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Perhaps a Coastal Storm on March 2nd for SNE????


USCAPEWEATHERAF
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2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The kick due east is what bums me out...that would be a killer here.

This is a really tough forecast. A ramp up or a Messenger-fade both seem possible, and I'm really not confident in one way or the other. Vorticity is buckshot diffuse and models are not handling it well. Overall H5 setup kind of favors Messenger-style fade, but we do have a digging kink.

I think 4-8" Boston southeast / 3-6" northwest is a good starting point.

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57 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Falling apart? :lol: It’s a solid 4-8 west and 6-12 east. Nothing has changed unless someone was thinking 12+

Jimmy Jr, If the Euro goes east...you can kiss any warning snows goodbye for You and I....GFS was still .6 or so for us which isn't bad, but anything less, and it's advisory here we come.  I guess BOX was on to something after all...

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Just now, weathafella said:

Harvey wasn’t on yesterday-sitting this one out?

Yeah I posted his sub Wankum's 11pm forecast... 1-3 / 3-6 straddling Boston. Looked like a very conservative forecast after the 18z-0z party, but maybe he'll get the last laugh. This is not an easy one.

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8 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Jimmy Jr, If the Euro goes east...you can kiss any warning snows goodbye for You and I....GFS was still .6 or so for us which isn't bad, but anything less, and it's advisory here we come.  I guess BOX was on to something after all...

I’m not kissing anything away. This coukd very easily be still 6+ river east 

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

I’m not kissing anything away. This very easily is still 6+ river east 

Just like it was 3-6 Wednesday night huh, when you told RYAN during the day that nothing had changed then too lol.

 

If the Euro goes east...you’re toast too!  You’re another one who sticks your head in the sand.  If the Euro holds or gets a tad more amped..we’re good, otherwise it’s Advisory at best for you Jimmy. 

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10 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Jimmy Jr, If the Euro goes east...you can kiss any warning snows goodbye for You and I....GFS was still .6 or so for us which isn't bad, but anything less, and it's advisory here we come.  I guess BOX was on to something after all...

Why would I give up on this storm if the EURO goes east, that would mean more snow for me

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1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Just like it was 3-6 Wednesday night huh, when you told RYAN during the day that nothing had changed then too lol.

 

If the Euro goes east...you’re toast too!  You’re another one who sticks your head in the sand.  If the Euro holds or gets a tad more amped..we’re good, otherwise it’s Advisory at best for you Jimmy. 

Put modelled qpf away and actually try and understand what is really happening. You do this every storm . You don’t understand the wx

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Put modelled qpf away and actually try and understand what is really happening. You do this every storm . You don’t understand the wx

You should enlighten him on what he should be looking at... what maps are you looking at DIT?  SFC or mid-levels?

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Just now, powderfreak said:

You should enlighten him on what he should be looking at... what maps are you looking at DIT?  SFC or mid-levels?

I’ve tried before. All he sees is a qpf map and declares that SNE should kiss this one goodbye. For starters, look at a sat loop.. then decide if it’s really going to get tugged east or is that only a figment of models imagination due to convection . Then will there be any mid level banding not being modelled.. etc etc . 

What are your numbers?

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3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Put modelled qpf away and actually try and understand what is really happening. You do this every storm . You don’t understand the wx

Like you did on Wednesday??? Lol!   Bro, you are a wishcaster like Jimmy.  Let’s see the Euro...when it goes east then what??  Ukie already east.   Keep stuffing your head in the sand thinking nothing changed like a 12 year old.  Advisory for you and me it is, like it or not.  

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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Ukie is solidly east from last night as well...can't see the queen maps, but we don't need to...it will likely look like a lot of the ones weve seen already based on the sfc/500 charts.

Zero doubt that is the general solution.

Going to be a another moderate event at best for most....never trust the phase this season.

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

I’ve tried before. All he sees is a qpf map and declares that SNE should kiss this one goodbye. For starters, look at a sat loop.. then decide if it’s really going to get tugged east or is that only a figment of models imagination due to convection . Then will there be any mid level banding not being modelled.. etc etc . 

What are your numbers?

From what I've seen (not all that much on this system) I'd say 3-6" seems plausible for you and eastern CT up to ORH.  6"+ in SE MA.  

Its possible a weenie ribbon of 6" is back your way with a mid-level band but I agree with the guys if it doesn't close and stays open wave, it'll be Advisory level for an arc from like you to Ray.

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