52 minutes ago, ChesterfieldVa80 said: Haha. Really? They have minimal elevation (1700), but being just a few miles from the West Virginia line in Shenandoah County I thought they may do ok. Who knows I would head up to Whitetail. They should do really well with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 1 minute ago, WVclimo said: 12Z NAM mixes as far north in the Valley as OKV. I stay all snow, but <.40" QPF through hr 39. It stays all snow to OKV. More like a Stephen City flip....But that isnt surprising. Just ask EastCoast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 If Wes isnt impressed, I dont know what you all are chasing. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Here we go again. Sun angle mid day snow posts hahaha. If the rates are there, so is the sticking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Just now, jayyy said: Here we go again. Sun angle mid day snow posts hahaha. If the rates are there, so is the sticking. But the rates will also be questionable since the event has been trending drier and flatter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 3K has a nice snow burst from 3-5pm for most of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 3K is really nice on the front end. Even into the cities. Ninja'd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 2 minutes ago, Fozz said: But the rates will also be questionable since the event has been trending drier and flatter. Exactly. That’s the kicker. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: It stays all snow to OKV. More like a Stephen City flip....But that isnt surprising. Just ask EastCoast Yep. There will be next to no accumulation south of Winchester. Typical March event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 The onset on the 3K is a couple hrs later than 12k which in my opinion is good. I’d rather get the snow burst after 3 and have a chance of it still snowing near sunset than at noon or 1 and already mixing with or changing to rain by 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Metro Baltimore stays right on the rain snow line thru the duration on the 3K. Lol that’ll make for a difficult forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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