Hoth Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 29 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: I'm siding with the 18z GFS given current trends in satellite imager, short range HRRR, 3km NAM models and their intensities. Winds could become a bigger issue according to the 3KM NAM. Blizzard conditions are a possibility along with thundersnows across the Cape. We enter the Warm conveyor belt and the ccb develops overhead along with potential comma head dynamics towards 6-12z tomorrow. Snow duration is expected to be around 18-20 hours, along with the potential for the H7-H92 lows to close off just southeast of CHH tomorrow midday. Along with the likelihood for intense cyclogenesis as thunderstorms erupt off the Delaware coastline. Also with the intensity of the lift and convection associated with the primary low over NE Tennessee currently and with the primary shortwave negative tilt along with intense frontogenesis likely and vertical velocties will lead to intense lift(omega) in the DGZ (Dendritic Growth Zone). Also the duration of the speed of the storm looks to slow down according to the HRRR guidance. Ocean enhancement along with potential coastal front development will likely lead to higher snowfall totals of near a foot and a half over Plymouth and Bristol counties in MA, with Provincetown, MA likely far enough north to miss out on mixing and where potential banding could be maximized. Why so conservative? Where's the 60"+? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Wow it's quiet in here. The RPM must have been horrifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 18 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Precarious setup. Wouldn’t take much to punt this east and we are left with advisory scraps Hopefully an overperformer for my birthday tomorrow. You are in a prime spot dude, come on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 We've gone from to in less than 24 hours. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiger_deF Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Just now, 78Blizzard said: We've gone from to in less than 24 hours. More like to to 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Just change your SN to TauntonMeeehzird1929. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Just change your SN to TauntonMeeehzird1929. 1929 for the depression lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiger_deF Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Maybe a good EURO run will help everyone out of their misery Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 10 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: You are in a prime spot dude, come on. He still could walk away with not much very easily. I'm putting out a map soon for this one, it's not gonna be pretty. Working on Sunday night first call map as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 1 hour ago, DFRI said: The "10% chance of higher" is lower than the "expected" (for RI) Thats because one is for both storms and the other is only for this storm. They probably did not update the 10%/90% maps yet or made a mistake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Hrrr shifted too. Looks great for NYC and LI. Good for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 19 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Wow it's quiet in here. The RPM must have been horrifying. It's not to be weighted or trusted by any means but its also not a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitzbuhel Craver Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Am I missing something? This was alwayfor the southern/eastern sufferers. Still looks good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Just now, Kitzbuhel Craver said: Am I missing something? This was alwayfor the southern/eastern sufferers. Still looks good Cut back a lot across the board. They still do good but I think all the 10 pluses are not likely. All 18z guidance cut back. Maybe comes back last second or ratios are better. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 4 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: It's not to be weighted or trusted by any means but its also not a good sign. Jesus. Well, it would fit this winter perfectly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 4 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: It's not to be weighted or trusted by any means but its also not a good sign. It aligns with all the 18z cut backs. Will be colder so maybe better ratios. I would still go 2 to 4 for coastal areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 I'm still very bullish for Sunday, 6-12 is a good bet right now for interior S CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 13 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: He still could walk away with not much very easily. I'm putting out a map soon for this one, it's not gonna be pretty. Working on Sunday night first call map as well. No way he can walks away unscathed. euro mid levels were great in SEMA. Let’s not overreact to shit models shitting themselves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitzbuhel Craver Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Hopefully this isn’t a full out messenger special here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Nothing has changed since 6 hours ago. Not sure what I'm reading in here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Just now, sbos_wx said: Nothing has changed since 6 hours ago. Not sure what I'm reading in here I know. I feel like I’m reading the DC forum from a couple winters ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Just now, sbos_wx said: Nothing has changed since 6 hours ago. Not sure what I'm reading in here We can preach all we want, some just don’t believe in Him unless they see Him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 The only way to tell if the mesos are handling this "shift" "cut-back" whatever you want to call it is to see how the convection is behaving and compare that to the mesos. I don't really think they'll handling the convection well. Looking at mesoanalysis and models it's tough to see convection fire off (at least a great deal of it) well east off the coast. This could be a case where mesos screw themselves. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Pro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 GEFS are bullish.. pretty much nowcast time though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 18 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: The only way to tell if the mesos are handling this "shift" "cut-back" whatever you want to call it is to see how the convection is behaving and compare that to the mesos. I don't really think they'll handling the convection well. Looking at mesoanalysis and models it's tough to see convection fire off (at least a great deal of it) well east off the coast. This could be a case where mesos screw themselves. mm... k, buuut... there's some large more super-synoptic scaled arguments I've had all along in mind, that sort of keep/kept me from being too bullish. I could see it going either way - still within margins of error to go only 50 % of consensus totals, and due to the endemic uncertainty with an inherent "needle threader" system and exact course and banding, having weird strike back gashing from HFD- to BED I could see that too... Barring the lesser likely, though, this "should be" a narrow impactor, hauling ass like bats leavin' hell. Translation timing alone playing a limiting factor as well... Compressed, high velocity patterns limit impacts to narrow regions... doing so with middling over all mechanical strength has left me scratching heads to find where 6-8 " come from but again,.. margin for error is bit higher. The MESOs could erroneous for convective handling... yup, but ... maybe they should've been to high in the first place. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Got a text from a met. Euro still bullish. Better at H7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 12 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: GEFS are bullish.. pretty much nowcast time though Not expecting more than 3-4" here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: It's quiet. Weenies lighting candles at the altar of the Euro? The Deacon laughs at all the sinners. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 18z Euro about same as 12z, ramped up for coastal areas / Cape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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