USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted March 1, 2019 Author Share Posted March 1, 2019 This is a very powerful and energetic storm developing and heading our way. Does anyone see the storms in Florida Panhandle? Not only does it take heat for storms to develop, it takes energy in the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere. Shortwaves provide that source of energy to produce updrafts and CAPE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Honestly, that's a sweet GFS look, right there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: This is a very powerful and energetic storm developing and heading our way. Does anyone see the storms in Florida Panhandle? Not only does it take heat for storms to develop, it takes energy in the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere. Shortwaves provide that source of energy to produce updrafts and CAPE. Never had convention in FL happened in March. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 James has to be tagged again. The man can’t control himself. 2 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: That’s his old map. He’s not forecasting 1-3 over 3/4 of SNE Sorry, a more amped version like he alluded to Basically 4-8 eastern 1/3 of SNE, as a starting point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: GFS is the same, I don't see any southeast movement everyone says they saw. You need to really look more carefully especially across the interior zones. I'm thinking best chance of warning amounts are in southern and eastern ct, ri and southern and eastern ma mainly south of the pike and 84. Probably 2-5 further west tapering down even further up into the Rt 2 corridor west of ORH county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted March 1, 2019 Author Share Posted March 1, 2019 Ok I see the difference in the runs from 6z to 12z. Its a slight difference, but QPF is not as intense in a 3 hour period, but it is more moderate and more widespread at 12z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Honestly, that's a sweet GFS look, right there. I thought so too but you and I are thinking imby 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted March 1, 2019 Author Share Posted March 1, 2019 I am sorry, I was thinking about my area. But everyone is right, the storm tracked further southeast this run. I will tone my enthusiasm down. Jerry you of all people should know the excitement that comes with storms. Gosh. I wonder sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Ok I see the difference in the runs from 6z to 12z. Its a slight difference, but QPF is not as intense in a 3 hour period, but it is more moderate and more widespread at 12z. Its probably because you were focusing on your own back yard....understandable. Just remember to try and be intially conservative if there is any doubt...you end up looing a lot more credible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Just now, weathafella said: I thought so too but you and I are thinking imby We crown tnite! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 1 minute ago, weathafella said: I thought so too but you and I are thinking imby Awful cut back this way. Good luck, get a 12 burger so pickles can begin to sweat besides just stretching grannie hammies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 GFS also seems to kick it out a little quicker too. Not as much lingering snow post like 19z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Mets.. will this have that sneaky band way west or NW of qpf numbers like we so often see with these? When MPM would see 0.4 and think he was getting 2-4”, but would end up 6-10”. Will this have that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted March 1, 2019 Author Share Posted March 1, 2019 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Its probably because you were focusing on your own back yard....understandable. Just remember to try and be intially conservative if there is any doubt...you end up looing a lot more credible. Thanks Ray. Look I agree, it is not credible being excited for every modeled snow threat. And I will try to focus on the whole region and not just IMBY anymore. It is hard to do. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Sign me up for the 12z GFS. Goal posts narrowing. Looks like at least a moderate storm for all of SNE. Potential for moderate to heavy for eastern and southeastern SNE. Can’t complain...just got to tune out the debbies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 9 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: GFS is the same, I don't see any southeast movement everyone says they saw. You seriously need a timeout or something. It clearly did tone down from the 06z run. You're purely wishcasting at this point and only seeing what you want to see. It gets quite annoying after a while 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 This was a whiff like 2 days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Probably going to see a QPF distribution pretty similar to the 00z Euro at the end of the day I think. Maybe more in srn CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Mets.. will this have that sneaky band way west or NW of qpf numbers like we so often see with these? When MPM would see 0.4 and think he was getting 2-4”, but would end up 6-10”. Will this have that? That will depend on how much the midlevels close off...if you close them off, they will typically shove the fronto pretty far NW....but if they remain more open, then it kind of lingers barely north of the center. This isa hard storm to forecast...pretty big bust potential in all directions. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 3 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: Sign me up for the 12z GFS. Goal posts narrowing. Looks like at least a moderate storm for all of SNE. Potential for moderate to heavy for eastern and southeastern SNE. Can’t complain...just got to tune out the debbies. Well, it sucks for the "Debbie's" back yards. Pretty maddening for areas around here, where everything decent goes north, and now south the area. Even more so for SW CT. I think the mid levels will save me if they close. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 The trend north has stopped. Will it re-correct slightly back in the final runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted March 1, 2019 Author Share Posted March 1, 2019 Just now, ORH_wxman said: That will depend on how much the midlevels close off...if you close them off, they will typically shove the fronto pretty far NW....but if they remain more open, then it kind of lingers barely north of the center. This isa hard storm to forecast...pretty big bust potential in all directions. Will, what did you take from the 24-30 hour period of the mid-level vort maxes? Did it show you may be a faster phase between them? It looked like the GFS wanted to phase the GULF storm and the GRT Lakes shortwave a little faster closer to the New England coastline. Am I seeing things now, or did that really show that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 The kick due east is what bums me out...that would be a killer here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JKEisMan Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Hrefs didn’t quite bite. 2-4 over most of NE with 4-6 SE MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 13 minutes ago, CTValleySnowMan said: You need to really look more carefully especially across the interior zones. I'm thinking best chance of warning amounts are in southern and eastern ct, ri and southern and eastern ma mainly south of the pike and 84. Probably 2-5 further west tapering down even further up into the Rt 2 corridor west of ORH county. NWS has 1-3" here, was 2-4" last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 No mid levels no magic and no warning outside se ct ri se ma (and low end at that ). What a nice surprise if this some how closed em near L.I Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: The kick due east is what bums me out...that would be a killer here. You'll probably do pretty good on Monday and any other events next week. I wouldn't be too bummed. Would love to live in you locale. Prime for nor'easters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Hour 72 is the only one missing on weathermodels.com for the gfs... Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Well, it sucks for the "Debbie's" back yards. Pretty maddening for areas around here, where everything decent goes north, and now south the area. Even more so for SW CT. I think the mid levels will save me if they close. Understandable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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