CoastalWx Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Still probably need to watch that curl on Philip radar and see how that goes for srn areas and SE areas as Bob said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Bad luck again 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 You know the writing is on the wall when some of the main posters fade away in the thread through the day. Any snow is good snow at the end of the day.... but 3” is a far cry from 15” some models were showing yesterday. Big time fail for most guidance... no spin necessary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: You know the writing is on the wall when some of the main posters fade away in the thread through the day. Any snow is good snow at the end of the day.... but 3” is a far cry from 15” some models were showing yesterday. Big time fail for most guidance... no spin necessary Many said not to buy that because it didn’t make sense. So shame on those that did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 14 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Bad luck again Perfect example, actually. Good call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Many said not to buy that because it didn’t make sense. So shame on those that did. I never bought it...but it was still modeled. I have been on the conservative train with this one.... we were sitting in a precarious position for big snow, and we got porked. now we see what we can salvage, if much at all. Some of the short range stuff looks like 2” here and that’s about it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiger_deF Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: we were sitting in a precarious position for big snow, and we got porked. Sums up the entire SE MA winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I never bought it...but it was still modeled. I have been on the conservative train with this one.... we were sitting in a precarious position for big snow, and we got porked. now we see what we can salvage, if much at all. Some of the short range stuff looks like 2” here and that’s about it I never bought the uber solutions, but took the bait on moderate...hook, like and sinker. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: I never bought the uber solutions, but took the bait on moderate...hook, like and sinker. Yeah last night that looked good I thought too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah last night that looked good I thought too. I mean...show me closed mid levels at hour 12, and you'll get me every time. Almost need to just blindly forecast as little snow as possible, at this point....only thing that works this season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Soooo... Ya. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I mean...show me closed mid levels at hour 12, and you'll get me every time. Almost need to just blindly forecast as little snow as possible, at this point....only thing that works this season. To be fair, the inflow is not good. You close off a mid level low with 50kts of inflow and you get a different result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: To be fair, the inflow is not good. You close off a mid level low with 50kts of inflow and you get a different result. Thanks. Where do you look to determine that, 250mb winds? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah last night that looked good I thought too. they dont call me Ji-nx for nothing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 yikes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Thanks. Where do you look to determine that, 250mb winds? 850-700. 850 has a weak LLJ and H7 is still virtually open and weak inflow. It’s not the end all be all, but something I noticed. Usually when we get the good banding, we get H7-H5 convergence or deformation by packing the thermo gradient with strong winds. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 3 minutes ago, Ji said: they dont call me Ji-nx for nothing If we lost Monday, there will be trouble in the hills outside of DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: 850-700. 850 has a weak LLJ and H7 is still virtually open and weak inflow. It’s not the end all be all, but something I noticed. Usually when we get the good banding, we get H7-H5 convergence or deformation by packing the thermo gradient with strong winds. Man, what a rough season. As much as I'd like to forget it, need to learn from it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Man, what a rough season. As much as I'd like to forget it, need to learn from it. I thought maybe some mid level magic would happen as well. But yeah I can see what is going on too in hind sight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 20 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: 850-700. 850 has a weak LLJ and H7 is still virtually open and weak inflow. It’s not the end all be all, but something I noticed. Usually when we get the good banding, we get H7-H5 convergence or deformation by packing the thermo gradient with strong winds. So if I looked at hour 12 and instead of open I saw a H7 closed contour that would be much better given that h85 has one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 The main post-mortem reasons were there from the beginning: - flat H5 with barely a kink in the flow - diffuse piecemeal vorticity that never really consolidates The 18z models Thurs showed how it could possibly all work out, and we’ve been selectively looking to corroborate that since... Another wishful WV watch (I remember Tip mocking us for some late night vigils we held with Messenger hoping for satellite / radar trends that never materialized). Sometimes they do pay off. I criticize myself for getting swept in the groupthink... like “convective feedback”, we collectively chase overconfident posts and go down a track that might be wrong. To be fair, lots of maps out there may bust high including NWS. And overall pretty piss poor performance by all guidance, ensembles to short term hi res models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 16 minutes ago, weathafella said: So if I looked at hour 12 and instead of open I saw a H7 closed contour that would be much better given that h85 has one? H7 closed is good. You want that just south of you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 12 minutes ago, wxsniss said: The main post-mortem reasons were there from the beginning: - flat H5 with barely a kink in the flow - diffuse piecemeal vorticity that never really consolidates The 18z models Thurs showed how it could possibly all work out, and we’ve been selectively looking to corroborate that since... Another wishful WV watch (I remember Tip mocking us for some late night vigils we held with Messenger hoping for satellite / radar trends that never materialized) I criticize myself for getting swept in the groupthink... there’s a lot of “convective feedback” in overconfident posts here, and we collectively go down a track that might be wrong. To be fair, lots of maps out there may bust high including NWS. And overall pretty piss poor performance by all guidance, ensembles to short term hi res models. I’m having a hard time thinking this is a bust looking at the current radar. Just saying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 4 minutes ago, weathafella said: I’m having a hard time thinking this is a bust looking at the current radar. Just saying Maybe wishful thinking but the last HRRR/RAP run got a bit more potent further north. The radar does look encouraging coming into this area at least. Hopefully the sleet stops advancing-the same models change it over to snow when it gets going around NYC. But 0.5-1 degree too cold at 850 and it's mostly pellets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 19 minutes ago, weathafella said: I’m having a hard time thinking this is a bust looking at the current radar. Just saying There really is tons of convection blowing up over southeast PA heading northeast... that would be a great sign... problem is how much this stuff circled below yanks everything east Greatest pressure falls are also by SEPA / NJ... not much and those can jump around but if we can continue that, we may have something going... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 FV3 GFS was too far SE for a time but looks like it had a better handle on this than the op overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 0z Euro southeast by a good amount... warning limited to Cape, advisory southeastern 1/2 of SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 9 minutes ago, wxsniss said: There really is tons of convection blowing up over southeast PA heading northeast... that would be a great sign... problem is how much this stuff circled below yanks everything east Greatest pressure falls are also by SEPA / NJ... not much and those can jump around but if we can continue that, we may have something going... I'm on team "stuff circled below", but crazy how much this is a nowcast event with the ludicrous shifts within 24 hours. And then we have the next event under 48 hours out subject to the same shifts based on this event. Glad I'm not doing this for a living tonight. Lots of egg about to be splattered on someone's face. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 This is history. I was told by DIT at noon today, that I did not “understand the weather”, when I said this was slipping away, and we’d be lucky to get advisory snow in most of CT....Hmmmm???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 3 minutes ago, wxsniss said: 0z Euro southeast by a good amount... warning limited to Cape, advisory southeastern 1/2 of SNE So Cape special? When my fanny is actually firmly parked on the elbow in Brewster......wheeeeeee!!!!! I am looking at current radar and man if I hadn't read in here I'd think a foot is on the way......that doesn't look half bad unless it just hits a wall and scoots due east.......I'm sure something will happen and I'll get porked like every other god damn POS storm this season.....lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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