Perhaps a Coastal Storm on March 2nd for SNE????

[Baroclinic Zone]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Vorticity is more consolidated on the NAM thus far....that's a good thing. But so far, it's not quite enough to really consolidate the midlevels so this solution may still be dogshit.

Closes off 7h after 12z Saturday. 

[Kitzbuhel Craver]

Where’s the correlation? Wiz is a red tag and James is king weenie?

[DFRI]

11 minutes ago, Kitzbuhel Craver said:

What are we thinking for duration with this? Like a midnight to noon deal?

Being that this thread is for the March 2nd storm, that's about right for your area.  Not "days".

 

[wxsniss]

QPF may not have improved much, but vorticity is more consolidated, better kink at H5, and closes off at H7

Take home: the trend towards an eastern fade on some 6z-12z guidance has stopped

[NeonPeon]

The NAM looks better to my eye, if you ignore the QPF, which went from bizarrely smoothed out at 12 z, to just odd, at 18z.

[The 4 Seasons]

what are the stations around here going, i dont know if Ryan updated his map but the one from yesterday 1-3/3-6 looks pretty reasonable right now. Im just starting to look at models, but it seems its been pulled back quite a bit. 

[DomNH]

I think we're kind of splitting hairs at this point. It's going to be a modest event outside of southeastern SNE. 

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

QPF may not have improved much, but vorticity is more consolidated, better kink at H5, and closes off at H7

Take home: the trend towards an eastern fade on some 6z-12z guidance has stopped

I've had the water vapor loop up in the backround the entire day....I keep waiting for something to show a more obvious turn east and I can't find it. I've been keeping an eye to the east for convection....so far IMHO, the mesos have overdone convection east of NC but underdone it back inland. It's a good sign but doesn't mean much yet...the key will be like 6-8 hours from now. That's when I feel like the skill of water vapor loop v guidance is easier to parse. You need like under 10 hour lead time.....the whole thing reminds me of when we sniffed out the model failure of 1/27/11....the models were trying to shove it east too quickly and it rode up the coast and smoked us.

Of course, 6-8 hours form now, we'll have a bunch more short term model guidance and actual OP model runs too....so the whole exercise is probably pointless. But it's still interesting to me personally. If I looked at that loop without looking at any model data, I'd be thinking how on earth that could miss or only scrape us.

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

I've had the water vapor loop up in the backround the entire day....I keep waiting for something to show a more obvious turn east and I can't find it. I've been keeping an eye to the east for convection....so far IMHO, the mesos have overdone convection east of NC but underdone it back inland. It's a good sign but doesn't mean much yet...the key will be like 6-8 hours from now. That's when I feel like the skill of water vapor loop v guidance is easier to parse. You need like under 10 hour lead time.....the whole thing reminds me of when we sniffed out the model failure of 1/27/11....the models were trying to shove it east too quickly and it rode up the coast and smoked us.

Of course, 6-8 hours form now, we'll have a bunch more short term model guidance and actual OP model runs too....so the whole exercise is probably pointless. But it's still interesting to me personally. If I looked at that loop without looking at any model data, I'd be thinking how on earth that could miss or only scrape us.

If convection were to be overdone anywhere I would think it's certainly better it happened over land as opposed as to over the ocean

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

I've had the water vapor loop up in the backround the entire day....I keep waiting for something to show a more obvious turn east and I can't find it. I've been keeping an eye to the east for convection....so far IMHO, the mesos have overdone convection east of NC but underdone it back inland. It's a good sign but doesn't mean much yet...the key will be like 6-8 hours from now. That's when I feel like the skill of water vapor loop v guidance is easier to parse. You need like under 10 hour lead time.....the whole thing reminds me of when we sniffed out the model failure of 1/27/11....the models were trying to shove it east too quickly and it rode up the coast and smoked us.

Of course, 6-8 hours form now, we'll have a bunch more short term model guidance and actual OP model runs too....so the whole exercise is probably pointless. But it's still interesting to me personally. If I looked at that loop without looking at any model data, I'd be thinking how on earth that could miss or only scrape us.

