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Perhaps a Coastal Storm on March 2nd for SNE????


USCAPEWEATHERAF
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17 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It’s not a 180, just a gradual step up as reliable guidance indicates. I thought 2-4” nw of 84 and 4-8” se would be a reasonable call for tonight. 

Then what do you do when 12z ticks back the other way? Ryan already had 3-6 basically to the CT/RI border and said stay tuned because things were trending towards a bigger hit. As it stands now, he can just drag that 3-6 purple shading 40 miles westward over New London County.

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4 minutes ago, snowman21 said:

Then what do you do when 12z ticks back the other way? Ryan already had 3-6 basically to the CT/RI border and said stay tuned because things were trending towards a bigger hit. As it stands now, he can just drag that 3-6 purple shading 40 miles westward over New London County.

Exactly.

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Is Saturday trends back some, we had better see Monday do the same, or I'm going to melt all over the forum

I agree with Will. I think I'm pretty optimistic for something. My guess is the 18z suite won't happen...but something rather siggy on table. Of course 00z could get the weenies upset, and then 6z and 12z ticks back NW again.

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

I agree with Will. I think I'm pretty optimistic for something. My guess is the 18z suite won't happen...but something rather siggy on table. Of course 00z could get the weenies upset, and then 6z and 12z ticks back NW again.

Knowing the EURO, it will trend Monday into something lame, like 3-6", then Monday it will be even hair more amped.

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Euro, ENS, GFS, GEFS... that's some legit weight

RGEM has been awful unstable this year

NAM has had its scores this year, but I think it's now having issues chasing all the little pieces of vorticity

And most of all, synoptically a more amped solution (vs. earlier runs) actually makes sense. 

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Just now, wxsniss said:

Euro, ENS, GFS, GEFS... that's some legit weight

RGEM has been awful unstable this year

NAM has had its scores this year, but I think it's now having issues chasing all the little pieces of vorticity

And most of all, synoptically a more amped solution (vs. earlier runs) actually makes sense. 

Agree...18z may have been a bit zonked, but I think its generally right. NAM likes to play pin the tail on the weenie with little pieces of convection out in the ocean.

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14 minutes ago, snowman21 said:

Then what do you do when 12z ticks back the other way? Ryan already had 3-6 basically to the CT/RI border and said stay tuned because things were trending towards a bigger hit. As it stands now, he can just drag that 3-6 purple shading 40 miles westward over New London County.

This x1000. Basically would be changing maps based on one 18z suite. Then what do you do when things start going the other way for the 00z suite like they look like they're doing already

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