Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,610
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    NH8550
    Newest Member
    NH8550
    Joined

Perhaps a Coastal Storm on March 2nd for SNE????


USCAPEWEATHERAF
 Share

Recommended Posts

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Just do it man. You’ll feel so much better when you draw your map. 

The GFS has overestimated lift the past few events (and even by quite a bit at times), however, I do think it may be more correct with this one. Even the 6z NAM wasn't terrible. I think it had 15 units of omega. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

The GFS has overestimated lift the past few events (and even by quite a bit at times), however, I do think it may be more correct with this one. Even the 6z NAM wasn't terrible. I think it had 15 units of omega. 

Yea and the euro after the zonked solution from 18z is starting to tick to it. You know how she is, never jumps in the sack immediately...you have wine and dine her, make her feel special and welcomed. She has to slowly warm up to the thought that this could be it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea and the euro after the zonked solution from 18z is starting to tick to it. You know she is, never jumps in the sack immediately...you have wine and dine her, make her feel special and welcomed. She has to slowly warm up to the thought that this could be it.

:lol:

I am a bit worried about the gradient though and where that sets up. I could see some parts of the state pulling off like 8-10'' and other parts like 3-4''

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

20 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

WSI. 

This is 30 hours...you can see how it's kind of sliding southeast a bit and not curling up into the shortwave very well. This prevents a huge solution.

 

 

IMG_2556.PNG

Thanks Will

That's actually more consolidated than some of the earlier runs that had a separate vorticity lobe further out (like the on the Meh vs. Good GFS comparison I posted last night) 

As for the upstream indicators of Meh vs. Good...?

It seems on the Meh runs, the energy out of the N Gulf emerges further south and shoots more east after it exits Carolinas, whereas on the good runs it tracks more north and curls into the shortwave on the Good runs. This is around 6z Saturday. And further upstream? Hard to identify a consistent difference. Box AFD was commenting that the N Gulf energy was slightly faster than 0z guidance initialized so they preferred Meh, but that was before all the 6z guidance.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The important energy right now is the Northern US Plains vort max that curls around the Polar Vortex influenced Arctic Jet Stream.  This disturbance can phase into the Gulf Shortwave, we can have a major nor'easter like the GFS shows.  HIRES short range HRRR 12z run shows a powerful storm developing.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...