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Perhaps a Coastal Storm on March 2nd for SNE????


USCAPEWEATHERAF
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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

There isn’t really a north push. This would have to develop and tug a conveyor belt into SNE. I don’t know, just not sure about that yet.

That is my biggest fear and what I was heavily basing my map on. Not going to make any changes...just going to keep as is. Would love to stay up for GFS, but tired and think I have strep 

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1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

That is my biggest fear and what I was heavily basing my map on. Not going to make any changes...just going to keep as is. Would love to stay up for GFS, but tired and think I have strep 

Yeah I can barely stay awake right now, I need to be awake for when the snow starts up tonight.  Bands already moving past ACK, but ACK is not reporting any precipitation, not sure what the official observations say, Brian can you check that out when you get a chance.

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

There isn’t really a north push. This would have to develop and tug a conveyor belt into SNE. I don’t know, just not sure about that yet.

Correct.  This is more an issue of whether or not convection robs us of some ML deformation fun.  I’m hedging towards the former rather then the latter based up what I’ve seen and my gut.  It’s all good fun.  BOX is now in a perfect position to play both ways.  They had to play catch up over the last couple days when it became apparent there was going to a storm.

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10 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

 


Yeah I liked your map. I’ve been hedging around a 4-8/6-12 Boston south all day so went with 5-10.

It’s pretty much a Euro/GFS blend with some recognition of mid level features.

I’ll be nervous for both of us... I think we know by 1-2am tnite where this is headed. If this tugs east, the western zones and maybe even northeast MA may bust too high. Hopefully this goes ballistic and I’ll gladly bust low.

 

Yea, same rationale.

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7 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Correct.  This is more an issue of whether or not convection robs us of some ML deformation fun.  I’m hedging towards the former rather then the latter based up what I’ve seen and my gut.  It’s all good fun.  BOX is now in a perfect position to play both ways.  They had to play catch up over the last couple days when it became apparent there was going to a storm.

Ditto on where I’m leaning. Fun. Sticking the neck out here and going against the field. 

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I would say around 3-6z tongiht is when the crucial part of the surface low development and track come into play as the convection matures off the coast, that is when the models pivot the low more northward then eastward.  Patience everyone, soon the satellite will look like its supposed to with the low moving up the coast.

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Eh, I dunno, maybe it's just a classic radar fake out, but this system doesn't look overly encouraging at the moment in my hood. Fast flow with much more of an easterly component than northerly. Gonna be close unless it really starts to develop in the next few hours. Maybe I'll wake up to pounding dendrites in the morning and eat my words, but I wouldn't be surprised to wake up to a dusting with a few light grains falling either. 

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Just now, Hoth said:

Eh, I dunno, maybe it's just a classic radar fake out, but this system doesn't look overly encouraging at the moment in my hood. Fast flow with much more of an easterly component than northerly. Gonna be close unless it really starts to develop in the next few hours. Maybe I'll wake up to pounding dendrites in the morning and eat my words, but I wouldn't be surprised to wake up to a dusting with a few light grains falling either. 

Be patient, the main development is just getting underway, between 3-6z is when the low really starts to take off right off the Delmarva.

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6 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

New rdps is paltry. 

 

rgem_tprecip_slp_neng_11.png

I keep waiting for the last minute NW push or increase in precip on these models...but that doesnt seem to be happening, it has been steadily down hill since yesterday at 18z. I think 2-4 ends up being pretty common around here. At least the air isn't bone dry like it has been the past few days so it shouldn't take long to get the precip to make it to the ground.

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10 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

New rdps is paltry. 

 

rgem_tprecip_slp_neng_11.png

Very sad that messenger is no longer with us.  This combined with the radar give me the feeling that this would the perfect storm for him to diagnose.  There'd be arguments for pages of him telling us the storm isn't coming and everyone else talking about delusions of the radar showing northerly movement.  I might be wrong, but this definitely feels and looks like it's going to be an under performer.  I think she's going wide right.

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1 minute ago, metagraphica said:

Very sad that messenger is no longer with us.  This combined with the radar give me the feeling that this would the perfect storm for him to diagnose.  There'd be arguments for pages of him telling us the storm isn't coming and everyone else talking about delusions of the radar showing northerly movement.  I might be wrong, but this definitely feels and looks like it's going to be an under performer.

What is underperforming at this point?  Isn't the consensus for an advisory save a tiny slice of eastern mass? 

Just because we're all hoping it overperforms that, and we got a little taste of it on the models yesterday, just because this winter has been awful, doesn't mean our expectations shouldn't at least acknowledge that?

 

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Just now, tiger_deF said:

If this storm really does bust low majorly then this winter is a solid F- in my book. Never seen so many storms go wrong at the last minute

F - !?  Not the dreaded minus F. 

Pay attention folks. Very rarely is there a winter actually worse than a failure.  

Wtf does that mean, F-  haha

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