tiger_deF Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 We will have to see if the Euro also adjusts southeast or sticks to it's guns/trends north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: The kick due east is what bums me out...that would be a killer here. This is a really tough forecast. A ramp up or a Messenger-fade both seem possible, and I'm really not confident in one way or the other. Vorticity is buckshot diffuse and models are not handling it well. Overall H5 setup kind of favors Messenger-style fade, but we do have a digging kink. I think 4-8" Boston southeast / 3-6" northwest is a good starting point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted March 1, 2019 Author Share Posted March 1, 2019 ULJ is curling into the storm system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 1 minute ago, NorEastermass128 said: Understandable. Not your fault...that's why it gets so snippy here sometimes..all of the little nuances in everyone's mood and perceptions. The GFS is still good for you on the heels of a 6" jackpot yesterday....not surprised you aren't a Debbie. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Interestingly enough the FV3 being the "snowy" model hasn't really gotten on board the whole time...might have been a red flag the whole time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted March 1, 2019 Author Share Posted March 1, 2019 It is quite the intense situation for the pro mets on tv and working otherwise. We have a huge bust potential between 1-3" and as much as 6-12" potentially. Huge difference. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 4 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: It is quite the intense situation for the pro mets on tv and working otherwise. We have a huge bust potential between 1-3" and as much as 6-12" potentially. Huge difference. So you're off the 12-20 inch train for a bit??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Harvey wasn’t on yesterday-sitting this one out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 57 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Falling apart? It’s a solid 4-8 west and 6-12 east. Nothing has changed unless someone was thinking 12+ Jimmy Jr, If the Euro goes east...you can kiss any warning snows goodbye for You and I....GFS was still .6 or so for us which isn't bad, but anything less, and it's advisory here we come. I guess BOX was on to something after all... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
correnjim1 Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 advisory just updated still 3-6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 BOX hoisted for 2-4'' ORH northeast. I think that's reasonable. I still like 1-3'' here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Just now, weathafella said: Harvey wasn’t on yesterday-sitting this one out? Yeah I posted his sub Wankum's 11pm forecast... 1-3 / 3-6 straddling Boston. Looked like a very conservative forecast after the 18z-0z party, but maybe he'll get the last laugh. This is not an easy one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 8 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Jimmy Jr, If the Euro goes east...you can kiss any warning snows goodbye for You and I....GFS was still .6 or so for us which isn't bad, but anything less, and it's advisory here we come. I guess BOX was on to something after all... I’m not kissing anything away. This coukd very easily be still 6+ river east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Just now, DomNH said: BOX hoisted for 2-4'' ORH northeast. I think that's reasonable. I still like 1-3'' here. dom, for ASH, density? fluff or paste type? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Just now, 512high said: dom, for ASH, density? fluff or paste type? Guessing pretty standard stuff. Neither paste nor fluff. Should be pretty easy to nuke with salt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: I’m not kissing anything away. This very easily is still 6+ river east Just like it was 3-6 Wednesday night huh, when you told RYAN during the day that nothing had changed then too lol. If the Euro goes east...you’re toast too! You’re another one who sticks your head in the sand. If the Euro holds or gets a tad more amped..we’re good, otherwise it’s Advisory at best for you Jimmy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted March 1, 2019 Author Share Posted March 1, 2019 10 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Jimmy Jr, If the Euro goes east...you can kiss any warning snows goodbye for You and I....GFS was still .6 or so for us which isn't bad, but anything less, and it's advisory here we come. I guess BOX was on to something after all... Why would I give up on this storm if the EURO goes east, that would mean more snow for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Just now, DomNH said: Guessing pretty standard stuff. Neither paste nor fluff. Should be pretty easy to nuke with salt. Thanks sitting on a lot of that!... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted March 1, 2019 Author Share Posted March 1, 2019 The HRRR is slowing the onset of the storm down further and further each hour run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted March 1, 2019 Author Share Posted March 1, 2019 The GULF disturbance is strong, heavy lightning along the warm front over SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: The HRRR is slowing the onset of the storm down further and further each hour run. The hrrr is useless at this range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: Just like it was 3-6 Wednesday night huh, when you told RYAN during the day that nothing had changed then too lol. If the Euro goes east...you’re toast too! You’re another one who sticks your head in the sand. If the Euro holds or gets a tad more amped..we’re good, otherwise it’s Advisory at best for you Jimmy. Put modelled qpf away and actually try and understand what is really happening. You do this every storm . You don’t understand the wx 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Put modelled qpf away and actually try and understand what is really happening. You do this every storm . You don’t understand the wx You should enlighten him on what he should be looking at... what maps are you looking at DIT? SFC or mid-levels? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Just now, powderfreak said: You should enlighten him on what he should be looking at... what maps are you looking at DIT? SFC or mid-levels? I’ve tried before. All he sees is a qpf map and declares that SNE should kiss this one goodbye. For starters, look at a sat loop.. then decide if it’s really going to get tugged east or is that only a figment of models imagination due to convection . Then will there be any mid level banding not being modelled.. etc etc . What are your numbers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Ukie is solidly east from last night as well...can't see the queen maps, but we don't need to...it will likely look like a lot of the ones weve seen already based on the sfc/500 charts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted March 1, 2019 Author Share Posted March 1, 2019 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Ukie is solidly east from last night as well...can't see the queen maps, but we don't need to...it will likely look like a lot of the ones weve seen already based on the sfc/500 charts. Will is the track good for Cape Cod? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Put modelled qpf away and actually try and understand what is really happening. You do this every storm . You don’t understand the wx Like you did on Wednesday??? Lol! Bro, you are a wishcaster like Jimmy. Let’s see the Euro...when it goes east then what?? Ukie already east. Keep stuffing your head in the sand thinking nothing changed like a 12 year old. Advisory for you and me it is, like it or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Ukie is solidly east from last night as well...can't see the queen maps, but we don't need to...it will likely look like a lot of the ones weve seen already based on the sfc/500 charts. Zero doubt that is the general solution. Going to be a another moderate event at best for most....never trust the phase this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: I’ve tried before. All he sees is a qpf map and declares that SNE should kiss this one goodbye. For starters, look at a sat loop.. then decide if it’s really going to get tugged east or is that only a figment of models imagination due to convection . Then will there be any mid level banding not being modelled.. etc etc . What are your numbers? From what I've seen (not all that much on this system) I'd say 3-6" seems plausible for you and eastern CT up to ORH. 6"+ in SE MA. Its possible a weenie ribbon of 6" is back your way with a mid-level band but I agree with the guys if it doesn't close and stays open wave, it'll be Advisory level for an arc from like you to Ray. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Ukie is solidly east from last night as well...can't see the queen maps, but we don't need to...it will likely look like a lot of the ones weve seen already based on the sfc/500 charts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now