RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Careful I've done that before, too ... go to bed feelin' really good about Sat and Rad trends, regardless of whatever disappointment was being evaded on my way to slumber... only to wake up wonder how in the hell said Sat and Rad didn't parlay better... Sometimes those loops sorta kinda like lie? you know - My eyes never lie to me, never. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Yeah I was talking about it a few posts above...how it looks really good, but it doesn't necessarily mean anything yet. Though I find it interesting the lack of convection to the east of the Delmarva/VA which is where I'll keep looking. Speak of the devil... James just saved the day! ahah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted March 1, 2019 Author Share Posted March 1, 2019 The primary is blowing up convection right now, where the best mid to upper level dynamics are present. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: The primary is blowing up convection right now, where the best mid to upper level dynamics are present. No offense, I love the coverage, but you're going to have me driven up a wall if we track thunderstorms off the delmarva 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 This will be a model failure inside 24hrs for most guidance. Go with euro mid levels but take the qpf further nw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: This will be a model failure inside 24hrs for most guidance. Go with euro mid levels but take the qpf further nw. Exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Yeah I dunno. I was saying this would improve when everyone was jumping off the Tobin a couple days ago, but I am having a hard time jumping on the 8+ train anywhere but along the MA coast for something moving this quick. I have no qualms with Ryan's or BOX's maps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 13 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: That’s too tame for you, what happenned? Did you get an angry ending at the Blue? Well your buddy said it slipped away , so I think I’m pretty aggressive lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 30 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I've had the water vapor loop up in the backround the entire day....I keep waiting for something to show a more obvious turn east and I can't find it. I've been keeping an eye to the east for convection....so far IMHO, the mesos have overdone convection east of NC but underdone it back inland. It's a good sign but doesn't mean much yet...the key will be like 6-8 hours from now. That's when I feel like the skill of water vapor loop v guidance is easier to parse. You need like under 10 hour lead time.....the whole thing reminds me of when we sniffed out the model failure of 1/27/11....the models were trying to shove it east too quickly and it rode up the coast and smoked us. Of course, 6-8 hours form now, we'll have a bunch more short term model guidance and actual OP model runs too....so the whole exercise is probably pointless. But it's still interesting to me personally. If I looked at that loop without looking at any model data, I'd be thinking how on earth that could miss or only scrape us. You sound like you are channeling Messenger-nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted March 1, 2019 Author Share Posted March 1, 2019 The good news so far with the nowcast, is that water vapor imagery continues to show us what we need to see with the stronger lift and thunderstorm development is associated with the mid-level shortwave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Anyone notice the 2nd batch of snow that rotates thru Sat evening .? Drops another inch or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah I was talking about it a few posts above...how it looks really good, but it doesn't necessarily mean anything yet. Though I find it interesting the lack of convection to the east of the Delmarva/VA which is where I'll keep looking. I mean I don't see a satellite based reason to toss the GFS yet. If I'm going to nitpick, it's probably a hair slow with the Dakotas kicker (which obviously could have large downstream impacts). That leading area of vorticity in the Carolinas that models have is interesting. Looping the regional radar and there is clearly a spin to the precip, so it's not some phony convectively created feature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Well the convection offshore is supposed to blow up tonight. So we'll see if it comes to fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Anyone notice the 2nd batch of snow that rotates thru Sat evening .? Drops another inch or so The one you just saw me tweet about? lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Just now, CT Rain said: The one you just saw me tweet about? lol ??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 1 minute ago, CT Rain said: The one you just saw me tweet about? lol What you thinking for totals? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 1 minute ago, CT Rain said: The one you just saw me tweet about? lol I was just going to say that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GansettBay Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 WWA taken down for most of ri. What’s up with that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 5 minutes ago, dendrite said: Well the convection offshore is supposed to blow up tonight. So we'll see if it comes to fruition. The leading s/w off of hatteras is very real and firing off convection already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 I was Actually talking about that this morning. That could drop an inch or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Just now, GansettBay said: WWA taken down for most of ri. What’s up with that? WSW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeonPeon Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 1 minute ago, GansettBay said: WWA taken down for most of ri. What’s up with that? Where do you see that? I see advisories still statewide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: I was Actually talking about that this morning. That could drop an inch or two. Did the euro have it? Nammy hasn't been biting. I know the GGEM had it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Anyone notice the 2nd batch of snow that rotates thru Sat evening .? Drops another inch or so A white saturday with a break for lunch then more action in the pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Just now, dendrite said: Did the euro have it? Nammy hasn't been biting. I know the GGEM had it. Yes...it wasn't as strong on the euro but it had it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted March 1, 2019 Author Share Posted March 1, 2019 4 minutes ago, JC-CT said: The leading s/w off of hatteras is very real and firing off convection already. I would say it is gulf stream enhanced convection. Probably due to strong wind shear as surface winds out of the southeast and upper level winds out of the southwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Woah Woaj Woah... I’m reading through the NWS point and click and am getting Firious with my 2-4 forecast..... .....then I read down.... “1-2 Sunday, 4-8 Sunday Night” WHAT!?!? That storm is FAR bigger now? Thought that one was blah and rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: A white saturday with a break for lunch then more action in the pm. Typical day for Krafty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Just now, TheSnowman said: Woah Woaj Woah... I’m reading through the NWS point and click and am getting Firious with my 2-4 forecast..... .....then I read down.... “1-2 Sunday, 4-8 Sunday Night” WHAT!?!? That storm is FAR bigger now? Thought that one was blah and rain? You in LA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Just now, weathafella said: You in LA? Home until Wednesday . Then basically gone for 6 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now