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Perhaps a Coastal Storm on March 2nd for SNE????


USCAPEWEATHERAF
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Just now, GansettBay said:

What do y’all think about Newport, RI tomorrow? Crushed or nah?

So there are a lots of models that will tell you very good news.  Model hugging and a consensus says we get 6-9 inches, but there are a bunch of things that could prevent that from happening.  A less wound up storm could give us some hours of poor snow and even rain, with the best banding just north of here, and then when the storm gets organized, the comma head remains to our east, and we are dry/scraps.  I can totally see that scenario occurring, and us getting a scrappy 4 inches with some slop in the middle of it.   We would have done better with something more organized (who wouldn't). 

The NAM is the worst reading of any model for newport (2-3 inches?).  It can't be totally discounted.

My prediction - pain, but that holds no claim on being scientific.  BOX have been totally right in slow playing this, though.

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4 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

BOX playing conservative. Thinking 6-10 here and 8-14” somewhere in SEMA for the jack. 

Yeah they're playing it conservative but it's paid off so far. I could see them still upping this later especially if things swing better for the 18z suit

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27 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

YOU are legit. Your red tag says so

:lol: My winter forecasting still isn't all that great

15 minutes ago, Kitzbuhel Craver said:

Wiz goin bullish has got me giddy considering he is one of the more conservative forecasters. Love how he is backing it up with some meteorological reasoning, not weenie modelology. Kudos

I always try to explain all my thoughts and reasoning behind my forecast (which I'll usually do in a war-and-piece long blog post). 

This helps to me to;

1) Understand the entire situation

2) Make sure I have covered all grounds (or as many as possible) on factors which can influence the forecast

Plus it's also a great way to learn as if I say something incorrectly, interpret something wrong (hopefully) someone will call me out on it and I can correct the mistake for the future. 

The last and least important reason is nobody can say I ripped and read a forecast or copied anyone. I know a certain someone from school who I'm convinced rips and reads off others to make his own forecast :lol: 

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1 minute ago, NeonPeon said:

So there are a lots of models that will tell you very good news.  Model hugging and a consensus says we get 6-9 inches, but there are a bunch of things that could prevent that from happening.  A less wound up storm could give us some hours of poor snow and even rain, with the best banding just north of here, and then when the storm gets organized, the comma head remains to our east, and we are dry/scraps.  I can totally see that scenario occurring, and us getting a scrappy 4 inches with some slop in the middle of it.   We would have done better with something more organized (who wouldn't). 

The NAM is the worst reading of any model for newport (2-3 inches?).  It can't be totally discounted.

My prediction - pain, but that holds no claim on being scientific.  BOX have been totally right in slow playing this, though.

Lol pain is my prediction too. With so much uncertainty and lack of concensus I have to go with previous trends this winter, less snow and more rain than predicted. Although you are right about the conservative forecasts. It’s really only on this forum that I see people speaking of bigger potential (8+). Everyone else seems to be keeping totals pretty small. I don’t have a strong understand of the models, but from what I recall the nam hasn’t been the worst predictor this season. Correct me if I’m wrong. And thanks a bunch for the input. 

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15 minutes ago, GansettBay said:

Lol pain is my prediction too. With so much uncertainty and lack of concensus I have to go with previous trends this winter, less snow and more rain than predicted. Although you are right about the conservative forecasts. It’s really only on this forum that I see people speaking of bigger potential (8+). Everyone else seems to be keeping totals pretty small. I don’t have a strong understand of the models, but from what I recall the nam hasn’t been the worst predictor this season. Correct me if I’m wrong. And thanks a bunch for the input. 

8

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51 minutes ago, Kitzbuhel Craver said:

Wiz goin bullish has got me giddy considering he is one of the more conservative forecasters. Love how he is backing it up with some meteorological reasoning, not weenie modelology. Kudos

 

Wiz and Jimmy.   Strange bedfellows there 

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