wxsniss Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 0z looks more like 12z run rather than a toned down 18z Still a decent hit, verbatim qpf roughly: 3-6 Worcester east 6-12 South Shore to canal ~ 12 most of Cape Cod Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Most of it is done by then...there may be leftover -SN/SHSN as the trough swings through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Just now, wxsniss said: 0z looks more like 12z run rather than a toned down 18z Still a decent hit, roughly: 3-6 Worcester east 6-12 South Shore to canal ~ 12 most of Cape Cod I think it would be more than that with banding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 1 minute ago, wxsniss said: 0z looks more like 12z run rather than a toned down 18z Still a decent hit, verbatim qpf roughly: 3-6 Worcester east 6-12 South Shore to canal ~ 12 most of Cape Cod Oh boy.....thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: Most of it is done by then...there may be leftover -SN/SHSN as the trough swings through. I know that, but it still shows where banding set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: I know that, but it still shows where banding set up. I wish they had H7 contours with that map instead of RH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: I wish they had H7 contours with that map instead of RH. I know, but the QPF gradient is a crude approximation, and that aligns....just a guess on my part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Even with the Euro not being jacked as the other 0z guidance, it was an awesome suite. I'm fully satisfied with 6-12 for Sat if you compromise everything, obv hoping for more. Cantore will probably be on the first flight into BOS tomorrow morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 I think we end up with two 6-12" events for a large portion of the area. No nuke...but two nice events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Where are you guys accessing 18z Euro H5 / vorticity plots? Weathermodels.com only has surface plots and upper level temps. I don't think so many models jumping at 18z was coincidence, but I haven't traced back what the exact cause might be... I think the shortwaves are ~ over Rockies and Texas at the moment. The solution is very sensitive to handling of multiple pieces of vorticity. Comparisons clipped from GFS... the far southeast vorticity was creating a diffuse / dual low structure on earlier runs: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think we end up with two 6-12" events for a large portion of the area. No nuke...but two nice events. id be happy with 3-6 and 3-6 tbh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Just now, The 4 Seasons said: id be happy with 3-6 and 3-6 tbh. I've had enough of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
203whiteout Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 47 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: For those interested RPM 3Z came in much better again. Swath of 6-8 from SW CT into NE MA. 4-6 on either side of that for the rest of CT. Thanks 4 update! Do you by any chance have a link or image? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I've had enough of that. lol I'm with you on that even though you've had more than me. Let's get at least one double digit storm for as much as SNE as possible. Hard to think we can't pull that off the way things are looking right now. Obviously things can still change for a lot of people but it was a very good night overall. Time to finally rest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 30 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think it would be more than that with banding. For sure, just putting up the verbatim qpf for easiest run to run comparisons This is a good system for deformation banding, maybe roughly northeast MA to between Worcester and 495, obviously will depend on where this tracks I'm still puzzling over the 18z jump, can't be coincidence. And not characteristic of Euro to make such a big jump. I would've expected the progression of Euro solutions to be more like 12z --> 0z --> 18z Still think we end up warning+ most of eastern SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted March 1, 2019 Author Share Posted March 1, 2019 There is a strong potential for thunder snows in SE MA and RI on Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 5 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: There is a strong potential for thunder snows in SE MA and RI on Saturday. Go to bed. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 6z NAM way better than 00z. Good shellacking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted March 1, 2019 Author Share Posted March 1, 2019 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: 6z NAM way better than 00z. Good shellacking. Just about to say that. I got to bed when I am tired, I slept all afternoon yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted March 1, 2019 Author Share Posted March 1, 2019 Obviously got is go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 BOX map doesn’t look quite right based on guidance...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted March 1, 2019 Author Share Posted March 1, 2019 2 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said: BOX map doesn’t look quite right based on guidance...? They are stubbornly conservative this goes around, this is not the storm to be quiet about or conservative about. Models show thundersnow potential across eastern MA, they also show winds in excess of 40 knots across the Cape and islands, the problem is visibility might not get low enough to issue a Blizzard Watch currently. Potential exists for over a foot of snow from HYA westward to coastal and interior SE MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Not sure there is the instability for TSSN. Also I can't blame them for being conservative as of now., esp 95 corridor on west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted March 1, 2019 Author Share Posted March 1, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: Not sure there is the instability for TSSN. Also I can't blame them for being conservative as of now., esp 95 corridor on west. They do pay attention to the latest 6z guidance, right? NAM came in hotter with QPF amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: They do pay attention to the latest 6z guidance, right? NAM came in hotter with QPF amounts. That map was made before it came out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted March 1, 2019 Author Share Posted March 1, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: That map was made before it came out. But not their AFD? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted March 1, 2019 Author Share Posted March 1, 2019 Baroclinic leaf developing with our GOM low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 I'm sure the forecasters at BOX are monitoring this thread and are probably saying, "oh shit, Jimmy's up and the 6z NAM just bombed us, someone update the maps, stat!" 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 BOX 3AM AFD: “SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... Fast-moving, open-wave preference with low-mid level focus primarily within an anti-cyclonic branch of a warm-moist conveyor belt beneath support aloft brought via H3 right-rear-quadrant jet streak. Thus, greater weighting towards NAM / WRF solutions, some blending with EC. Why? Feel both the present upper OH River Valley and N Gulf impulse energy are slightly faster than global guidance has initialized. Also, the NW Atlantic remains wide open. While trends have a slower N Gulf impulse intercepted by E-Rockies lee cyclogenesis in vicinity of S New England, have lower confidence of slower, storm maturation given the synoptic pattern as of late. Again, preference to faster solutions, focus within the front-end thump however some back-peeling N/W of the precip-shield brought about via the neighboring H3 RRQ jet streak and lowering H5 heights / troughing parent with additional up- stream Pacific energy out of the Great Lakes. Non-GFS, keep the storm at or outside of the 40N / 70W benchmark on Saturday. NAM / WRF / EC solution preference. A slower, inside the benchmark solution just doesn`t feel right given recent synoptics. Not favoring a deeper grasp on the N Gulf impulse, trowaling moisture back and further N that would net higher snowfall amounts as the GFS suggests. Not like the GFS solution is being ignored, just not being weighted with this forecast. It`s certainly not out of the realm of possibility. So, altogether, when taking marginal thermal fields as is exhibited by forecast model thicknesses yielding a wintry mix and/or heavier, wet snow closer to the coast, out across the Cape and Islands, with lower snow to liquid ratios as a result, have generally a 3 to 6" event over RI and Southeast MA, up into the Boston-metro, while 1 to 3" over the Cape and Islands, as well as N/W of the 3 to 6" swath, while northwest MA sees a coating up to 1". WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY posted over portions of E/SE MA where confidence is highest of 3 to 6" amounts. This region coinciding with colder air and H9-7 frontogenesis / deformation N/E of the coastal low. Other things that come to mind: Will there be accumulation issues with a heavier, wet snow? Perhaps with marginal lapse rates and 2m temperatures around freezing during the daytime? Any issues with heavy, wet snow on tree limbs especially as we approach 6-inches? Think once we gain more confidence on snowfall amounts that we can answer these questions.” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Really? This is where we are going for the AM shift into Friday? I realize confidence is not high, but i expected watches at least for E and SE MA into RI. Not only do they not have that but they have this narrow band of advisories. Models as a whole ramped up and not decreased for the AM shift, but yet they went the other way for snow totals. Not that it will change the outcome, im just pretty surprised at this. They must only be using the FV3 and NAM at 00z, that's the only way this makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now