Spanks45 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 30 minutes ago, Hoth said: Jesus. Well, it would fit this winter perfectly. at least our area kinda jackpots, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: mm... k, buuut... there's some large more super-synoptic scaled arguments I've had all along in mind, that sort of keep/kept me from being too bullish. I could see it going either way - still within margins of error to go only 50 % of consensus totals, and due to the endemic uncertainty with an inherent "needle threader" system and exact course and banding, having weird strike back gashing from HFD- to BED I could see that too... Barring the lesser likely, though, this "should be" a narrow impactor, hauling ass like bats leavin' hell. Translation timing alone playing a limiting factor as well... Compressed, high velocity patterns limit impacts to narrow regions... doing so with middling over all mechanical strength has left me scratching heads to find where 6-8 " come from but again,.. margin for error is bit higher This certainly can still go either way. At least for myself, I went bullish b/c I was quite impressed with the signal for banding traversing a good part of CT. I know there had been some differences and changes to QPF, but analyzing the mid-levels and profiles I felt that despite the QPF showings the look presented is good and I don't see why precipitation shouldn't blossom and with that lift into the DGZ we would maximize things well. I do agree about the speed...this thing is hauling pretty good and that is something that can really screw the higher end of calls. At least with this though I think this is an event where you're probably at least 1/2'' (and maybe closer to 1''/HR) rates for a good part of the storm. This isn't one where you're dealing with crap growth and light rates for a few hours and end like that...it's going to be a pretty solid ordeal of snow from start to finish. There of course will be that deadly sharp-cutoff gradient somewhere which will yield a different type of hell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Can't see H7 Verbatim qpf (to compare to 12z, ticked less further NW but more southeast MA to Cape): 6"-12" just south of Boston to RI border to canal 12"+ canal and northern Cape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 18z Euro still looks good for several inches along and east of 84 (but this is without looking at crazy details) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 No real change on the 18Z euro besides noise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 We stay: 3-6 WOR 6-9 EOR 9-12 SEMA whiners 12-16 jacks Jimmy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 5 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: at least our area kinda jackpots, lol I'll take it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 8 minutes ago, Sugarloaf1989 said: Not expecting more than 3-4" here. That's what I'm thinking maybe 2 to 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: We stay: 3-6 WOR 6-9 EOR 9-12 SEMA whiners 12-16 jacks Jimmy no one is getting 12-16 imo. Otherwise i think id save a couple off of those numbers...i hope you are right though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 4 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: That's what I'm thinking maybe 2 to 4 Hopefully it's not several hours of Graupel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 I’d sell 12-16 hard. Jack zone is going to be 6-10’’ IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiger_deF Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Do we nowcast in this thread also? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Semper911 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: Thanks man that’s Messenger like Damn I was thinking the same thing. I knew he would live on through us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 8 minutes ago, DomNH said: I’d sell 12-16 hard. Jack zone is going to be 6-10’’ IMO. Agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Just now, SouthCoastMA said: Agree My guess is nobody is seeing double digits... jackpot my guess would be like carver with 9”.... not being a Debby... should be a nice event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Watch and learn kids. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Water vapor update feel from Mets? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 High bust potential with this either way. This is a nowcast event if there ever was one. A big driver of the event is buckshot small pieces of vorticity, and everything depends on how these consolidate and track overnight. IMO (and I've been staring at this on off since Jimmy's post this morning), nothing glaring in current water vapor to indicate which way yet, but the next few hours are critical. There's no obvious intense convection far east (purple circle below), and most of the activity is over NC/VA which is good (2 black circles below). But it's really the next 8 hours that are critical. In the big hits last night, activity in the left black circle dominated and the right black circle kind of diminished or circled north. In the more east hits, activity in the right black circle persists and tracks further east. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Water vapor update feel from Mets? I see a pig 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Storms firing east of NC.. starting to think this slides east! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: I see a pig Looks like its flying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 5 minutes ago, wxsniss said: High bust potential with this either way. This is a nowcast event if there ever was one. A big driver of the event is buckshot small pieces of vorticity, and everything depends on how these consolidate and track overnight. IMO (and I've been staring at this on off since Jimmy's post this morning), nothing glaring in current water vapor to indicate which way yet, but the next few hours are critical. There's no obvious intense convection far east (purple circle below), and most of the activity is over NC/VA which is good (2 black circles below). But it's really the next 8 hours that are critical. In the big hits last night, activity in the left black circle dominated and the right black circle kind of diminished or circled north. In the more east hits, activity in the right black circle persists and tracks further east. Seems like synoptically all the ingredients which would favor developing convection remain closer to land. Best ulvl divergence is right where the convection currently is and looks like we should be seeing increasing ulvl divergence as well should help promote a northward blossoming of precip. I’m sure there may be other factors which enhance the development of convection of ocean, but ulvl seem to favor land Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Final call for tonight's storm in CT. Forecast based on short term mesos/EC. GFS was tossed. I'm pretty bearish on this event after looking at the trends, bufkit, etc. I see no real reason to go higher anywhere right now. I hope im wrong but this is my honest thinking right now. Once you have your final snowfall total just tag me and ill add it to the accumulation map. I'm very interested to see how this plays out. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Just now, The 4 Seasons said: Final call for tonight's storm in CT. Forecast based on short term mesos/EC. GFS was tossed. I'm pretty bearish on this event after looking at the trends, bufkit, etc. I see no real reason to go higher anywhere right now. I hope im wrong but this is my honest thinking right now. Once you have your final snowfall total just tag me and ill add it to the accumulation map. I'm very interested to see how this plays out. What would you say for Boston and SE mass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: What would you say for Boston and SE mass The 2-5 line would stretch just north of boston and i would have an area of 5-8 for SE MA and cape. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Sticking with 6-10 here to inside 128 and SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Hearing the 18z Euro amped up a bit makes me feel more confident in 8-10”+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: Hearing the 18z Euro amped up a bit makes me feel more confident in 8-10”+ I think your area does the best. Best odds of a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: Hearing the 18z Euro amped up a bit makes me feel more confident in 8-10”+ Yes. Congrats man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 I’m happy this storm will have more base to the snow. Yesterday’s 6” was nice, but it was 100% treble...just doesn’t stand a chance to the March sun angle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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