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Perhaps a Coastal Storm on March 2nd for SNE????


USCAPEWEATHERAF
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10 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Do you think there will be any taint issues along the immediate shoreline? Starting to think that will not be the case. I'm going to look real stupid going from 1-3'' along the shore to 8-12'' lmao

You know more than me. se areas always seem to do so with a marginal airmass in place though. No stout high to the north.

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Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

You know more than me. se areas always seem to do so with a marginal airmass in place though. No stout high to the north.

They could get saved by a more northerly flow...so even despite no high to the north it might be tough for them to warm enough to taint. If anything they would get a heavy/wet snow. I would think a N wind too could also enhance potential for a huge band of snow right along 95 maybe? 

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2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Still verbatim a nice snow.

Yeah I think it's going to be almost impossible for this storm to be a total disaster (as in sub-advisory at this point) for at least the southeast half of SNE....but obviously the question is do we go more the 4-8" route or are we discussing 10-15"+?

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I think it's going to be almost impossible for this storm to be a total disaster (as in sub-advisory at this point) for at least the southeast half of SNE....but obviously the question is do we go more the 4-8" route or are we discussing 10-15"+?

Been at 8 for 2 days, ain’t changing my thoughts. Thumpity thump

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I think it's going to be almost impossible for this storm to be a total disaster (as in sub-advisory at this point) for at least the southeast half of SNE....but obviously the question is do we go more the 4-8" route or are we discussing 10-15"+?

Is the sorta dis jointed low the issue w curling the vortmax in or is the flow just not buckled/ slowed enough to give it a easier time to do that 

what is robbing sne of best forcing on nammy , that eastern other blob?

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I think it's going to be almost impossible for this storm to be a total disaster (as in sub-advisory at this point) for at least the southeast half of SNE....but obviously the question is do we go more the 4-8" route or are we discussing 10-15"+?

I think the NAM is vastly overdoing the degree (and strength of convection) in the warm sector out over the ocean. Looks like the NAM gets vort happy around the areas of convection and revolves the configuration of everything based on that....I mean the NAM doesn't look all that bad, but I think in reality this honestly may be something more like the GFS.

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Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Is the sorta dis jointed low the issue w curling the vortmax in or is the flow just not buckled/ slowed enough to give it a easier time to do that 

This is sort of a chicken/egg argument and both can feed on eachother...if the vortmax is stronger, it will help force the flow to buckle and you'll see this tugged back west...on the flip side, if the flow was already a bit more buckled, you'll see the vortmax curl up to the north easier....even if it's weaker. The problem is we are dealing with a relatively weak vortmax right now...it's not this intense ball of vorticity which would make this a really big storm. So smallish features like convection can wreak havoc on the eventual progression of the whole thing.

The pros: The shortwave is already negatively tilted pretty good...so that is going to help a lot. It's why even on these really ugly strung out solutions, we're still somehow getting advisory snow from ASH to ORH and SE and warning snows over SE MA.

Cons: Vortmax is weak and the shortwave is relatively "shallow"....meaning it is somewhat disconnected from the main shortwave over the western lakes. This will give a bit of tendency to try and slide the low east....but it can also work in our favor if we deform where that happens.

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