SnowGoose69 Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 20 minutes ago, dryslot said: It didn't. Yeah it makes zero sense though. You’re not getting an amped system like that on Sunday night behind this. The Euro will likely gradually tick flatter with that starting at 00Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: All snow This is awesome. The model is showing SE NE's geography benefit. It's like that is where the model thinks the coast-line should be but Mass just juts out into the marine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Just now, SnowGoose69 said: Yeah it makes zero sense though. You’re not getting an amped system like that on Sunday night behind this. The Euro will likely gradually tick flatter with that starting at 00Z I think some of it depends on how much of that lakes shortwave late in the game tries to phase in...doesn't really affect the storm itself too much at SNE's latitude but a stronger interaction does lower the heights behind that Saturday storm...we saw it on the 18z GFS. The 18z euro didn't really do it enough. But I could see it doing that on future runs if it amps up on Saturday a little further. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Just now, SnowGoose69 said: Yeah it makes zero sense though. You’re not getting an amped system like that on Sunday night behind this. The Euro will likely gradually tick flatter with that starting at 00Z Moreso then 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 NAM will be north of 18z not a shock though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Going to be a good hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHERMINATOR Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 3 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: NAM will be north of 18z not a shock though About to get nam’d Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Little further south then it looked originally but a huge improvement over 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 It's not as organized as the Euro...it's NW of the 18z run, but the 18z run was actually a better looking storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 It’s doing a little jig first...gah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 NAM only partially biting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 We toss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 1 minute ago, OSUmetstud said: We toss I'm shamelessly tossing it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: It's not as organized as the Euro...it's NW of the 18z run, but the 18z run was actually a better looking storm. The NAM has been extremely weird as of late (and by late for quite a while). One of my professors pointed it out. Part of the struggles with this system too is we’re not dealing with a consolidated piece of energy. There are numerous pieces of energy embedded within the flow and the models are struggling vastly. It’s certainly a good sign though that as we get closer to the 24-hr mark we’re nudging towards solutions of higher snow as opposed to less snow. one thing I’ve always liked are how tightly packed the thermal gradient is...that’s always a signal for not only solid banding, but a good indicator of where it can be anticipated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: The NAM has been extremely weird as of late (and by late for quite a while). One of my professors pointed it out. Part of the struggles with this system too is we’re not dealing with a consolidated piece of energy. There are numerous pieces of energy embedded within the flow and the models are struggling vastly. It’s certainly a good sign though that as we get closer to the 24-hr mark we’re nudging towards solutions of higher snow as opposed to less snow. one thing I’ve always liked are how tightly packed the thermal gradient is...that’s always a signal for not only solid banding, but a good indicator of where it can be anticipated. NAM definitely looks very "convective-ish" this run....several blobs of it as the low is trying to organize more. The low seems to string out and chase one of those blobs that is near the BM at 30 hours and then just chases it northeast preventing this thing from becoming nice and consolidated like other model guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 I'm probably going with 1-3 NW of Hartford and 3-6 elsewhere in the state for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: NAM definitely looks very "convective-ish" this run....several blobs of it as the low is trying to organize more. The low seems to string out and chase one of those blobs that is near the BM at 30 hours and then just chases it northeast preventing this thing from becoming nice and consolidated like other model guidance. Seema to be a huge bias of the NAM in these types of setups and struggles mightily. I thought the GFS May have had a good handle with this and even the look on the euro has been intriguing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 How wet will this be? Will it be a 31-32 degree paster even interior? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 8 minutes ago, CT Rain said: I'm probably going with 1-3 NW of Hartford and 3-6 elsewhere in the state for now. Thats what I had last night.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: How wet will this be? Will it be a 31-32 degree paster even interior? Negative...it's pretty darn cold at 900mb so the snow is going to be pretty dry....interior will prob be that classic 27F snow. Coastline could be a little closer to freezing...so those areas, esp SE MA may have to watch for paste. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Negative...it's pretty darn cold at 900mb so the snow is going to be pretty dry....interior will prob be that classic 27F snow. Coastline could be a little closer to freezing...so those areas, esp SE MA may have to watch for paste. Cf prob in cj land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 NAM definitely looks very "convective-ish" this run....several blobs of it as the low is trying to organize more. The low seems to string out and chase one of those blobs that is near the BM at 30 hours and then just chases it northeast preventing this thing from becoming nice and consolidated like other model guidance.Exactly, was mentioning this earlier as a reason for multiple 18z models suddenly collapsing on a big event... Earlier runs for the past day had diffuse / dual low structure chasing pieces of vorticity further eastThere must have been some new sampling of the vorticity (currently pieces over the Rockies and Texas) or something to make all the solutions jump like that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 10 minutes ago, CT Rain said: I'm probably going with 1-3 NW of Hartford and 3-6 elsewhere in the state for now. Not buying gfs and euro? interesting there....chief CT weenie downer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Thats what I had last night.. Nice, good call. I hadn't spent a ton of time on it but wasn't too confident in a bigger event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Not buying gfs and euro? interesting there....chief CT weenie downer. Bob can take em up in the morning. Don't want to go too high. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Not buying gfs and euro? interesting there....chief CT weenie downer. Its just never wise to do a 180 in one shift.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Its just never wise to do a 180 in one shift.. Yeah...18z could've been an over-trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Yeah...18z could've been an over-trend. I think it has the right idea...you would hope, at this range lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think it has the right idea...you would hope, at this range lol From a synoptic pattern perspective, the bigger solution does look pretty reasonable...we've got a negatively tilted shortwave loaded with gulf moisture. There's not a lot that wants to shove it east on a scenario like that. Seems you either string it out with convection or somehow get a weaker system overall because the shortwave trends weaker...but we aren't seeing the latter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Its just never wise to do a 180 in one shift.. And jump to really high numbers, like many others have said on here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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