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Perhaps a Coastal Storm on March 2nd for SNE????


USCAPEWEATHERAF
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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

I've had the water vapor loop up in the backround the entire day....I keep waiting for something to show a more obvious turn east and I can't find it. I've been keeping an eye to the east for convection....so far IMHO, the mesos have overdone convection east of NC but underdone it back inland. It's a good sign but doesn't mean much yet...the key will be like 6-8 hours from now. That's when I feel like the skill of water vapor loop v guidance is easier to parse. You need like under 10 hour lead time.....the whole thing reminds me of when we sniffed out the model failure of 1/27/11....the models were trying to shove it east too quickly and it rode up the coast and smoked us.

Of course, 6-8 hours form now, we'll have a bunch more short term model guidance and actual OP model runs too....so the whole exercise is probably pointless. But it's still interesting to me personally. If I looked at that loop without looking at any model data, I'd be thinking how on earth that could miss or only scrape us.

Thanks man that’s Messenger like

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I'm siding with the 18z GFS given current trends in satellite imager, short range HRRR, 3km NAM models and their intensities.  Winds could become a bigger issue according to the 3KM NAM.  Blizzard conditions are a possibility along with thundersnows across the Cape.  We enter the Warm conveyor belt and the ccb develops overhead along with potential comma head dynamics towards 6-12z tomorrow.  Snow duration is expected to be around 18-20 hours, along with the potential for the H7-H92 lows to close off just southeast of CHH tomorrow midday.  Along with the likelihood for intense cyclogenesis as thunderstorms erupt off the Delaware coastline.  Also with the intensity of the lift and convection associated with the primary low over NE Tennessee currently and with the primary shortwave negative tilt along with intense frontogenesis likely and vertical velocties will lead to intense lift(omega) in the DGZ (Dendritic Growth Zone).  Also the duration of the speed of the storm looks to slow down according to the HRRR guidance.  Ocean enhancement along with potential coastal front development will likely lead to higher snowfall totals of near a foot and a half over Plymouth and Bristol counties in MA, with Provincetown, MA likely far enough north to miss out on mixing and where potential banding could be maximized.

March 2nd 2019 Nor'easter Snow Map final issuabce.gif

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Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

I'm siding with the 18z GFS given current trends in satellite imager, short range HRRR, 3km NAM models and their intensities.  Winds could become a bigger issue according to the 3KM NAM.  Blizzard conditions are a possibility along with thundersnows across the Cape.  We enter the Warm conveyor belt and the ccb develops overhead along with potential comma head dynamics towards 6-12z tomorrow.  Snow duration is expected to be around 18-20 hours, along with the potential for the H7-H92 lows to close off just southeast of CHH tomorrow midday.  Along with the likelihood for intense cyclogenesis as thunderstorms erupt off the Delaware coastline.  Also with the intensity of the lift and convection associated with the primary low over NE Tennessee currently and with the primary shortwave negative tilt along with intense frontogenesis likely and vertical velocties will lead to intense lift(omega) in the DGZ (Dendritic Growth Zone).  Also the duration of the speed of the storm looks to slow down according to the HRRR guidance.  Ocean enhancement along with potential coastal front development will likely lead to higher snowfall totals of near a foot and a half over Plymouth and Bristol counties in MA, with Provincetown, MA likely far enough north to miss out on mixing and where potential banding could be maximized.

March 2nd 2019 Nor'easter Snow Map final issuabce.gif

Filter turned off again ...?   :)

j/k.... good luck with your forecast

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1 minute ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

I'm siding with the 18z GFS given current trends in satellite imager, short range HRRR, 3km NAM models and their intensities.  Winds could become a bigger issue according to the 3KM NAM.  Blizzard conditions are a possibility along with thundersnows across the Cape.  We enter the Warm conveyor belt and the ccb develops overhead along with potential comma head dynamics towards 6-12z tomorrow.  Snow duration is expected to be around 18-20 hours, along with the potential for the H7-H92 lows to close off just southeast of CHH tomorrow midday.  Along with the likelihood for intense cyclogenesis as thunderstorms erupt off the Delaware coastline.  Also with the intensity of the lift and convection associated with the primary low over NE Tennessee currently and with the primary shortwave negative tilt along with intense frontogenesis likely and vertical velocties will lead to intense lift(omega) in the DGZ (Dendritic Growth Zone).  Also the duration of the speed of the storm looks to slow down according to the HRRR guidance.  Ocean enhancement along with potential coastal front development will likely lead to higher snowfall totals of near a foot and a half over Plymouth and Bristol counties in MA, with Provincetown, MA likely far enough north to miss out on mixing and where potential banding could be maximized.

March 2nd 2019 Nor'easter Snow Map final issuabce.gif

If that verifies, I'm for replacing the GFS with the James model.

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17 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

I'm siding with the 18z GFS given current trends in satellite imager, short range HRRR, 3km NAM models and their intensities.  Winds could become a bigger issue according to the 3KM NAM.  Blizzard conditions are a possibility along with thundersnows across the Cape.  We enter the Warm conveyor belt and the ccb develops overhead along with potential comma head dynamics towards 6-12z tomorrow.  Snow duration is expected to be around 18-20 hours, along with the potential for the H7-H92 lows to close off just southeast of CHH tomorrow midday.  Along with the likelihood for intense cyclogenesis as thunderstorms erupt off the Delaware coastline.  Also with the intensity of the lift and convection associated with the primary low over NE Tennessee currently and with the primary shortwave negative tilt along with intense frontogenesis likely and vertical velocties will lead to intense lift(omega) in the DGZ (Dendritic Growth Zone).  Also the duration of the speed of the storm looks to slow down according to the HRRR guidance.  Ocean enhancement along with potential coastal front development will likely lead to higher snowfall totals of near a foot and a half over Plymouth and Bristol counties in MA, with Provincetown, MA likely far enough north to miss out on mixing and where potential banding could be maximized.

March 2nd 2019 Nor'easter Snow Map final issuabce.gif

oh honey...

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