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Perhaps a Coastal Storm on March 2nd for SNE????


USCAPEWEATHERAF
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Just now, CoastalWx said:

 RPM actually kind of makes sense to me. It’s got a ribbon up about 6 to 9 inches from I 84 to the pike on south.

I'm thinking the max totals within the banding are probably right around 8-10''. Think it will be tough to really do better than that unless a band completely rips over someone. Tough to figure out the placement. Still seems like convection is throwing off the NAM...it's VV distribution doesn't seem to make much sense as well as a few other things on the NAM

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39 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I pick on them but anyone paying attention to their winter forecasts knows. They choke on big events and can’t get smaller events right. It’s amazing the amount of knowledge and resources they have there... and yet, they continuously butt fumble. 

#youknow.

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1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Isn’t he Chatham??  He’s out of control already. 

Well he’s on the line. Some soundings he’s close to mixing at H9 on down. Either way it will probably be paste at the peak so I wouldn’t toss around 20” with 1.2” QPF. I just don’t understand the confidence that CQX will mix, but one town to the west won’t. 

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1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said:

This looks like another nice storm for a region that still has a huge seasonal snowfall deficit. 3"-6"/4"-8" should be fairly common in places including Boston, Hartford, Providence, and Worcester with even several inches on parts of the Cape.

Oh no, Jimmy on the cape says 20 inches there Don. Better up it out that way.

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4-8 for most of CT, a little less nw and a bit more to the east. I am sure there will be a band some where that could produce 8-12. If the storm develops earlier then maybe it becomes a region wide 8-12 inch storm... If its dumping snow in the northern Mid Atlantic tonight, then we should be good for some higher totals.

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Just now, Hoth said:

Getting a nice little pre here this morning. Light accumulation ongoing. It just snows where it wants to snow.

Lol, yup...more impactful to the commute this morning than yesterday's advisory we had. People around here don't seem to believe any forecasts anymore...its been a rough winter with "busts" on most of these nuisance systems.

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7 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

I think a watch from bos to pvd se is justified. Theres enough uncertainty to not go further nw, i think. Theres a lot of spread over all the guidance. The wrf arw/nmm suite was really dry on the 00z runs. The eps being a tick nw of the op was a good sign. 

I'm really surprised there is no watch in SE MA and RI. I would think 50% confidence in 6+ there is warranted. But I guess this came on so fast that it's leaving everyone a little snakebit and that's been the background tenor of the winter. 

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'm really surprised there is no watch in SE MA and RI. I would think 50% confidence in 6+ there is warranted. But I guess this came on so fast that it's leaving everyone a little snakebit and that's been the background tenor of the winter. 

Pros who have a civil duty to the public should not be snakebit. Do you job.

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1 minute ago, Spanks45 said:

Lol, yup...more impactful to the commute this morning than yesterday's advisory we had. People around here don't seem to believe any forecasts anymore...its been a rough winter with "busts" on most of these nuisance systems.

This. Was going to say the same. The snow this morning, which is more in terms of amount and having much more impact than the previous event at least in this part of state, was pretty much unmentioned. Why should people believe forecasts for tonight/tomorrow. 

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10 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

Lol, yup...more impactful to the commute this morning than yesterday's advisory we had. People around here don't seem to believe any forecasts anymore...its been a rough winter with "busts" on most of these nuisance systems.

Yeah, yesterday there were school delays all over down here for a dusting and wet roads. Today everyone's heading into school with moderate snow and slick conditions.

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1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Pros who have a civil duty to the public should not be snakebit. Do you job.

I mean, I don't know if that's the reason. I'm just speculating so keep that in mind...I'm just not sure how there's not at least a 50% chance of 6+ in SE MA/RI at this point. I get that they didn't see the 06z suite yet which came in pretty robust (pending euro in a few minutes). But even most of the cruddy solutions were still decent in SE MA at 00z. 

Anyway, doesn't really change anything in terms of what the storm actually does...hopefully Euro comes back a little in a few min. 

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