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Perhaps a Coastal Storm on March 2nd for SNE????


USCAPEWEATHERAF
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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

From a synoptic pattern perspective, the bigger solution does look pretty reasonable...we've got a negatively tilted shortwave loaded with gulf moisture. There's not a lot that wants to shove it east on a scenario like that.

It’s also not an amplified pattern.  Flow is actually zonal across the country so it’s not going to gain much latitude either.

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RGEM is a mess too...18z had a nuking consolidated low....this is like 12-14mb weaker and not consolidated. It's still a pretty good snowstorm, but not like 18z. Clearly, the mesos are not feeling the consolidated idea on the 00z run. It will be interesting to see what the global models do.

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

RGEM is a mess too...18z had a nuking consolidated low....this is like 12-14mb weaker and not consolidated. It's still a pretty good snowstorm, but not like 18z. Clearly, the mesos are not feeling the consolidated idea on the 00z run. It will be interesting to see what the global models do.

If this ever fell apart, oh the melts.

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

If this ever fell apart, oh the melts.

I don't think it will end up well east like earlier runs....but I could see the 18z nuke idea being overdone. But I don't really see this becoming a 1-3" scraper for SE MA like we saw yesterday. I think we've locked in the idea of a further west shortwave climbing the east side of the longwave trough....but the consolidated nuke idea is still in doubt.

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Just now, weathafella said:

Reggie is still 6+ for most of us.  

Yeah it's still a good storm, but it's not the 18z run...the warning criteria area def is smaller this time....it's not as paltry as the NAM at all though.

For the QPF queens.....

 

Mar1_00zRGEM.png

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Just now, The 4 Seasons said:

 we've seen massive model discrepancy closer than 24hrs out. Jan 26th 2015 and march 21st 2018.  Every model expect the ec had a Foot+ for sne up until go time on 3/21/18.

What was the event in like March 2010 that ended up as a sloppy inch or so with some rain that the NAM had as a 12''+ isothermal interior paste bomb like 12 hours out? That was probably the worst I can remember. 

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Just now, The 4 Seasons said:

 we've seen massive model discrepancy closer than 24hrs out. Jan 26th 2015 and march 21st 2018.  Every model expect the ec had a Foot+ for sne up until go time on 3/21/18.

Pretty amazing how where I am had two big busts in the negative direction in March 2018 and I still ended up with over 40 inches for the month. The March 2nd storm was a big bust....we were supposed to flip to snow and get 5-8/6-10 but instead it took until about 7-8pm to flip and we only got about 1.5 inches. That storm and Mar 21 were awful....but those other two monsters made up for it, lol....but it could have been a legit 60 inch month if those other two didn't fail.

 

Anyways, bit OT there. Despite some of the uglier looking meso runs at 00z, I'm still pretty optimistic on this system. I think there's more mechanisms to move this a bit NW versus east.

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