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Perhaps a Coastal Storm on March 2nd for SNE????


USCAPEWEATHERAF
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Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Just do it man. You’ll feel so much better when you draw your map. 

The GFS has overestimated lift the past few events (and even by quite a bit at times), however, I do think it may be more correct with this one. Even the 6z NAM wasn't terrible. I think it had 15 units of omega. 

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18 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

The GFS has overestimated lift the past few events (and even by quite a bit at times), however, I do think it may be more correct with this one. Even the 6z NAM wasn't terrible. I think it had 15 units of omega. 

Yea and the euro after the zonked solution from 18z is starting to tick to it. You know how she is, never jumps in the sack immediately...you have wine and dine her, make her feel special and welcomed. She has to slowly warm up to the thought that this could be it.

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2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea and the euro after the zonked solution from 18z is starting to tick to it. You know she is, never jumps in the sack immediately...you have wine and dine her, make her feel special and welcomed. She has to slowly warm up to the thought that this could be it.

:lol:

I am a bit worried about the gradient though and where that sets up. I could see some parts of the state pulling off like 8-10'' and other parts like 3-4''

 

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20 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

WSI. 

This is 30 hours...you can see how it's kind of sliding southeast a bit and not curling up into the shortwave very well. This prevents a huge solution.

 

 

IMG_2556.PNG

Thanks Will

That's actually more consolidated than some of the earlier runs that had a separate vorticity lobe further out (like the on the Meh vs. Good GFS comparison I posted last night) 

As for the upstream indicators of Meh vs. Good...?

It seems on the Meh runs, the energy out of the N Gulf emerges further south and shoots more east after it exits Carolinas, whereas on the good runs it tracks more north and curls into the shortwave on the Good runs. This is around 6z Saturday. And further upstream? Hard to identify a consistent difference. Box AFD was commenting that the N Gulf energy was slightly faster than 0z guidance initialized so they preferred Meh, but that was before all the 6z guidance.

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The important energy right now is the Northern US Plains vort max that curls around the Polar Vortex influenced Arctic Jet Stream.  This disturbance can phase into the Gulf Shortwave, we can have a major nor'easter like the GFS shows.  HIRES short range HRRR 12z run shows a powerful storm developing.

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