Dude I just looked at it and felt the same. It’s weird.

[Thunderblizzard]

3 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

what are the stations around here going, i dont know if Ryan updated his map but the one from yesterday 1-3/3-6 looks pretty reasonable right now. Im just starting to look at models, but it seems its been pulled back quite a bit. 

Still 1-3 NW of Hartford and 3-6 everywhere else last I checked. WTNH are going similar but WFSB are more bullish with 4-8 Hartford southeast and 2-5 northwest.

[ORH_wxman]

In the end, the 18z NAM did increase QPF for most of SE MA/S RI...esp PYM/Canal area and maybe back to EWB/UUU...prob owing to the better midlevels. It didn't change much over the interior.

[Typhoon Tip]

'Been just sort of observing ... ( lost interest due to my perennial checking out that typically happens in March ...don't take it personally. )

It seems there is/has been a tendency to collectively lean toward higher amounts reviewing many pages in this thread. Then the subtle surprise when x-y-z run cuts back and, then a-b-c model suggests more and we forget the x-y-z...

I just wanna add, I don't typically see big amounts from fast moving open waves... particularly when the wave its self has almost vague mechanical signature in the flow. I think some of this nearer term run-up attenuation of the development profile (talking Satur...), may be realism and correction pushing back against the above 'leaning'. 

On the other hand, just about any permutation in the Earth's atmosphere since about 50 years ago ...is going to have more moisture at its disposal ... so, comparatively weaker kinematics can ...I dunno, add a couple tenths or so...  That's just fact - water output from island showers near Fiji, to enormous tempests in the GOA, to categorical hurricanes in the Atlantic... to thunderstorms in WeatherWiz's backyard...  everywhere, the atmosphere is empirically holding more moisture and rate results are up.  Not sure how much that facet should deterministically add to this thing, but, it's just to say that the same synoptic evolution in 1919 doesn't produce (probably) as prolifically as it does in 2019..  

Worth a consideration... if only for a little more.  

The other aspect I'm toying around with is the "little critter" phenomenon - which is a euphemism (don't panic  ) for when a seemingly innocuous perturbation in the flow goes flippin' nuts, which happens regardless of 1919 or 2019, too...  I don't know this qualifies, ...I don't think it will ... but, most of those positive bust types take reanalysis to figure out why.  You know, I saw Bozart's presentation back in 1997 when he first coind the expression to describe those head scratch six hour long S+er's out of nowhere...  as I also recall the system he was using for his presentation. It was fascinating...  10" on a west wind along the pike and SE Mass is the ultimately left-fielder... Pretty sure it was Feb the previous year.  Anyway, different story different time no analog.  

[Baroclinic Zone]

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I've had the water vapor loop up in the backround the entire day....I keep waiting for something to show a more obvious turn east and I can't find it. I've been keeping an eye to the east for convection....so far IMHO, the mesos have overdone convection east of NC but underdone it back inland. It's a good sign but doesn't mean much yet...the key will be like 6-8 hours from now. That's when I feel like the skill of water vapor loop v guidance is easier to parse. You need like under 10 hour lead time.....the whole thing reminds me of when we sniffed out the model failure of 1/27/11....the models were trying to shove it east too quickly and it rode up the coast and smoked us.

Of course, 6-8 hours form now, we'll have a bunch more short term model guidance and actual OP model runs too....so the whole exercise is probably pointless. But it's still interesting to me personally. If I looked at that loop without looking at any model data, I'd be thinking how on earth that could miss or only scrape us.

I have a feeling the Mesos are having a difficult time with qpf output due to the convection out east.  They're still placing too much focus in that area and sort of ignoring where the best dynamics/lift are.

[Damage In Tolland]

I think I am going 2-5 West of river and 4-8 east . With a lot of 6” amounts and the lolli s getting 8 most likely Ginx to NW RI. 

[The 4 Seasons]

Advisories now out for the whole state, most list as 2-4 or 2-5 in the BOX area of CT, 3-5 for OKX area.

