weatherwiz Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 The 6z GFS has 30 units of omega right into the DGZ at BDL. Tempting to go like 10-14'' off the GFS alone 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Just now, weatherwiz said: The 6z GFS has 30 units of omega right into the DGZ at BDL. Tempting to go like 10-14'' off the GFS alone For Scooter's area or your CT forecast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 How are the mfks (muthafukkas)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Just now, HoarfrostHubb said: For Scooter's area or your CT forecast? CT. Not going to do that, but the GFS is pretty sweet looking here. If 12z runs give these indications may have to go something close. I'm sure there will be some banding where totals may approach these numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Just now, HoarfrostHubb said: How are the mfks (muthafukkas)? muthafukka still sleeping. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: The 6z GFS has 30 units of omega right into the DGZ at BDL. Tempting to go like 10-14'' off the GFS alone Just do it man. You’ll feel so much better when you draw your map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 I thought the 0z eps was better than the op and now that 6z eps is better too...good signs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Just do it man. You’ll feel so much better when you draw your map. The GFS has overestimated lift the past few events (and even by quite a bit at times), however, I do think it may be more correct with this one. Even the 6z NAM wasn't terrible. I think it had 15 units of omega. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 This will be dubbed the Scooter Meltdown storm of 2019. Any updates on start time? Jerry mentioned around Dawn tomorrow. Is this still a good time frame to keep in mind? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: muthafukka still sleeping. No texting while people are sleeping please. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 looks like i will be in luck and get a nice storm in between trips.. will review later but looks like 4-6" north of the pike.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 2 minutes ago, Cold Miser said: No texting while people are sleeping please. I consider getting the muthafukkas snow numbers an emergency 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 18 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: The GFS has overestimated lift the past few events (and even by quite a bit at times), however, I do think it may be more correct with this one. Even the 6z NAM wasn't terrible. I think it had 15 units of omega. Yea and the euro after the zonked solution from 18z is starting to tick to it. You know how she is, never jumps in the sack immediately...you have wine and dine her, make her feel special and welcomed. She has to slowly warm up to the thought that this could be it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 11 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: muthafukka still sleeping. Which one. This one working 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: I consider getting the muthafukkas snow numbers an emergency https://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/synop/avnmosmap.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Just now, weathafella said: Which one. This one working Give us the digits kid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 I’ll never live the Corey rebuke down....lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Yea and the euro after the zonked solution from 18z is starting to tick to it. You know she is, never jumps in the sack immediately...you have wine and dine her, make her feel special and welcomed. She has to slowly warm up to the thought that this could be it. I am a bit worried about the gradient though and where that sets up. I could see some parts of the state pulling off like 8-10'' and other parts like 3-4'' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted March 1, 2019 Author Share Posted March 1, 2019 Jim Cantore mentioned he believes lightning is possible in SNE tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I am a bit worried about the gradient though and where that sets up. I could see some parts of the state pulling off like 8-10'' and other parts like 3-4'' The gradient is evident. 4-8” west, 8-12” east ...of 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 20 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: WSI. This is 30 hours...you can see how it's kind of sliding southeast a bit and not curling up into the shortwave very well. This prevents a huge solution. Thanks Will That's actually more consolidated than some of the earlier runs that had a separate vorticity lobe further out (like the on the Meh vs. Good GFS comparison I posted last night) As for the upstream indicators of Meh vs. Good...? It seems on the Meh runs, the energy out of the N Gulf emerges further south and shoots more east after it exits Carolinas, whereas on the good runs it tracks more north and curls into the shortwave on the Good runs. This is around 6z Saturday. And further upstream? Hard to identify a consistent difference. Box AFD was commenting that the N Gulf energy was slightly faster than 0z guidance initialized so they preferred Meh, but that was before all the 6z guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: The gradient is evident. 4-8” west, 8-12” east ...of 84. Do you think there will be any taint issues along the immediate shoreline? Starting to think that will not be the case. I'm going to look real stupid going from 1-3'' along the shore to 8-12'' lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 I think the 12z NAM is going to come in a little less aggressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted March 1, 2019 Author Share Posted March 1, 2019 The important energy right now is the Northern US Plains vort max that curls around the Polar Vortex influenced Arctic Jet Stream. This disturbance can phase into the Gulf Shortwave, we can have a major nor'easter like the GFS shows. HIRES short range HRRR 12z run shows a powerful storm developing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 11 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: The gradient is evident. 4-8” west, 8-12” east ...of 84. Yup...definitely room for some banding out here too, maybe we get lucky and share a part of that 8-12? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 which storm is being discussed right now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted March 1, 2019 Author Share Posted March 1, 2019 Just now, J Paul Gordon said: which storm is being discussed right now? Do you read the title of the thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 11 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: I think the 12z NAM is going to come in a little less aggressive Yeah looks worse than 06z...sliding further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 The Long range HRRRRR is pretty bleh compared to other guidanceTossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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