40/70 Benchmark Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 UK looks like the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: UK looks like the GFS That's a good thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 The whole duration thing is overrated IMHO....how often do we really see 1"/hr+ snows protracted over the span of 24 hours, anyway? Occlusion will usually limit it. The real key is to have H85 through H5 close off about over the cape....its about track and timing of developmental lifecycle of mid level lows. Get that right, and I'll show you 2'+ in 12 hours. Just speaking in a theoretical sense...NOT a forecast. What a blocky pattern does is not only buy you that extra 6", but it makes the amplification and/or phasing needed to get those type of systems more likely...not to mentioned preventing too much amplification. The stalling notion may mean the difference between 24" and 30", but its not as a big of a deal as folks think, unless you get off on an extra 12 hours of currier and ives like Kev. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Wow. Ray is forecasting 2 feet. Spread the word. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Oh boy.....figures our cape trip this weekend features a Cape Cod classic as this shitty shitty season of shit comes to a close......me and James gonna hole up at some random Pleasant Lake bar while the Cape showcases its wintery fury......how great would that be to end the Season of Yore? lol We're here at Oceans Edge in Brewster tonight through Sunday for sons hockey tournament......2 games tomorrow and 1 game on Saturday......at Charles Moore in Orleans......I was pleasantly surprised by the fresh coating of powder out here when we arrived tonight......come on James.....this is the Capes chance to shine!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 48 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: GFS coolwx.com sounding for CHH shows 24"+ of snow for Saturday. ahahahahahaha......we're here in Brewster for sons hockey tournament in Orleans......jesus christ if 24" comes.....tourney cancel lolz......we should park it at some bar near us and talk snow....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 19 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Wow. Ray is forecasting 2 feet. Spread the word. That's a misquote... he said it'll stall for 30" 18z Euro verbatim has 2"/hr rates for 4 hours in Plymouth area, 1"/hr rates for 6 hours much of eastern SNE... 0z UK, HRPDS, GFS in same ballpark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Just now, wxsniss said: That's a misquote... he said it'll stall for 30" 18z Euro verbatim has 2"/hr rates for 4 hours in Plymouth area, 1"/hr rates for 6 hours much of eastern SNE... 0z UK, HRPDS, GFS in same ballpark I know.... I was ribbing him on purpose. Classic DIT move. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Just now, ORH_wxman said: I know.... I was ribbing him on purpose. Classic DIT move. I know, I was being sarcastic lol Only consistent outlier is NAM and we have a reasonable explanation for it. If 0z Euro holds serve (and I'd be shocked if it did not given other 0z guidance), I think we are locked and loaded. Don't see this tracking much further northwest (though never say never), and even a correction back southeast tomorrow keeps a big chunk of SNE warning + Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 For those interested RPM 3Z came in much better again. Swath of 6-8 from SW CT into NE MA. 4-6 on either side of that for the rest of CT. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Ukie 0°C 850 line gets up to BOS at hr 36 and then collapses SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Just now, 78Blizzard said: Ukie 0°C line gets up to BOS at hr 36 and then collapses SE. There will be some dynamical cooling going on with this system. With a closed 700mb low off the coast, we shouldn't have too much issue staying snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Euro looks slightly toned down from 18z....the heights are actually higher out ahead of it, but the vortmax is weaker so the storm isn't bombing as quickly. Should still be a good solution though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderblizzard Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Euro looks a bit worse than 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Euro looks slightly toned down from 18z....the heights are actually higher out ahead of it, but the vortmax is weaker so the storm isn't bombing as quickly. Should still be a good solution though. yeah probably a little east and toned down from 18z..not too surprising but still good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Actually pretty decent cutback on QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Yeah you can really see it at 42 hours...18z was like 995mb and this run is about 1003 or 1004. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Euro with a GFS-like change in 6 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Yeah you can really see it at 42 hours...18z was like 995mb and this run is about 1003 or 1004. Probably end up a like a 6-12" deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Euro has a stronger vortmax at 18 hours, but then it is a lot weaker by the time we get to 30-36 hours...that's the key on this run because the heights out ahead of it during those times is actually higher than the 18z run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Euro has a stronger vortmax at 18 hours, but then it is a lot weaker by the time we get to 30-36 hours...that's the key on this run because the heights out ahead of it during those times is actually higher than the 18z run. It should be less amped with Monday, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 It has the s/w in two pieces where 18z sort of phased it and sharpened the trough. Not sure if that is correct or not...EPS will be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Slight improvement over 12z for Saturday, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: It has the s/w in two pieces where 18z sort of phased it and sharpened the trough. Not sure if that is correct or not...EPS will be interesting. I could see that...I mentioned earlier, bet against phasing this season. Still should be a good event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 GEFS much more bullish than 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Saturday actually has a good banding signal from back through ORH county on Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 If we didn't have the 18z to look at as of recent, we would call this run an improvement and a step in the right direction. But now that we have the 18z to look at its the exact opposite. It's better than 12Z and thats all i really care about at this point, take the 6Z and 18Z runs with a grain of salt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Saturday actually has a good banding signal from back through ORH county on Saturday. How does the Cape look? I wouldn't normally ask this but since I'm sitting here in Brewster for the weekend I figured I would.....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It has the s/w in two pieces where 18z sort of phased it and sharpened the trough. Not sure if that is correct or not...EPS will be interesting. Seems like this is going to be an issue on guidance....we're seeing some pretty decent swings for solutions inside of 36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Saturday actually has a good banding signal from back through ORH county on Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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