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Perhaps a Coastal Storm on March 2nd for SNE????


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Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

mm... k, buuut...

there's some large more super-synoptic scaled arguments I've had all along in mind, that sort of keep/kept me from being too bullish.  I could see it going either way - still within margins of error to go only 50 % of consensus totals, and due to the endemic uncertainty with an inherent "needle threader" system and exact course and banding, having weird strike back gashing from HFD- to BED I could see that too...

Barring the lesser likely, though, this "should be" a narrow impactor, hauling ass like bats leavin' hell.   Translation timing alone playing a limiting factor as well...  Compressed, high velocity patterns limit impacts to narrow regions...  doing so with middling over all mechanical strength has left me scratching heads to find where 6-8 " come from but again,.. margin for error is bit higher

This certainly can still go either way. At least for myself, I went bullish b/c I was quite impressed with the signal for banding traversing a good part of CT. I know there had been some differences and changes to QPF, but analyzing the mid-levels and profiles I felt that despite the QPF showings the look presented is good and I don't see why precipitation shouldn't blossom and with that lift into the DGZ we would maximize things well. 

I do agree about the speed...this thing is hauling pretty good and that is something that can really screw the higher end of calls. At least with this though I think this is an event where you're probably at least 1/2'' (and maybe closer to 1''/HR) rates for a good part of the storm. This isn't one where you're dealing with crap growth and light rates for a few hours and end like that...it's going to be a pretty solid ordeal of snow from start to finish.

There of course will be that deadly sharp-cutoff gradient somewhere which will yield a different type of hell.

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High bust potential with this either way.

This is a nowcast event if there ever was one. A big driver of the event is buckshot small pieces of vorticity, and everything depends on how these consolidate and track overnight.

IMO (and I've been staring at this on off since Jimmy's post this morning), nothing glaring in current water vapor to indicate which way yet, but the next few hours are critical.

There's no obvious intense convection far east (purple circle below), and most of the activity is over NC/VA which is good (2 black circles below). But it's really the next 8 hours that are critical.

In the big hits last night, activity in the left black circle dominated and the right black circle kind of diminished or circled north. In the more east hits, activity in the right black circle persists and tracks further east.

20190610007_GOES16-ABI-CONUS-09-2500x1500_analysis.jpg.2fc39fee3e625c6204941ae8875a475e.jpg

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5 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

High bust potential with this either way.

This is a nowcast event if there ever was one. A big driver of the event is buckshot small pieces of vorticity, and everything depends on how these consolidate and track overnight.

IMO (and I've been staring at this on off since Jimmy's post this morning), nothing glaring in current water vapor to indicate which way yet, but the next few hours are critical.

There's no obvious intense convection far east (purple circle below), and most of the activity is over NC/VA which is good (2 black circles below). But it's really the next 8 hours that are critical.

In the big hits last night, activity in the left black circle dominated and the right black circle kind of diminished or circled north. In the more east hits, activity in the right black circle persists and tracks further east.

20190610007_GOES16-ABI-CONUS-09-2500x1500_analysis.jpg.2fc39fee3e625c6204941ae8875a475e.jpg

Seems like synoptically all the ingredients which would favor developing convection remain closer to land. Best ulvl divergence is right where the convection currently is and looks like we should be seeing increasing ulvl divergence as well should help promote a northward blossoming of precip. 

I’m sure there may be other factors which enhance the development of convection of ocean, but ulvl seem to favor land 

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Final call for tonight's storm in CT. Forecast based on short term mesos/EC. GFS was tossed. I'm pretty bearish on this event after looking at the trends, bufkit, etc. I see no real reason to go higher anywhere right now.

I hope im wrong but this is my honest thinking right now. Once you have your final snowfall total just tag me and ill add it to the accumulation map. I'm very interested to see how this plays out. 

03_01.19_snow_forecast_1.thumb.jpg.92f7771e98a9e1f963b7b2da176cad8f.jpg

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Just now, The 4 Seasons said:

Final call for tonight's storm in CT. Forecast based on short term mesos/EC. GFS was tossed. I'm pretty bearish on this event after looking at the trends, bufkit, etc. I see no real reason to go higher anywhere right now.

I hope im wrong but this is my honest thinking right now. Once you have your final snowfall total just tag me and ill add it to the accumulation map. I'm very interested to see how this plays out. 

03_01.19_snow_forecast_1.thumb.jpg.92f7771e98a9e1f963b7b2da176cad8f.jpg

What would you say for Boston and SE mass 

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