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Perhaps a Coastal Storm on March 2nd for SNE????


USCAPEWEATHERAF
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Took a quick look... 18z GFS is not unrealistic. 12z and earlier runs of GFS emphasized a piece of vorticity way OTS so we get a dual low system in the Sat 12z-18z timeframe... 18z emphasizes vorticity closer to coast, so we get a more consolidated single system near benchmark

0z to 12z Euro hints at same struggle in another way: 0z has a consolidated low further out, 12z briefly has a dual low structure that would be much more impactful if everything consolidates around the benchmark low sooner.

So I wouldn't toss 18z GFS reflexively... and I would not be surprised to see Euro ramp up due to a synoptically more consolidated and tighter low. Sort of like the 18z RGEM

Too bad flow doesn't buckle until later in week, this (and the system after it too, and pretty much any strong shortwave coming through) would have had big dog potential

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Looks like the 18z RGEM never ran....so we lose that piece of guidance for this cycle.

Looks like a Met in NYC got it and it seems like good news

24 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

18Z RGEM also more amped; 994 over the Benchmark at 18Z Saturday. 3mb deeper than the 12Z run, closed 700 low is also deeper. Hard to see for sure on the b&w maps but it looks wetter from NYC up to BOS.

 

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I hope SNE gets buried. Not only do they deserve it after what they've endured this season, but this is the time of the year where people quickly stop thinking about skiing if they don't see snow. And the more they think about skiing the more they come up and the better we do in the tourism industry. And I like making money. :D

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16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Here comes the 21z rpm now. It's gonna be massive for at least SE MA

Tried to slide E at the last second but still very good for SE areas. 6"+ from GHG to UUU with 10-12" around the canal. Gets 3" prob back to ORH and TOL. But that was reallly close to being a lot bigger. 

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25 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I’d take Reggie, but the herp is quite a bit south of it.

Funny 18z suite...

3k NAM > 12k NAM

RGEM >> HRPDS

GFS!!!

ICON!!!

There's clearly something that made multiple models jump at 18z... I think it at least has something to do with the handling of vorticity I mentioned earlier, and whether we get a diffuse / dual low structure vs. a tighter consolidated closer low.

One reason to tap the brakes is EPS / Euro is pretty consistent. But wouldn't be surprised to see that jump by 0z tonight too, or at least the Euro's version of smaller shuffles.

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