Baroclinic Zone Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 On 3/1/2019 at 3:03 PM, wxsniss said: 12z RGEM a little toned down from 6z, tugged further east, but still a huge hit Expand Wut? It went from a MECS to a run of the mill snowstorm in a 6hr period. These are night and day different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 On 3/1/2019 at 3:11 PM, weathafella said: Do tell.... Expand Don't have totals yet but I'm eyeballing 4-8" for eastern SNE Question is does this trend continue, and I don't think that's unrealistic... the vorticity is kind of buckshot diffuse, and I think alot of this will come down to nowcasting this evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Keg of Labatt kicked this morning I guess. I'd expect the GFS to cave but it has been really steadfast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 This is falling apart already lol.....here we go 80's style. GFS may come in to save the day...or confirms the falsehood of a major storm for most??? Would not surprise if this goes down the tubes..it's been the tenor after all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 The mesos are 12z are all in pretty decent agreement....advisory snow for interior SNE (less way out into NW MA) and maybe low end warning for SE MA/RI and perhaps parts of S CT. We saw this at 00z last night and then the globals went more robust (sans Euro)....then mesos came back at 06z only to go weaker at 12z again. We'll see what the globals do. The shunt east after it reaches the delmarva is still bothering me some though....not totally buying it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted March 1, 2019 Author Share Posted March 1, 2019 I am not paying attention to this suite, the satellite imagery of the storm shows a strong system, upper support is strong and there is a strong GULF connection with no Atlantic source of moisture yet involved. This will be a big precipitation and convection maker, the surface low will intensify after hitting the ocean, and then ignites as it hits the Gulf Stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 On 3/1/2019 at 3:19 PM, Baroclinic Zone said: Looking like a safe call made by BOX this far, looking at the 12z guidance roll out. Expand Let’s see what the starters do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 On 3/1/2019 at 3:22 PM, Baroclinic Zone said: Wut? It went from a MECS to a run of the mill snowstorm in a 6hr period. These are night and day different. Expand I never took the 6z RGEM run seriously, totally coked out starting point 12z RGEM settled on a 4-8" across most of eastern SNE, still a big hit and consistent with Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 James posts what sounds like inner self talk even a Gulf Stream reference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 On 3/1/2019 at 3:25 PM, WinterWolf said: This is falling apart already lol.....here we go 80's style. GFS may come in to save the day...or confirms the falsehood of a major storm for most??? Would not surprise if this goes down the tubes..it's been the tenor after all. Expand The setup never screamed big snow. You don’t have a strong s/w....strong LLJ etc. it was just this blob that some guidance had that dumps on SNE. It’s sort of s red flag. That’s why I said early this morning the RPM made the most sense to me when a much more reasonable solution . It’s also moving quick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeonPeon Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 On 3/1/2019 at 3:26 PM, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: I am not paying attention to this suite. Expand Confirmation bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 On 3/1/2019 at 3:26 PM, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: I am not paying attention to this suite, the satellite imagery of the storm shows a strong system, upper support is strong and there is a strong GULF connection with no Atlantic source of moisture yet involved. This will be a big precipitation and convection maker, the surface low will intensify after hitting the ocean, and then ignites as it hits the Gulf Stream. Expand Never doubt the gulf stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted March 1, 2019 Author Share Posted March 1, 2019 The amount of precipitation didn't change, there is barely any mixing on Cape Cod where the QPF max is located. We could see 12:1 ratios as the comma head hits the area along with thundersnow potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 RGEM has blown this year though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Yeah 12”+ stuff was nonsense. 4-8” maybe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 On 3/1/2019 at 3:28 PM, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: The amount of precipitation didn't change, there is barely any mixing on Cape Cod where the QPF max is located. We could see 12:1 ratios as the comma head hits the area along with thundersnow potential. Expand Enjoy your slop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted March 1, 2019 Author Share Posted March 1, 2019 On 3/1/2019 at 3:28 PM, weathafella said: RGEM has blown this year though Expand Then we shouldn't use any model correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 On 3/1/2019 at 3:28 PM, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: The amount of precipitation didn't change, there is barely any mixing on Cape Cod where the QPF max is located. We could see 12:1 ratios as the comma head hits the area along with thundersnow potential. Expand I love your enthusiasm but come on now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 On 3/1/2019 at 3:29 PM, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Then we shouldn't use any model correct? Expand Just use your imagination Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Falling apart? It’s a solid 4-8 west and 6-12 east. Nothing has changed unless someone was thinking 12+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 On 3/1/2019 at 3:16 PM, wxsniss said: 12z RGEM definitely not as coked out as 6z, but still a big hit (i.e., warning) for eastern SNE... 12z on right Trend so far at 12z has been to tug this further east... Expand On 3/1/2019 at 3:15 PM, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: RGEM is all snow for Cape Cod even ACK. Provincetown seems to be the place to be in SNE this storm. 12-20" Expand Huh??? Not according to the maps posted above. Looks like a mix and/or rain. Honestly, do you just make these numbers up? 12-20"? And you wonder how anyone can take you seriously Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted March 1, 2019 Author Share Posted March 1, 2019 The warmth in the low-levels comes from where? Northeasterly winds don't scream marine influence this time of the year. Storm track is far enough southeast of ACK the wind direction is northeast to north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 I wouldn't even go advisory for nrn MA and S NH outside of 495. I have little confidence that we hit 4''. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Biggest GFS run.....of the week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted March 1, 2019 Author Share Posted March 1, 2019 On 3/1/2019 at 3:30 PM, BombsAway1288 said: Huh??? Not according to the maps posted above. Looks like a mix and/or rain. Honestly, do you just make these numbers up? 12-20"? And you wonder how anyone can take you seriously Expand It doesn';t make sense the warmth in the lower levels would come that close to the Cape, we have northeasterly to northerly winds as the storm tracks southeast of ACK and the benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 On 3/1/2019 at 3:27 PM, wxsniss said: I never took the 6z RGEM run seriously, totally coked out starting point 12z RGEM settled on a 4-8" across most of eastern SNE, still a big hit and consistent with Euro Expand Still, the 00z run was a huge hit. The 12z run looks paltry compared to them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 On 3/1/2019 at 3:32 PM, DomNH said: I wouldn't even go advisory for nrn MA and S NH outside of 495. I have little confidence that we hit 4''. Expand How saturated is the DGZ...what’s snow growth looking like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 On 3/1/2019 at 3:31 PM, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: The warmth in the low-levels comes from where? Northeasterly winds don't scream marine influence this time of the year. Storm track is far enough southeast of ACK the wind direction is northeast to north. Expand You are surrounded by water. N, NE E, SE, S, SW, W, and NW scream marine influence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 On 3/1/2019 at 3:34 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: You are surrounded by water. N, NE E, SE, S, SW, W, and NW scram marine influence. Expand I think he's saying the same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.