tiger_deF Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Just now, weathafella said: You could see it clear as day. Chases the convective blob thinking it’s getting a free ride to France.... Think it will verify? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 17 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Nice map dude. It’s how we would color it with a *** disclaimer - possible 12+ lollies if shit breaks right. I'd love for that to happen... but gun to head, I'm still not confident enough of that. WV looks good but lots of guidance has that current energy tugging east or remaining really scattered. Awesome nowcast event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 3k looks more reasonable 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 21 minutes ago, weathafella said: I like it! What program did you use? Some crap free PaintBrush program... started using it on the Wed event... figured I'm spending so much time analyzing and predicting and commenting, I might as well toss up a map. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Just now, tiger_deF said: Think it will verify? No. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 12k still crushes sema pretty good as the nw blob goes to town. Big improvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Just now, wxsniss said: Some crap free PaintBrush program... started using it on the Wed event... figured I'm spending so much time analyzing and predicting and commenting, I might as well toss up a map. Thanks! I’m always posting mobile which makes it tough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 I thInk 3k looks more realistic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 1 minute ago, weathafella said: 3k looks more reasonable Still jumping around with the low placement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 19 minutes ago, weathafella said: I thInk ORH exceeds those totals. ORH I put in 4-7"... I definitely could bust low (and get discontinuous snowfall gradients in subsidence areas) if a strong deformation band forms and drops anchor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Even 3k chases 2 convective blobs. WhIch end is up.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Was thinking 2 to 4 here. But could bust low if a good band develops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiger_deF Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 if the system doesn't chase convection and stacks correctly the NAM will bust big-time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted March 2, 2019 Author Share Posted March 2, 2019 About a -1.0mb/hour in the last hour over Cape Hatteras, NC. Lightning off the NC coastline, maybe push the surface low further northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Just now, tiger_deF said: if the system doesn't chase convection and stacks correctly the NAM will bust big-time Yeah it will Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted March 2, 2019 Author Share Posted March 2, 2019 Low-level bands developing out ahead of the main storm, down in NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Not sure if the NAM chasing convection is so much concective feedback as a feature of the disjointed vortmax. Not saying it’ll verify but I don’t think it’s toss level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Just now, ineedsnow said: Was thinking 2 to 4 here. But could bust low if a good band develops That's reasonable, I would think the better banding potential is over eastern ct where I could see a spot 7-8. Sometimes the banding pushes just a bit farther west than the models indicate but 2-4 is a reasonable call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 3k NAM looked better for PYM south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 I still think the 00z NAMs are suffering from convective feedback. You can see they are making the slow steady progression toward the global solutions. I see no reason to not believe the Euro/GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted March 2, 2019 Author Share Posted March 2, 2019 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: I still think the 00z NAMs are suffering from convective feedback. You can see they are making the slow steady progression toward the global solutions. I see no reason to not believe the Euro/GFS. I agree. They were a step in the right direction and so was the 2z HRRR model run, they are slowing down the progress of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Looks like the NAM is putting the focus on this piece of energy which seems to be solely associated with convection. I agree with Dom, it can’t be tossed, but if that is not correct the NAM busts big. We would see a heavy band push over CT, RI, and SE MA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeonPeon Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: I still think the 00z NAMs are suffering from convective feedback. You can see they are making the slow steady progression toward the global solutions. I see no reason to not believe the Euro/GFS. Isn't the Euro/GFS basically like 90% of the way to what the NAM has been saying for the last 72 hrs (with minor wobbles). If anyone has been making a slow steady progression, surely broadly speaking its the globals? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 55 minutes ago, wxsniss said: My thoughts... tough forecast, we're watching a vorticity mosh pit try to clarify in a dominant direction... next 6 hours of nowcast will tell all... and with H7 closing I went more bullish NW compared to most guidance... We're very similar. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted March 2, 2019 Author Share Posted March 2, 2019 4 minutes ago, NeonPeon said: Isn't the Euro/GFS basically like 90% of the way to what the NAM has been saying for the last 72 hrs (with minor wobbles). If anyone has been making a slow steady progression, surely broadly speaking its the globals? No the EURO and GFS have been quite steadfast, unless you are talking about heavy snow potential areas west of I95 corridor. I think Hartford, CT is in trouble and less confidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiger_deF Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Where can you find satellite loops for nowcasting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 3 minutes ago, NeonPeon said: Isn't the Euro/GFS basically like 90% of the way to what the NAM has been saying for the last 72 hrs (with minor wobbles). If anyone has been making a slow steady progression, surely broadly speaking its the globals? Meso models have been all over the place in the last couple days. The globals have been pretty close with a solid storm, save for the Uber solutions from a day ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 We're very similar. Yeah I liked your map. I’ve been hedging around a 4-8/6-12 Boston south all day so went with 5-10.It’s pretty much a Euro/GFS blend with some recognition of mid level features.I’ll be nervous for both of us... I think we know by 1-2am tnite where this is headed. If this tugs east, the western zones and maybe even northeast MA may bust too high. Hopefully this goes ballistic and I’ll gladly bust low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 there's been a signal for a storm around this time frame for a while now, I think Will said it a couple weeks ago and someone else pointed out the teles were all going to come together for a short window before pattern change, no? just details now, chances it bands further NW than modeling shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeonPeon Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 4 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: No the EURO and GFS have been quite steadfast, unless you are talking about heavy snow potential areas west of I95 corridor. I think Hartford, CT is in trouble and less confidence. I'm talking about the general depiction of a storm, i.e. something more consolidated earlier, and not something primarily developing as it heads out to sea, that is a significant event primarily for extreme eastern portions of SNE. Nam has been in the latter camp for about 48 hours, while the Euro/GFS decided to take us on a fun rollercoaster ride over that time that ends up in much the same place. Obviously it doesn't much matter now, and we'll see what happens, but I do not understand, at all, how one could see the GFS, in particular as "Steadfast" for this event. By the way, my untrained eyes looking at the water vapor today gave me a headache. I don't blame any of this computing for coughing up a weird bit or two, considering the complexity of the various little pieces of energy in place. If someone can see through the matrix on that, bravo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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