wxsniss Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Definitely a less amped 12z NAM run... you can see as early as 18hrs (6z Sat) the vorticity shifted a little further east, and H5 is slightly flatter and less kinked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 NAM is going to chase that convection to the ne. Watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 NAM is not biting at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeonPeon Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Do you read the title of the thread? Just be happy it's a valid question. It's been a lean few months. I'm very interested to see the next forecast discussion from box. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Yeah it's running northeast with the convective blob....suspicious, but it doesn't mean its wrong. Convective interference can be real...it's just that often it's an illusion on model guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 10 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Do you think there will be any taint issues along the immediate shoreline? Starting to think that will not be the case. I'm going to look real stupid going from 1-3'' along the shore to 8-12'' lmao You know more than me. se areas always seem to do so with a marginal airmass in place though. No stout high to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 2 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Do you read the title of the thread? more like misread it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 1 minute ago, weathafella said: NAM is going to chase that convection to the ne. Watch Yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Still verbatim a nice snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 3 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said: The Long range HRRRRR is pretty bleh compared to other guidanceTossed. How did 6z EURO look for us coasties? Did the mix line reach the coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: You know more than me. se areas always seem to do so with a marginal airmass in place though. No stout high to the north. They could get saved by a more northerly flow...so even despite no high to the north it might be tough for them to warm enough to taint. If anything they would get a heavy/wet snow. I would think a N wind too could also enhance potential for a huge band of snow right along 95 maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Just now, weathafella said: Still verbatim a nice snow. In line with the tenor of the season, but not a solution in line with what 06z guidance was showing. Shows like a 4-8" storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 It still looks like it ticked a little SE even before it chased the convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 18 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: I think the 12z NAM is going to come in a little less aggressive Smoked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Advisory event on the NAM..the models can't seem to pin down the strength of the SLP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: Still verbatim a nice snow. Yeah I think it's going to be almost impossible for this storm to be a total disaster (as in sub-advisory at this point) for at least the southeast half of SNE....but obviously the question is do we go more the 4-8" route or are we discussing 10-15"+? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted March 1, 2019 Author Share Posted March 1, 2019 Not buying into the NAM yet. Until I see other guidance fold, I will not buy into it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Let's la la la lock that in. A quick hitting mod/heavy snow for the folks down south who need it and pretty much nothing up here in SNH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Yeah I think it's going to be almost impossible for this storm to be a total disaster (as in sub-advisory at this point) for at least the southeast half of SNE....but obviously the question is do we go more the 4-8" route or are we discussing 10-15"+? Been at 8 for 2 days, ain’t changing my thoughts. Thumpity thump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Just now, SouthCoastMA said: Advisory event on the NAM..the models can't seem to pin down the strength of the SLP It's coming down to where the best UL forcing is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah I think it's going to be almost impossible for this storm to be a total disaster (as in sub-advisory at this point) for at least the southeast half of SNE....but obviously the question is do we go more the 4-8" route or are we discussing 10-15"+? Is the sorta dis jointed low the issue w curling the vortmax in or is the flow just not buckled/ slowed enough to give it a easier time to do that what is robbing sne of best forcing on nammy , that eastern other blob? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: In line with the tenor of the season, but not a solution in line with what 06z guidance was showing. Shows like a 4-8" storm. I’m suspicious of convective feedback so waityother guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted March 1, 2019 Author Share Posted March 1, 2019 Our GULF/MO low is finally phasing in together, look at the morphology of the water vapor imagery. Amazing work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JKEisMan Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Nam can’t be right. How can SW CT jack in this kind of setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah I think it's going to be almost impossible for this storm to be a total disaster (as in sub-advisory at this point) for at least the southeast half of SNE....but obviously the question is do we go more the 4-8" route or are we discussing 10-15"+? I think the NAM is vastly overdoing the degree (and strength of convection) in the warm sector out over the ocean. Looks like the NAM gets vort happy around the areas of convection and revolves the configuration of everything based on that....I mean the NAM doesn't look all that bad, but I think in reality this honestly may be something more like the GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Nam used it's own rule and cut numbers in half. It hasn't had a steady run since it picked up on the storm so it is kinda hard to take seriously, plus it is the Nam beyond 6 hours.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 5 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Is the sorta dis jointed low the issue w curling the vortmax in or is the flow just not buckled/ slowed enough to give it a easier time to do that I agree.. always been against the phase. Nice event, but not a nuke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeonPeon Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 The NAMs solution brings rain into play as well. The low takes longer to develop and I can totally buy there being south coast rain/taint with patchier weaker precip and a less wound low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Don't think it's just chasing the convective blob here... you can see differences already by 14 hrs, vorticity is spread out more east and so later does not wrap in Not an unrealistic solution, eSNE widespread 4-8" instead of 8-12"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: Is the sorta dis jointed low the issue w curling the vortmax in or is the flow just not buckled/ slowed enough to give it a easier time to do that This is sort of a chicken/egg argument and both can feed on eachother...if the vortmax is stronger, it will help force the flow to buckle and you'll see this tugged back west...on the flip side, if the flow was already a bit more buckled, you'll see the vortmax curl up to the north easier....even if it's weaker. The problem is we are dealing with a relatively weak vortmax right now...it's not this intense ball of vorticity which would make this a really big storm. So smallish features like convection can wreak havoc on the eventual progression of the whole thing. The pros: The shortwave is already negatively tilted pretty good...so that is going to help a lot. It's why even on these really ugly strung out solutions, we're still somehow getting advisory snow from ASH to ORH and SE and warning snows over SE MA. Cons: Vortmax is weak and the shortwave is relatively "shallow"....meaning it is somewhat disconnected from the main shortwave over the western lakes. This will give a bit of tendency to try and slide the low east....but it can also work in our favor if we deform where that happens. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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