NeonPeon Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Just now, GansettBay said: What do y’all think about Newport, RI tomorrow? Crushed or nah? So there are a lots of models that will tell you very good news. Model hugging and a consensus says we get 6-9 inches, but there are a bunch of things that could prevent that from happening. A less wound up storm could give us some hours of poor snow and even rain, with the best banding just north of here, and then when the storm gets organized, the comma head remains to our east, and we are dry/scraps. I can totally see that scenario occurring, and us getting a scrappy 4 inches with some slop in the middle of it. We would have done better with something more organized (who wouldn't). The NAM is the worst reading of any model for newport (2-3 inches?). It can't be totally discounted. My prediction - pain, but that holds no claim on being scientific. BOX have been totally right in slow playing this, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 BOX playing conservative. Thinking 6-10 here and 8-14” somewhere in SEMA for the jack. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Still looks like BOX is taking the slow uptick in totals. Think we see another bump up later. WSW and 4-7" totals? 6-10". Agreed.or 7-11" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 EPS copy of op thru 36 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 6 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Still looks like BOX is taking the slow uptick in totals. Think we see another bump up later. WSW and 4-7" totals? 6-10". This is essentially a now cast. Would be nice to see something other than gfs with mid level consistently run to run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 4 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: BOX playing conservative. Thinking 6-10 here and 8-14” somewhere in SEMA for the jack. Yeah they're playing it conservative but it's paid off so far. I could see them still upping this later especially if things swing better for the 18z suit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 27 minutes ago, JC-CT said: YOU are legit. Your red tag says so My winter forecasting still isn't all that great 15 minutes ago, Kitzbuhel Craver said: Wiz goin bullish has got me giddy considering he is one of the more conservative forecasters. Love how he is backing it up with some meteorological reasoning, not weenie modelology. Kudos I always try to explain all my thoughts and reasoning behind my forecast (which I'll usually do in a war-and-piece long blog post). This helps to me to; 1) Understand the entire situation 2) Make sure I have covered all grounds (or as many as possible) on factors which can influence the forecast Plus it's also a great way to learn as if I say something incorrectly, interpret something wrong (hopefully) someone will call me out on it and I can correct the mistake for the future. The last and least important reason is nobody can say I ripped and read a forecast or copied anyone. I know a certain someone from school who I'm convinced rips and reads off others to make his own forecast 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GansettBay Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 1 minute ago, NeonPeon said: So there are a lots of models that will tell you very good news. Model hugging and a consensus says we get 6-9 inches, but there are a bunch of things that could prevent that from happening. A less wound up storm could give us some hours of poor snow and even rain, with the best banding just north of here, and then when the storm gets organized, the comma head remains to our east, and we are dry/scraps. I can totally see that scenario occurring, and us getting a scrappy 4 inches with some slop in the middle of it. We would have done better with something more organized (who wouldn't). The NAM is the worst reading of any model for newport (2-3 inches?). It can't be totally discounted. My prediction - pain, but that holds no claim on being scientific. BOX have been totally right in slow playing this, though. Lol pain is my prediction too. With so much uncertainty and lack of concensus I have to go with previous trends this winter, less snow and more rain than predicted. Although you are right about the conservative forecasts. It’s really only on this forum that I see people speaking of bigger potential (8+). Everyone else seems to be keeping totals pretty small. I don’t have a strong understand of the models, but from what I recall the nam hasn’t been the worst predictor this season. Correct me if I’m wrong. And thanks a bunch for the input. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Latest HRRRR is like 1-4 inches for all of SNE, even SE MA . Still tossing for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 15 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: EPS copy of op thru 36 I'll take a solid 3-5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 15 minutes ago, GansettBay said: Lol pain is my prediction too. With so much uncertainty and lack of concensus I have to go with previous trends this winter, less snow and more rain than predicted. Although you are right about the conservative forecasts. It’s really only on this forum that I see people speaking of bigger potential (8+). Everyone else seems to be keeping totals pretty small. I don’t have a strong understand of the models, but from what I recall the nam hasn’t been the worst predictor this season. Correct me if I’m wrong. And thanks a bunch for the input. 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 14 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said: Latest HRRRR is like 1-4 inches for all of SNE, even SE MA . Still tossing for now. Pretty nice sim radar on that of you’re in the Boston area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GansettBay Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: 8 I’m gona hold you to that. If I get anything less it will be your fault. And your shoulder I cry on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitzbuhel Craver Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 What are we thinking for duration with this? Like a midnight to noon deal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Thru 6z Nam looks more disjointed with that east convective blob taking over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Not as bullish as some of you yet. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 1 minute ago, Kitzbuhel Craver said: What are we thinking for duration with this? Like a midnight to noon deal? Days and days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 22 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said: Latest HRRRR is like 1-4 inches for all of SNE, even SE MA . Still tossing for now. Lol who cares Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Thru 6z Nam looks more disjointed with that east convective blob taking over The vortmax looks a bit stronger to me. It's a few millibars stronger by 9z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 6 minutes ago, weathafella said: Pretty nice sim radar on that of you’re in the Boston area Somewhere in our area is going to jack. Mid levels are perfect. I'd rather be here than SE MA if that verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 23 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said: Latest HRRRR is like 1-4 inches for all of SNE, even SE MA . Still tossing for now. Stop. Using. Hrrr. Outside. Of. 12. Hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitzbuhel Craver Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Days and days Yeah, I actually just took a look.. GFS hangs quite a bit of moisture back, then the Sunday storm comes right in on its heels. Pretty sweet look there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Much better look at 5h. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Thru 6z Nam looks more disjointed with that east convective blob taking over Beware the eastward slide. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 2 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said: Not as bullish as some of you yet. this the exact map I would put out .. just everything multiplied by 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 This morning I had told my co-workers 4-8" for the Leominster, MA area. Will prob take that down to 3-6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Vorticity is more consolidated on the NAM thus far....that's a good thing. But so far, it's not quite enough to really consolidate the midlevels so this solution may still be dogshit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 2 minutes ago, Kitzbuhel Craver said: Yeah, I actually just took a look.. GFS hangs quite a bit of moisture back, then the Sunday storm comes right in on its heels. Pretty sweet look there Snows late Sat nite into Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBudMan Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 51 minutes ago, Kitzbuhel Craver said: Wiz goin bullish has got me giddy considering he is one of the more conservative forecasters. Love how he is backing it up with some meteorological reasoning, not weenie modelology. Kudos Wiz and Jimmy. Strange bedfellows there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Nammy not quite there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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