[CT Rain]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I think I am going 2-5 West of river and 4-8 east . With a lot of 6” amounts and the lolli s getting 8 most likely Ginx to NW RI. 

What model are you favoring?

[TalcottWx]

12 minutes ago, DomNH said:

I think we're kind of splitting hairs at this point. It's going to be a modest event outside of southeastern SNE. 

I disagree with the mid level look. It will probably be ORH on East. Maybe 495 on East.

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, CT Rain said:

What model are you favoring?

Concensus gives us that 

You have 1-3 over far too much of the state 

[TalcottWx]

I'm riding 6-12" inside the 95 Belt. Isolated totals over 12" too.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I think I am going 2-5 West of river and 4-8 east . With a lot of 6” amounts and the lolli s getting 8 most likely Ginx to NW RI. 

That’s too tame for you, what happenned? Did you get an angry ending at the Blue?

[ORH_wxman]

FWIW, here's the WV loop.....

 

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

I think confidence is increasing in Plymouth and Bristol counties in MA receiving a foot plus.

[TalcottWx]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

FWIW, here's the WV loop.....

 

It's coming. Consider me alongside James and Paul.

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

Looking at water vapor imagery I would say we are going to have a large storm system impacting us tomorrow.  Right now the primary low inland is still hanging strong.  1014mb low.  A large outbreak of high cloud tops seems like a line of storms is developing along the cold front as mid level vort max is rotating.  That is a sign of a strengthening mid level low.

[Typhoon Tip]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

FWIW, here's the WV loop.....

 

Careful  

I've done that before, too ... go to bed feelin' really good about Sat and Rad trends, regardless of whatever disappointment was being evaded on my way to slumber... only to wake up wonder how in the hell said Sat and Rad didn't parlay better...  

Sometimes those loops sorta kinda like lie?  you know -

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

WE have lightning initiation and development of thunderstorms off of Cape Hatteras, NC.

[wxsniss]

11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I've had the water vapor loop up in the backround the entire day....I keep waiting for something to show a more obvious turn east and I can't find it. I've been keeping an eye to the east for convection....so far IMHO, the mesos have overdone convection east of NC but underdone it back inland. It's a good sign but doesn't mean much yet...the key will be like 6-8 hours from now. That's when I feel like the skill of water vapor loop v guidance is easier to parse. You need like under 10 hour lead time.....the whole thing reminds me of when we sniffed out the model failure of 1/27/11....the models were trying to shove it east too quickly and it rode up the coast and smoked us.

Of course, 6-8 hours form now, we'll have a bunch more short term model guidance and actual OP model runs too....so the whole exercise is probably pointless. But it's still interesting to me personally. If I looked at that loop without looking at any model data, I'd be thinking how on earth that could miss or only scrape us.

Funny I've intermittently been doing the same... and trying to decipher upstream signs that this is gonna go one way or another.

James gets bashed alot (often appropriately), but I'll give him credit for reminding me to look earlier this morning.

I totally agree... mesos have been emphasizing the stuff emerging from NC, but the stuff over Tennessee valley looks much more robust.

Critical water vapor window I think might be ~ 5z-6z Saturday to get a better idea of where this is going. If the best activity is just off of Delaware, we are in business. If it's way off the coast, we get tugged more east.

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

That’s too tame for you, what happenned? Did you get an angry ending at the Blue?

He listened to me when I told him there'd be no warning for most in CT....and just advisories for most except maybe the Far east side.  

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

Careful  

I've done that before, too ... go to bed feelin' really good about Sat and Rad trends, regardless of whatever disappointment was being evaded on my way to slumber... only to wake up wonder how in the hell said Sat and Rad didn't parlay better...  

Sometimes those loops sorta kinda like lie?  you know -

Yeah I was talking about it a few posts above...how it looks really good, but it doesn't necessarily mean anything yet. Though I find it interesting the lack of convection to the east of the Delmarva/VA which is where I'll keep looking.