BombsAway1288 Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Would be nice to get the same last second NW tick that has hurt us all winter. Of course when we need it the most, it's nowhere to be found, for now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 anyone know when 18z ECMWF comes out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 1 minute ago, The 4 Seasons said: anyone know when 18z ECMWF comes out? 630 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderblizzard Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 2 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: anyone know when 18z ECMWF comes out? Initializes at 6:45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: I've had the water vapor loop up in the backround the entire day....I keep waiting for something to show a more obvious turn east and I can't find it. I've been keeping an eye to the east for convection....so far IMHO, the mesos have overdone convection east of NC but underdone it back inland. It's a good sign but doesn't mean much yet...the key will be like 6-8 hours from now. That's when I feel like the skill of water vapor loop v guidance is easier to parse. You need like under 10 hour lead time.....the whole thing reminds me of when we sniffed out the model failure of 1/27/11....the models were trying to shove it east too quickly and it rode up the coast and smoked us. Of course, 6-8 hours form now, we'll have a bunch more short term model guidance and actual OP model runs too....so the whole exercise is probably pointless. But it's still interesting to me personally. If I looked at that loop without looking at any model data, I'd be thinking how on earth that could miss or only scrape us. Thanks man that’s Messenger like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DFRI Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 What the heck is up with the BOX maps?? "Expected snowfall" vs "10% chance of higher snowfall". Doesn't make sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeonPeon Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 So the gfs has almost entirely caved to the nam at this point. Good on box for entirely ignoring it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 2 minutes ago, NeonPeon said: So the gfs has almost entirely caved to the nam at this point. Good on box for entirely ignoring it. Pull up Rays map. That’s what you can expect. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 7 minutes ago, DFRI said: What the heck is up with the BOX maps?? "Expected snowfall" vs "10% chance of higher snowfall". Doesn't make sense. where have you been, its been like that for years and years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Just now, The 4 Seasons said: where have you been, its been like that for years and years. Nope. The expected snowfall map goes through Monday. Strange Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DFRI Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 2 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: where have you been, its been like that for years and years. The "10% chance of higher" is lower than the "expected" (for RI) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 6 minutes ago, NeonPeon said: So the gfs has almost entirely caved to the nam at this point. Good on box for entirely ignoring it. Talk about a cave: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 gfs choking on itself over correcting both ways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
apm Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 3 minutes ago, DFRI said: The "10% chance of higher" is lower than the "expected" (for RI) Different time periods... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted March 1, 2019 Author Share Posted March 1, 2019 I'm siding with the 18z GFS given current trends in satellite imager, short range HRRR, 3km NAM models and their intensities. Winds could become a bigger issue according to the 3KM NAM. Blizzard conditions are a possibility along with thundersnows across the Cape. We enter the Warm conveyor belt and the ccb develops overhead along with potential comma head dynamics towards 6-12z tomorrow. Snow duration is expected to be around 18-20 hours, along with the potential for the H7-H92 lows to close off just southeast of CHH tomorrow midday. Along with the likelihood for intense cyclogenesis as thunderstorms erupt off the Delaware coastline. Also with the intensity of the lift and convection associated with the primary low over NE Tennessee currently and with the primary shortwave negative tilt along with intense frontogenesis likely and vertical velocties will lead to intense lift(omega) in the DGZ (Dendritic Growth Zone). Also the duration of the speed of the storm looks to slow down according to the HRRR guidance. Ocean enhancement along with potential coastal front development will likely lead to higher snowfall totals of near a foot and a half over Plymouth and Bristol counties in MA, with Provincetown, MA likely far enough north to miss out on mixing and where potential banding could be maximized. