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Perhaps a Coastal Storm on March 2nd for SNE????


USCAPEWEATHERAF
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This is a very powerful and energetic storm developing and heading our way.  Does anyone see the storms in Florida Panhandle?  Not only does it take heat for storms to develop, it takes energy in the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere.  Shortwaves provide that source of energy to produce updrafts and CAPE.

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Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

This is a very powerful and energetic storm developing and heading our way.  Does anyone see the storms in Florida Panhandle?  Not only does it take heat for storms to develop, it takes energy in the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere.  Shortwaves provide that source of energy to produce updrafts and CAPE.

Never had convention in FL happened in March. 

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Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

GFS is the same, I don't see any southeast movement everyone says they saw.

You need to really look more carefully especially across the interior zones.  I'm thinking best chance of warning amounts are in southern and eastern ct, ri and southern and eastern ma mainly south of the pike and 84.  Probably 2-5 further west tapering down even further up into the Rt 2 corridor west of ORH county.  

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Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Ok I see the difference in the runs from 6z to 12z.  Its a slight difference, but QPF is not as intense in a 3 hour period, but it is more moderate and more widespread at 12z.

Its probably because you were focusing on your own back yard....understandable. Just remember to try and be intially conservative if there is any doubt...you end up looing a lot more credible.

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Its probably because you were focusing on your own back yard....understandable. Just remember to try and be intially conservative if there is any doubt...you end up looing a lot more credible.

Thanks Ray.  Look I agree, it is not credible being excited for every modeled snow threat.  And I will try to focus on the whole region and not just IMBY anymore.  It is hard to do.

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9 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

GFS is the same, I don't see any southeast movement everyone says they saw.

You seriously need a timeout or something. It clearly did tone down from the 06z run. You're purely wishcasting at this point and only seeing what you want to see. It gets quite annoying after a while

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Mets.. will this have that sneaky band way west or NW of qpf numbers like we so often see with these? When MPM would see 0.4 and think he was getting 2-4”, but would end up 6-10”. Will this have that?

That will depend on how much the midlevels close off...if you close them off, they will typically shove the fronto pretty far NW....but if they remain more open, then it kind of lingers barely north of the center. This isa hard storm to forecast...pretty big bust potential in all directions.

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3 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

Sign me up for the 12z GFS. Goal posts narrowing. Looks like at least a moderate storm for all of SNE. Potential for moderate to heavy for eastern and southeastern SNE. Can’t complain...just got to tune out the debbies. 

Well, it sucks for the "Debbie's" back yards.

Pretty maddening for areas around here, where everything decent goes north, and now south the area. Even more so for SW CT.

I think the mid levels will save me if they close.

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

That will depend on how much the midlevels close off...if you close them off, they will typically shove the fronto pretty far NW....but if they remain more open, then it kind of lingers barely north of the center. This isa hard storm to forecast...pretty big bust potential in all directions.

Will, what did you take from the 24-30 hour period of the mid-level vort maxes?  Did it show you may be a faster phase between them?  It looked like the GFS wanted to phase the GULF storm and the GRT Lakes shortwave a little faster closer to the New England coastline.  Am I seeing things now, or did that really show that?

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13 minutes ago, CTValleySnowMan said:

You need to really look more carefully especially across the interior zones.  I'm thinking best chance of warning amounts are in southern and eastern ct, ri and southern and eastern ma mainly south of the pike and 84.  Probably 2-5 further west tapering down even further up into the Rt 2 corridor west of ORH county.  

NWS has 1-3" here, was 2-4" last night.

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