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Perhaps a Coastal Storm on March 2nd for SNE????


USCAPEWEATHERAF
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10 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Do tell....

Don't have totals yet but I'm eyeballing 4-8" for eastern SNE

Question is does this trend continue, and I don't think that's unrealistic... the vorticity is kind of buckshot diffuse, and I think alot of this will come down to nowcasting this evening

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The mesos are 12z are all in pretty decent agreement....advisory snow for interior SNE (less way out into NW MA) and maybe low end warning for SE MA/RI and perhaps parts of S CT.

We saw this at 00z last night and then the globals went more robust (sans Euro)....then mesos came back at 06z only to go weaker at 12z again. We'll see what the globals do. The shunt east after it reaches the delmarva is still bothering me some though....not totally buying it.

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I am not paying attention to this suite, the satellite imagery of the storm shows a strong system, upper support is strong and there is a strong GULF connection with no Atlantic source of moisture yet involved.  This will be a big precipitation and convection maker, the surface low will intensify after hitting the ocean, and then ignites as it hits the Gulf Stream.

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5 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Wut?  It went from a MECS to a run of the mill snowstorm in a 6hr period.  These are night and day different.

I never took the 6z RGEM run seriously, totally coked out starting point

12z RGEM settled on a 4-8" across most of eastern SNE, still a big hit and consistent with Euro

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2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

This is falling apart already lol.....here we go 80's style.  GFS may come in to save the day...or confirms the falsehood of a major storm for most???  Would not surprise if this goes down the tubes..it's been the tenor after all.

The setup never screamed big snow. You don’t have a strong s/w....strong LLJ etc. it was just this blob that some guidance had that dumps on SNE. It’s sort of s red flag. That’s why I said early this morning the RPM made the most sense to me when a much more reasonable solution . It’s also moving  quick. 

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Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

I am not paying attention to this suite, the satellite imagery of the storm shows a strong system, upper support is strong and there is a strong GULF connection with no Atlantic source of moisture yet involved.  This will be a big precipitation and convection maker, the surface low will intensify after hitting the ocean, and then ignites as it hits the Gulf Stream.

Never doubt the gulf stream.

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Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

The amount of precipitation didn't change, there is barely any mixing on Cape Cod where the QPF max is located.  We could see 12:1 ratios as the comma head hits the area along with thundersnow potential.

Enjoy your slop.

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Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

The amount of precipitation didn't change, there is barely any mixing on Cape Cod where the QPF max is located.  We could see 12:1 ratios as the comma head hits the area along with thundersnow potential.

I love your enthusiasm but come on now. 

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11 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

12z RGEM definitely not as coked out as 6z, but still a big hit (i.e., warning) for eastern SNE... 

12z on right

6z_12z_RGEM.jpg.e2c2e8d05f875c159a8e27e009fae7a4.jpg

Trend so far at 12z has been to tug this further east... 

 

 

11 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

RGEM is all snow for Cape Cod even ACK.  Provincetown seems to be the place to be in SNE this storm.  12-20"

Huh??? Not according to the maps posted above. Looks like a mix and/or rain.

Honestly, do you just make these numbers up? 12-20"?  And you wonder how anyone can take you seriously

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Just now, BombsAway1288 said:

 

Huh??? Not according to the maps posted above. Looks like a mix and/or rain.

Honestly, do you just make these numbers up? 12-20"?  And you wonder how anyone can take you seriously

It doesn';t make sense the warmth in the lower levels would come that close to the Cape, we have northeasterly to northerly winds as the storm tracks southeast of ACK and the benchmark.

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3 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

I never took the 6z RGEM run seriously, totally coked out starting point

12z RGEM settled on a 4-8" across most of eastern SNE, still a big hit and consistent with Euro

Still, the 00z run was a huge hit.  The 12z run looks paltry compared to them.

1088069124_qpf_acc.us_ne(2).thumb.png.057f412a4b2093fb9bc533aa57b32aff.png

 

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2 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

The warmth in the low-levels comes from where?  Northeasterly winds don't scream marine influence this time of the year.  Storm track is far enough southeast of ACK the wind direction is northeast to north.

You are surrounded by water. N, NE E, SE, S, SW, W, and NW scream marine influence.

  • Haha 1
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