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: I'm siding with the 18z GFS given current trends in satellite imager, short range HRRR, 3km NAM models and their intensities. Winds could become a bigger issue according to the 3KM NAM. Blizzard conditions are a possibility along with thundersnows across the Cape. We enter the Warm conveyor belt and the ccb develops overhead along with potential comma head dynamics towards 6-12z tomorrow. Snow duration is expected to be around 18-20 hours, along with the potential for the H7-H92 lows to close off just southeast of CHH tomorrow midday. Along with the likelihood for intense cyclogenesis as thunderstorms erupt off the Delaware coastline. Also with the intensity of the lift and convection associated with the primary low over NE Tennessee currently and with the primary shortwave negative tilt along with intense frontogenesis likely and vertical velocties will lead to intense lift(omega) in the DGZ (Dendritic Growth Zone). Also the duration of the speed of the storm looks to slow down according to the HRRR guidance. Ocean enhancement along with potential coastal front development will likely lead to higher snowfall totals of near a foot and a half over Plymouth and Bristol counties in MA, with Provincetown, MA likely far enough north to miss out on mixing and where potential banding could be maximized. Filter turned off again ...? j/k.... good luck with your forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted March 1, 2019 Author Share Posted March 1, 2019 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: Filter turned off again ...? j/k.... good luck with your forecast Thanks TIP, I explained why I went bullish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 I posted this morning that the Satellite appearance looked great, still does. Euro gonna be my ride home. Giddy up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Rpm is gonna be ugly at 21z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 GFS still looks good in bringing heavy banding back to central CT. Going to rip for a good 4-5 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 1 minute ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: I'm siding with the 18z GFS given current trends in satellite imager, short range HRRR, 3km NAM models and their intensities. Winds could become a bigger issue according to the 3KM NAM. Blizzard conditions are a possibility along with thundersnows across the Cape. We enter the Warm conveyor belt and the ccb develops overhead along with potential comma head dynamics towards 6-12z tomorrow. Snow duration is expected to be around 18-20 hours, along with the potential for the H7-H92 lows to close off just southeast of CHH tomorrow midday. Along with the likelihood for intense cyclogenesis as thunderstorms erupt off the Delaware coastline. Also with the intensity of the lift and convection associated with the primary low over NE Tennessee currently and with the primary shortwave negative tilt along with intense frontogenesis likely and vertical velocties will lead to intense lift(omega) in the DGZ (Dendritic Growth Zone). Also the duration of the speed of the storm looks to slow down according to the HRRR guidance. Ocean enhancement along with potential coastal front development will likely lead to higher snowfall totals of near a foot and a half over Plymouth and Bristol counties in MA, with Provincetown, MA likely far enough north to miss out on mixing and where potential banding could be maximized. If that verifies, I'm for replacing the GFS with the James model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 RPM shit the bed with this storm completely. Barely a couple inches at most for S CT, complete shut out for N and NW CT. Meanwhile RPM seems halfway decent the past couple runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: Rpm is gonna be ugly at 21z Post it damn it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Does the ginx-james-jay combo seem unbeatable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 17 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: I'm siding with the 18z GFS given current trends in satellite imager, short range HRRR, 3km NAM models and their intensities. Winds could become a bigger issue according to the 3KM NAM. Blizzard conditions are a possibility along with thundersnows across the Cape. We enter the Warm conveyor belt and the ccb develops overhead along with potential comma head dynamics towards 6-12z tomorrow. Snow duration is expected to be around 18-20 hours, along with the potential for the H7-H92 lows to close off just southeast of CHH tomorrow midday. Along with the likelihood for intense cyclogenesis as thunderstorms erupt off the Delaware coastline. Also with the intensity of the lift and convection associated with the primary low over NE Tennessee currently and with the primary shortwave negative tilt along with intense frontogenesis likely and vertical velocties will lead to intense lift(omega) in the DGZ (Dendritic Growth Zone). Also the duration of the speed of the storm looks to slow down according to the HRRR guidance. Ocean enhancement along with potential coastal front development will likely lead to higher snowfall totals of near a foot and a half over Plymouth and Bristol counties in MA, with Provincetown, MA likely far enough north to miss out on mixing and where potential banding could be maximized. oh honey... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 I dunno. I feel like tossing it. Makes no sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Precarious setup. Wouldn’t take much to punt this east and we are left with advisory scraps Hopefully an overperformer for my birthday tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiger_deF Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Has there been a positive trend right before a storm hits this entire year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Only Nov 15th really, if that counts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 3 minutes ago, tiger_deF said: Has there been a positive trend right before a storm hits this entire year? For Stowe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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