78Blizzard Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Ukie still has some good QPF for both systems combined for BOS areas south, although far SE areas would have some mixed precip and rain, especially on the Monday event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 1 minute ago, ice1972 said: So Cape special? When my fanny is actually firmly parked on the elbow in Brewster......wheeeeeee!!!!! I am looking at current radar and man if I hadn't read in here I'd think a foot is on the way......that doesn't look half bad unless it just hits a wall and scoots due east.......I'm sure something will happen and I'll get porked like every other god damn POS storm this season.....lol I think you may rain half of tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 1 minute ago, weathafella said: I think you may rain half of tomorrow Like I said......porked 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 i hope it just hits the cape, i want to enjoy a stress free drive to and back from MS tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Just got back in from being out and what an ugly set of runs.....buuuut, still gotta watch that area moving into NYC. Guidance has been fizzling that too quickly all night...it actually may end up benefitting CT more than anywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Started down here about 40 minutes ago, now ramping up nicely. 31/27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Just got back in from being out and what an ugly set of runs.....buuuut, still gotta watch that area moving into NYC. Guidance has been fizzling that too quickly all night...it actually may end up benefitting CT more than anywhere. I agree. It's making good progress NE, and HRRR/RAP are keeping it going for a while. By the time it gets to Boston may be a different story, but the same models have been bringing the enhancement back a little in SE MA. Snow coming down good after an initial brief period of sleet in NYC. Hopefully this is one where many of us shafted ones can win at least a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 It does seem as though that bright band running Philly NE under NYC has hit a wall though.....its not advancing.....banding signature it looks to me with that screw zone on the northern side.....is this the thing hitting the wall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 3 minutes ago, ice1972 said: It does seem as though that bright band running Philly NE under NYC has hit a wall though.....its not advancing.....banding signature it looks to me with that screw zone on the northern side.....is this the thing hitting the wall? Bright banding is sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Bright banding is sleet. ugh......porked all around...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Can't wait to shovel water in the morning out here on the Cape......love all around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Dual pol suggests still snow in Manhattan? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 6 minutes ago, ice1972 said: Dual pol suggests still snow in Manhattan? Sleet line is south of Staten Island, around New Brunswick area. Most of NYC is snow except Rockaways. Poster from the Bronx said almost an inch already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 12 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Sleet line is south of Staten Island, around New Brunswick area. Most of NYC is snow except Rockaways. Poster from the Bronx said almost an inch already. snowing at JFK so the Rockaways should be all snow too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Heavy snow here in Brooklyn NY 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 It's cute that we're all trying to nowcast this thing back and all but every single piece of 0z guidance went east and away. It's over for any chance at a warning snowfall for everywhere. What an incredibly piss poor performance by all models! We finally got our consensus! It's 2019, you'd think by now that we wouldn't be having significant swings in the majority of guidance 24 hrs out. Maybe it's just the volatile pattern idk, I give up and I'm not trusting any model for monday's storm no matter what it's showing until it's under 12 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 1" new, 30/28 with moderate snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Ripping snow here in south Brooklyn NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 46 minutes ago, WeatherX said: 1" new, 30/28 with moderate snow Nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 39 minutes ago, BombsAway1288 said: It's cute that we're all trying to nowcast this thing back and all but every single piece of 0z guidance went east and away. It's over for any chance at a warning snowfall for everywhere. What an incredibly piss poor performance by all models! We finally got our consensus! It's 2019, you'd think by now that we wouldn't be having significant swings in the majority of guidance 24 hrs out. Maybe it's just the volatile pattern idk, I give up and I'm not trusting any model for monday's storm no matter what it's showing until it's under 12 hours Overall in the grand scheme of things we always complain about modeling being off. But many times the parameters used for model verification are not necessarily QPF or snowfall predictions, so a lot of these “busts” are thrown under the rug. The models are tools to be used by meteorologists to use with their own knowledge, experience, and common sense to make a forecast. It’s been essentially meso vs global for the last 48 hours and the trends have not been good at all. BOX NWS might bust a little high but if you read their AFDs for the last 36 hours they haven’t liked this storm one bit. I’m sure at the end of the day someone will look at these types of model shifts in a forecast for such a large populated area as ours within the 12-24 hr timeframe on the global models but overall the higher res guidance has been sniffing out this outcome for at least 24 hours. That being said what a long strange winter it’s been... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Nice 2" new now, really coming down. Good luck to you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 23 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: The one time Sipprell should be going wild and he decides to cite fast flow as the reason for a small event . He’s one of those guys that looks for things that aren’t there and makes huge events out of nothing, and when a big event is imminent he downplays it I guess Sipprell does know something about this storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Sleet, 33. Aka “The bird”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 10 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said: I guess Sipprell does know something about this storm... Huh? It’s snowing and it’s here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianW Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Nice band along the CT shoreline. Heavy snow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Huh? It’s snowing and it’s here Sorry - not necessarily calling you out. Just going back 24 hours on why they were worried totals were going to be low like they are trending now, and we were giving him h-e double hockey sticks for going against the modeling at the time. It’s also not snowing where I am... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Just now, bristolri_wx said: Sorry - not necessarily calling you out. Just going back 24 hours on why they were worried totals were going to be low like they are trending now, and we were giving him h-e double hockey sticks for going against the modeling at the time. It’s also not snowing where I am... No I mean it def isn’t as wild as it looked at this time yesterday, but a nice solid 3-6” is just beginning and maybe a bit more SE. To his credit , he didn’t buy in on the huge totals . Seems like you should flip over to snow pretty quickly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Moderate snow becoming heavy. Feel pretty good about 2-5 for most, not much more than that esp in northern CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnno Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Northwest Hartford county and not even a flake yet we’ll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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