ORH_wxman Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Zero doubt that is the general solution. Going to be a another modest event for most....never trust the phase the phase this season. I'm not sure there's ever been a phase in this storm...it's really just a single shortwave...most of the question has been whats going on with the vort energy in this. It's weak and kind of diffuse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Still quite solid in your 'hood....most of the 12z site is still a warning event in SE MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 59 minutes ago, DomNH said: Probably going to see a QPF distribution pretty similar to the 00z Euro at the end of the day I think. Maybe more in srn CT. Steady as she goes holds those reigns tight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Just now, ORH_wxman said: I'm not sure there's ever been a phase in this storm...it's really just a single shortwave...most of the question has been whats going on with the vort energy in this. It's weak and kind of diffuse. Yesterday some the SW back west way trying to phase in. If we had blocking, there would time for this to slow down have more time to congeal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 I don't ever recall the Euro being this consistently off with east coast winter storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I’ve tried before. All he sees is a qpf map and declares that SNE should kiss this one goodbye. For starters, look at a sat loop.. then decide if it’s really going to get tugged east or is that only a figment of models imagination due to convection . Then will there be any mid level banding not being modelled.. etc etc . What are your numbers? I don't think he's necessarily wrong. Unless you have a GFS solution with closed off ML lows which I kind of doubt the strongest 850-700mb fgen is going to be over SEMA and it won't even be that strong. I'm not seeing a big ML magic signal for central/nrn CT. Not kiss it goodbye but I wouldn't go watch/warning for KTOL and surrounding areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 I'll take it. Let's tickle it NW in the final seconds and we're golden. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: I'm not sure there's ever been a phase in this storm...it's really just a single shortwave...most of the question has been whats going on with the vort energy in this. It's weak and kind of diffuse. I have been trying to figure out how he ever saw a phase 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Funny, if it were one of the 23 SWs that cut west, you bet your a$$ that vorticity would have fit together like a glove. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: I have been trying to figure out how he ever saw a phase Its not the main reason for the storm, but yesterday it was hinted that more of the main SW to the west would try to get involved. That is now gone and there is less margin for error with the vorticity from the single SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted March 1, 2019 Author Share Posted March 1, 2019 Just now, Ginx snewx said: I have been trying to figure out how he ever saw a phase The models agree the phase is too late for most of New England, but it happens in time for Hazey and Nova Scotia, Canada, where they get buried over 2' of snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Still quite solid in your 'hood....most of the 12z site is still a warning event in SE MA. Yeah, I'm 90% confident of 6"+. I'm looking for nuaces to crack 10'+. Want to see if the MLs close off for some time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted March 1, 2019 Author Share Posted March 1, 2019 2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Yeah, I'm 90% confident of 6"+. I'm looking for nuaces to crack 10'+. Want to see if the MLs close off for some time. Wow, you are more enthusiastic then I am, 10 feet of snow is a lot to ask for 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 7 minutes ago, DomNH said: I don't think he's necessarily wrong. Unless you have a GFS solution with closed off ML lows which I kind of doubt the strongest 850-700mb fgen is going to be over SEMA and it won't even be that strong. I'm not seeing a big ML magic signal for central/nrn CT. Not kiss it goodbye but I wouldn't go watch/warning for KTOL and surrounding areas. He thinks he’s gonna get warning snows....ain’t happening for him with these trends. If Euro goes east...which it will most likely do, he and I are advisory at best. If things ramp back up on later runs..then that’s a different story. Trend is not his friend at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 I think BOX will have advisories up at 4 pm for most of CT....extreme Eastern areas may get a Warning...depending on Euro's look?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Some really good hits on the GEFS but less than 6z. Almost nowcast time anyways Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JKEisMan Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 8 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: I think BOX will have advisories up at 4 pm for most of CT....extreme Eastern areas may get a Warning...depending on Euro's look?? Albany already has them up for Litchfield for 2-4” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JKEisMan Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Just now, JKEisMan said: Albany already has them up for Litchfield for 2-4” Also Albany humping the Sunday night into Monday event as potentially moderate to heavy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Well go big or go big Wow. That's the exact opposite I was expecting from you lol. Hope you're right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GansettBay Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Anyone have any advice on traveling? I’m at a conference in Portland that’s supposed to go until tomorrow. Would it be ridiculous to try to drive back to Rhode Island around 4pm tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Well go big or go big nice map Wiz - very bullish, just wondering whats your reasoning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Becoming increasingly confident in heavy banding over CT. Bufkit soundings look pretty solid. Nice low track too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Five days ago the Euro had this going thru the Lakes, so things could be a lot worse. Just saying. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 I deleted the OP as the sizing came out awful. I'm becoming very confident in a band of very heavy snow passing over CT. Bufkit soundings show a prolonged period of omega values -10 to -20 within the DGZ with sufficient moisture. Think we could push 12:1 to 13:1 ratios for a time. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 1 minute ago, GansettBay said: Anyone have any advice on traveling? I’m at a conference in Portland that’s supposed to go until tomorrow. Would it be ridiculous to try to drive back to Rhode Island around 4pm tomorrow? Given it's during the day I think salt will make pretty quick work of this outside of the areas in SEMA that get it heavier. Should be done by 4 as well. I have to drive to Littleton, MA tomorrow at noon and I'm not too worried about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GansettBay Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Just now, DomNH said: Given it's during the day I think salt will make pretty quick work of this outside of the areas in SEMA that get it heavier. Should be done by 4 as well. I have to drive to Littleton, MA tomorrow at noon and I'm not too worried about it. I appreciate your opinion, thank you. I think you’re probably right and it’ll be a pretty easy drive home. Now the question is do I want to miss the biggest storm of the year? And how good will it be? I have no answer for that at the moment. 12 inches is worth being home for. I’m ok with missing 6 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 15 minutes ago, GansettBay said: I appreciate your opinion, thank you. I think you’re probably right and it’ll be a pretty easy drive home. Now the question is do I want to miss the biggest storm of the year? And how good will it be? I have no answer for that at the moment. 12 inches is worth being home for. I’m ok with missing 6 inches. I think you'd be fine...especially by that time. I'd drive if it we're me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Hopes and dreams dashed in the next 30 min? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: Hopes and dreams dashed in the next 30 min? YUP! Or Dr. No says we rejoice...but I think it goes east some from earlier just like most of the 12z suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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