CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: You are surrounded by water. N, NE E, SE, S, SW, W, and NW scram marine influence. But it’s more than 1.5 miles away from his house. No influence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Just now, dendrite said: Can admin make that James' avatar? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 GFS def looks SE of 06z through 18 hours...seems like 12z is all headed the same direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: How saturated is the DGZ...what’s snow growth looking like There's lift in the DGZ but it's pretty damn weak unless you take the GFS verbatim. I wouldn't be super enthusiastic about forecasting >10:1 and I wouldn't be surprised if it struggles to accumulate in the March daytime given rates probably won't be too impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 GFS. A bit east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Gfs backed down too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: But it’s more than 1.5 miles away from his house. No influence. CAD from the deep sand dune down the street. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted March 1, 2019 Author Share Posted March 1, 2019 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: You are surrounded by water. N, NE E, SE, S, SW, W, and NW scream marine influence. Come on Ray, the water temps have cooled off significantly to my northeast and north, that is where the wind is coming from with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Still a bigger hit than the mesos, but definitely E of 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Come on Ray, the water temps have cooled off significantly to my northeast and north, that is where the wind is coming from with this storm. Yes...36* and not 50*...still a marine influence more hostile to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Still a good one here. Like H7. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Just now, ORH_wxman said: GFS def looks SE of 06z through 18 hours...seems like 12z is all headed the same direction. Precip shield is south and east as well.....might end up being 3-6 for most Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeonPeon Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 This one would really hurt if I wasn't already dead inside. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Still hits SE MA quite nicely. But the kick east is enough to screw most of CT out of the real good stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 We need to over-react less to each model run... and I should not have used the descriptor "huge", that was a mistake. Jerry's right RGEM has been terrible this year, so I wouldn't over-react to that alone. I like Ray's map as a starting point. It has good support from Euro which has been steady outside of the 18z pan-model jail break. I still could see this amping more... just needs vorticity to consolidate better rather than shunting east, something that the models don't seem to have a good handle on and will come down to nowcasting later today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Happy to hear about the mid level magic possibilities. Don’t be a qpf queen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Still a bigger hit than the mesos, but definitely E of 06z. Closes off in MLs, which will be a big factor in pushing totals to double digits down this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted March 1, 2019 Author Share Posted March 1, 2019 GFS is the same, I don't see any southeast movement everyone says they saw. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Just now, weathafella said: Happy to hear about the mid level magic possibilities. Don’t be a qpf queen Midlevels are definitely still nice for SE MA on most of these solutions...prob inlcuding much of BOS area and RI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 1 minute ago, wxsniss said: We need to over-react less to each model run... and I should not have used the descriptor "huge", that was a mistake. Jerry's right RGEM has been terrible this year, so I wouldn't over-react to that alone. I like Ray's map as a starting point. It has good support from Euro which has been steady outside of the 18z pan-model jail break. I still could see this amping more... just needs vorticity to consolidate better rather than shunting east, something that the models don't seem to have a good handle on and will come down to nowcasting later today. That’s his old map. He’s not forecasting 1-3 over 3/4 of SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: GFS is the same, I don't see any southeast movement everyone says they saw. Probably time to retire for good on weather model watching if that's the case.... 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Yeah GFS def toned it down. No more warning snows to CON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Epic blue balling going on for the WOR folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted March 1, 2019 Author Share Posted March 1, 2019 12z GFS closes off at 850mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: GFS is the same, I don't see any southeast movement everyone says they saw. Compare hour 24 between 12z and the previous runs. It ends up being in a good enough spot still for SE MA but is absolutely moved east and made a difference back this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Gfs backed down too. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
correnjim1 Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 I'm sure it will find a way to screw us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: That’s his old map. He’s not forecasting 1-3 over 3/4 of SNE We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Just now, correnjim1 said: I'm sure it will find a way to screw us There’s a reason why we pros can’t all dryhump solutions like the HRDPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Always want the gfs on your side in a coastal lol kidding aside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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