CoastalWx Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 There isn’t really a north push. This would have to develop and tug a conveyor belt into SNE. I don’t know, just not sure about that yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: There isn’t really a north push. This would have to develop and tug a conveyor belt into SNE. I don’t know, just not sure about that yet. That is my biggest fear and what I was heavily basing my map on. Not going to make any changes...just going to keep as is. Would love to stay up for GFS, but tired and think I have strep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted March 2, 2019 Author Share Posted March 2, 2019 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: That is my biggest fear and what I was heavily basing my map on. Not going to make any changes...just going to keep as is. Would love to stay up for GFS, but tired and think I have strep Yeah I can barely stay awake right now, I need to be awake for when the snow starts up tonight. Bands already moving past ACK, but ACK is not reporting any precipitation, not sure what the official observations say, Brian can you check that out when you get a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted March 2, 2019 Author Share Posted March 2, 2019 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: There isn’t really a north push. This would have to develop and tug a conveyor belt into SNE. I don’t know, just not sure about that yet. Scott if it helps any, the precipitation in bands is moving NNEward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: There isn’t really a north push. This would have to develop and tug a conveyor belt into SNE. I don’t know, just not sure about that yet. Correct. This is more an issue of whether or not convection robs us of some ML deformation fun. I’m hedging towards the former rather then the latter based up what I’ve seen and my gut. It’s all good fun. BOX is now in a perfect position to play both ways. They had to play catch up over the last couple days when it became apparent there was going to a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 10 minutes ago, wxsniss said: Yeah I liked your map. I’ve been hedging around a 4-8/6-12 Boston south all day so went with 5-10. It’s pretty much a Euro/GFS blend with some recognition of mid level features. I’ll be nervous for both of us... I think we know by 1-2am tnite where this is headed. If this tugs east, the western zones and maybe even northeast MA may bust too high. Hopefully this goes ballistic and I’ll gladly bust low. Yea, same rationale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted March 2, 2019 Author Share Posted March 2, 2019 There is good news on satellite imagery, the line of thunderstorms east of NC are actually developing much closer to the coast of Cape Hatteras. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 7 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Correct. This is more an issue of whether or not convection robs us of some ML deformation fun. I’m hedging towards the former rather then the latter based up what I’ve seen and my gut. It’s all good fun. BOX is now in a perfect position to play both ways. They had to play catch up over the last couple days when it became apparent there was going to a storm. Ditto on where I’m leaning. Fun. Sticking the neck out here and going against the field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted March 2, 2019 Author Share Posted March 2, 2019 I would say around 3-6z tongiht is when the crucial part of the surface low development and track come into play as the convection matures off the coast, that is when the models pivot the low more northward then eastward. Patience everyone, soon the satellite will look like its supposed to with the low moving up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted March 2, 2019 Author Share Posted March 2, 2019 Greatest pressure falls as of this hour are over Norfolk and the SE Virginia region, not over Cape Hatteras, NC, that means the low may be developing further northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Eh, I dunno, maybe it's just a classic radar fake out, but this system doesn't look overly encouraging at the moment in my hood. Fast flow with much more of an easterly component than northerly. Gonna be close unless it really starts to develop in the next few hours. Maybe I'll wake up to pounding dendrites in the morning and eat my words, but I wouldn't be surprised to wake up to a dusting with a few light grains falling either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted March 2, 2019 Author Share Posted March 2, 2019 Just now, Hoth said: Eh, I dunno, maybe it's just a classic radar fake out, but this system doesn't look overly encouraging at the moment in my hood. Fast flow with much more of an easterly component than northerly. Gonna be close unless it really starts to develop in the next few hours. Maybe I'll wake up to pounding dendrites in the morning and eat my words, but I wouldn't be surprised to wake up to a dusting with a few light grains falling either. Be patient, the main development is just getting underway, between 3-6z is when the low really starts to take off right off the Delmarva. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 1 minute ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Be patient, the main development is just getting underway, between 3-6z is when the low really starts to take off right off the Delmarva. We'll see, Jim. Good luck in your hood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 4 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Greatest pressure falls as of this hour are over Norfolk and the SE Virginia region, not over Cape Hatteras, NC, that means the low may be developing further northward. The lowest pressures are around Hatteras now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 New rdps is paltry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted March 2, 2019 Author Share Posted March 2, 2019 Just now, 78Blizzard said: The lowest pressures are around Hatteras now. Yes but the greatest pressure fall couplet, is over Norfolk, and SE Virginia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 1 minute ago, OSUmetstud said: New rdps is paltry. Ouch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted March 2, 2019 Author Share Posted March 2, 2019 1 minute ago, Hoth said: Ouch. I wouldn't worry about that unless the 00z GFS comes in agreement. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 5 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: New rdps is paltry. That would be a kick in the Timbits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 5 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: New rdps is paltry. Yikes. A light advisory event for all of SNE... save for the Cape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 6 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: New rdps is paltry. I keep waiting for the last minute NW push or increase in precip on these models...but that doesnt seem to be happening, it has been steadily down hill since yesterday at 18z. I think 2-4 ends up being pretty common around here. At least the air isn't bone dry like it has been the past few days so it shouldn't take long to get the precip to make it to the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Yikes. A light advisory event for all of SNE... save for the Cape 9-7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metagraphica Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 10 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: New rdps is paltry. Very sad that messenger is no longer with us. This combined with the radar give me the feeling that this would the perfect storm for him to diagnose. There'd be arguments for pages of him telling us the storm isn't coming and everyone else talking about delusions of the radar showing northerly movement. I might be wrong, but this definitely feels and looks like it's going to be an under performer. I think she's going wide right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted March 2, 2019 Author Share Posted March 2, 2019 I'm heading to bed, waking up in a few hours to check on the storm's progress. Hopefully, the GFS is right with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiger_deF Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 If this storm really does bust low majorly then this winter is a solid F- in my book. Never seen so many storms go wrong at the last minute Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 I was just going to say… Extrapolating radar doesn't snow north of New York City. But like Will and I were talking about earlier's radar and satellite and stuff can be deceiving. We'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeonPeon Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 1 minute ago, metagraphica said: Very sad that messenger is no longer with us. This combined with the radar give me the feeling that this would the perfect storm for him to diagnose. There'd be arguments for pages of him telling us the storm isn't coming and everyone else talking about delusions of the radar showing northerly movement. I might be wrong, but this definitely feels and looks like it's going to be an under performer. What is underperforming at this point? Isn't the consensus for an advisory save a tiny slice of eastern mass? Just because we're all hoping it overperforms that, and we got a little taste of it on the models yesterday, just because this winter has been awful, doesn't mean our expectations shouldn't at least acknowledge that? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 IKON is paltry, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Just now, tiger_deF said: If this storm really does bust low majorly then this winter is a solid F- in my book. Never seen so many storms go wrong at the last minute F - !? Not the dreaded minus F. Pay attention folks. Very rarely is there a winter actually worse than a failure. Wtf does that mean, F- haha 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Yeah the writing is on the wall. Onto Monday hopefully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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