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Perhaps a Coastal Storm on March 2nd for SNE????


USCAPEWEATHERAF
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22 minutes ago, BombsAway1288 said:

 

Not bad considering all the rain. Did better than 80% or so of this sub-forum

I may be an inch high....I didn’t measure but in Brewster it only rained in the morning and then we flirted with the mix line all day but it never stopped snowing and it snowed hard from like 9:00 to 1:00 or so.....and it’s been mood snow the rest of the day....Harwich a little closer to the mix being on the south side that cut down total.....was fun to get opportunity to be on cape in a snow storm 

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One of my worst busts...probably only worse one was an event last March. I won't be neglecting to consider H85 inflow anymore.

Only area I got right was the cape, but I had precip type issues as the limiting factor, so can't Judah myself a fraud victory, there.

D-

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2019/03/saturday-32-verification.html

1286183133_VerifySplit.thumb.png.8b3afee5ab9199ad3098474af644236d.png

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4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

One of my worst busts...probably only worst one was an event last March. I won't be neglecting to consider H85 inflow anymore.

Only area I got right was the cape, but I had precip type issues as the limiting factor, so can't Judah myself a fraud victory, there.

D-

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2019/03/saturday-32-verification.html

1286183133_VerifySplit.thumb.png.8b3afee5ab9199ad3098474af644236d.png

However.....rain did occur early on this morning out here on the Cape......I'm in Brewster tonight.....thing was after about 9:00am it changed to snow and came heavy.....rates were awesome but it was very pasty so it compacted quickly.....dual pol indicated mix line was held at bay right along the southern Cape coast line.....really great experience being out here for a winter storm that delivered snow.....

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7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

One of my worst busts...probably only worst one was an event last March. I won't be neglecting to consider H85 inflow anymore.

Only area I got right was the cape, but I had precip type issues as the limiting factor, so can't Judah myself a fraud victory, there.

D-

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2019/03/saturday-32-verification.html

1286183133_VerifySplit.thumb.png.8b3afee5ab9199ad3098474af644236d.png

Ended up with 6" plus or minus out here in Brewser.......nice call....was closer than some others....

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2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I was forcast to get 0............lol, So that's a Win, Win, Hows the pack on the cape?..................:lol:

I mean ok.....but you acted like your sub 3" was more than "most got in SNE".....which it wasn't......even the Cape owned you.....haha

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1 minute ago, ice1972 said:

I mean ok.....but you acted like your sub 3" was more than "most got in SNE".....which it wasn't......even the Cape owned you.....haha

 

12 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I think i'm sitting with more right now then some received in SNE from this storm, Still coming down but the end is near...................:lol:

 

lol

 

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2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

One of my worst busts...probably only worst one was an event last March. I won't be neglecting to consider H85 inflow anymore.

Only area I got right was the cape, but I had precip type issues as the limiting factor, so can't Judah myself a fraud victory, there.

D-

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2019/03/saturday-32-verification.html

1286183133_VerifySplit.thumb.png.8b3afee5ab9199ad3098474af644236d.png

Thanks Ray. My map busted just as badly and I wrote some tail-between the legs emails to coworkers when the writing was on the wall Friday night.

It was a tough forecast, and maybe in retrospect it should not have been.

I think we (and essentially 100% of posters here Mets and hobbyists and water-vapor-watchers alike, and lots of TV forecasters, and NWS) were heavily influenced by guidance which across the board was a disaster. Literally everything from ensembles 2-3 days before to Euro (had warning eastern 1/3 of MA < 24 hours before onset) to mesos and short term hi-res models (Sat 9z HRRR was literally showing 0 snow north of Boston just 6 hours before there was 3" on the ground) had one of the worst performances I can remember. Complete blind dart board performance.

I acknowledged the warning flags with my forecast (buckshot diffuse vorticity, convection sliding east and robbing moisture influx, not much kink in flow), but the guidance seemed plausible and we've had cases when vorticity consolidates just right and a system amps more than progged.

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6 hours ago, wxsniss said:

Thanks Ray. My map busted just as badly and I wrote some tail-between the legs emails to coworkers when the writing was on the wall Friday night.

It was a tough forecast, and maybe in retrospect it should not have been.

I think we (and essentially 100% of posters here Mets and hobbyists and water-vapor-watchers alike, and lots of TV forecasters, and NWS) were heavily influenced by guidance which across the board was a disaster. Literally everything from ensembles 2-3 days before to Euro (had warning eastern 1/3 of MA < 24 hours before onset) to mesos and short term hi-res models (Sat 9z HRRR was literally showing 0 snow north of Boston just 6 hours before there was 3" on the ground) had one of the worst performances I can remember. Complete blind dart board performance.

I acknowledged the warning flags with my forecast (buckshot diffuse vorticity, convection sliding east and robbing moisture influx, not much kink in flow), but the guidance seemed plausible and we've had cases when vorticity consolidates just right and a system amps more than progged.

It was not an easy forecast at all. We can often talk about some of the flags in hindsight but there were plenty of reasons it could have gone bigger too. We've seen systems where mesos struggle and the globals are able to better handle the system without getting confused by smaller vort maxes. Heck, even the euro had a very strong sig over E MA as late as 18z on Friday...not even 12 hours before the storm started. 

Its not easy to ignore that type of guidance. It's a lot easier to toss guidance when we're dealing with stuff like CAD, but when the Euro says we have to go decently big 12 hours before the storm, it's not easy when the mesos are skeptical. 

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