USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted March 1, 2019 Author Share Posted March 1, 2019 On 3/1/2019 at 4:04 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: I want you to rain like hell, then dry slot. Expand No you don't, remember Blizzard of 2015? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 On 3/1/2019 at 4:04 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: I want you to rain like hell, then dry slot. Expand Lmao...James was in blizzard mode already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 On 3/1/2019 at 4:01 AM, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Really?? Wow. I am sorry it came out like that, but you would understand if your winter was close to as bad as mine. Expand It's the Cape man. It's just not a snowy climate compared to the rest of SNE. Now I'm not saying you're not going to possibly jack on this one but I wouldn't exactly be surprised if it rains at some point on the Cape either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 On 3/1/2019 at 3:46 AM, powderfreak said: This is crazy. Just keeps amping up into SNE. Expand I don't believe that 32°F thermal line is going out to ORH, no matter what the GFS says. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 On 3/1/2019 at 4:06 AM, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: No you don't, remember Blizzard of 2015? Expand Not walking in the door this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 On 3/1/2019 at 4:08 AM, 78Blizzard said: I don't believe that 32°F thermal line is going out to ORH, no matter what the GFS says. Expand Agreed...it's classic GFS at the sfc. 900-925mb is like -5C (other models are even a bit colder)....that's gonna be like 26-27F over a place like ORH with dry snow....might be close to 32F though in SE areas like PYM over to EWB. They'll have to watch very closely for a power-threatening paste bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 On 3/1/2019 at 4:10 AM, ORH_wxman said: Agreed...it's classic GFS at the sfc. 900-925mb is like -5C (other models are even a bit colder)....that's gonna be like 26-27F over a place like ORH with dry snow....might be close to 32F though in SE areas like PYM over to EWB. They'll have to watch very closely for a power-threatening paste bomb. Expand congrats man...hopefully it bombs so the storm sunday helps DC lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 On 3/1/2019 at 4:11 AM, Ji said: congrats man...hopefully it bombs so the storm sunday helps DC lol Expand Wow, a Ji appearance. Good luck on the snow tonight down there... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 GFS def. toned down a bit from 18z...not sure what folks are looking at....not a huge deal, but noticeable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 On 3/1/2019 at 4:10 AM, ORH_wxman said: Agreed...it's classic GFS at the sfc. 900-925mb is like -5C (other models are even a bit colder)....that's gonna be like 26-27F over a place like ORH with dry snow....might be close to 32F though in SE areas like PYM over to EWB. They'll have to watch very closely for a power-threatening paste bomb. Expand Yeah could easily turn into a paster for places like GON/WST/UUU too 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted March 1, 2019 Author Share Posted March 1, 2019 On 3/1/2019 at 4:14 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: GFS def. toned down a bit from 18z...not sure what folks are looking at....not a huge deal, but noticeable. Expand GFS increased QPF what were you looking at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 On 3/1/2019 at 4:06 AM, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: No you don't, remember Blizzard of 2015? Expand I do, remember every other storm? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 On 3/1/2019 at 4:15 AM, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: GFS increased QPF what were you looking at? Expand Wxbell snow map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 On 3/1/2019 at 4:14 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: GFS def. toned down a bit from 18z...not sure what folks are looking at....not a huge deal, but noticeable. Expand I don't agree....the 00z run looks better to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted March 1, 2019 Author Share Posted March 1, 2019 On 3/1/2019 at 4:16 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Wxbell snow map. Expand I thought you didn't like looking at those snow maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 On 3/1/2019 at 4:17 AM, ORH_wxman said: I don't agree....the 00z run looks better to me. Expand Ya I don’t know what he’s looking at either...looks better to me too?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted March 1, 2019 Author Share Posted March 1, 2019 On 3/1/2019 at 4:17 AM, ORH_wxman said: I don't agree....the 00z run looks better to me. Expand I agree Will, although the GFS is not as strong with the surface low as the EURO is, I think there is time still for that to change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeonPeon Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 On 3/1/2019 at 4:14 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: GFS def. toned down a bit from 18z...not sure what folks are looking at....not a huge deal, but noticeable. Expand It looks better organized to me, and not that different in terms of QPF. If anything it's better, surely? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Ray 00z as juicier for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 On 3/1/2019 at 4:16 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Wxbell snow map. Expand Flagged 10 yards for looking at only the clown map before checking other panels....it's prob punishing your area and the CP because it did make the sfc 33-34F in a lot of spots instead of 32F...the snow algorithm will punish that, but it's hogwash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 On 3/1/2019 at 4:17 AM, ORH_wxman said: I don't agree....the 00z run looks better to me. Expand I know what happened....it went south with the second event. Sorry...I looked at cumulative total map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 On 3/1/2019 at 4:19 AM, ORH_wxman said: Flagged 10 yards for looking at only the clown map before checking other panels....it's prob punishing your area and the CP because it did make the sfc 33-34F in a lot of spots instead of 32F...the snow algorithm will punish that, but it's hogwash. Expand I look at them when a need a quick update...its gives an idea of trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Ukie? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 On 3/1/2019 at 4:14 AM, CT Rain said: Yeah could easily turn into a paster for places like GON/WST/UUU too Expand That could be one of the big worries in this one...it could be somewhat like March 7-8 over the interior last year which was a disaster....only this time, it looks like the danger zone is closer to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 On 3/1/2019 at 4:21 AM, ORH_wxman said: That could be one of the big worries in this one...it could be somewhat like March 7-8 over the interior last year which was a disaster....only this time, it looks like the danger zone is closer to the coast. Expand I would love to get paste....hopefully I can at least sniff 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 On 3/1/2019 at 4:14 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: GFS def. toned down a bit from 18z...not sure what folks are looking at....not a huge deal, but noticeable. Expand It looked to be mostly noise, but slightly better than 18z in terms of snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 On 3/1/2019 at 4:19 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: I know what happened....it went south with the second event. Sorry...I looked at cumulative total map Expand Ok that makes a more sense...00z GFS was slightly warmer at the sfc because it was stronger/closer to coast, but I don't think it would be enough to make a huge difference in the clown maps. Yeah Monday's storm nearly whiffed us on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 On 3/1/2019 at 4:20 AM, Baroclinic Zone said: Ukie? Expand Uncle will be back from bar in 20 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 On 3/1/2019 at 4:22 AM, ORH_wxman said: Ok that makes a more sense...00z GFS was slightly warmer at the sfc because it was stronger/closer to coast, but I don't think it would be enough to make a huge difference in the clown maps. Yeah Monday's storm nearly whiffed us on this run. Expand Not a huge fan of the latitudinal gradient showing up...is this getting kicked east? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 On 3/1/2019 at 4:23 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Not a huge fan of the latitudinal gradient showing up...is this getting kicked east? Expand Yeah it tries to get a kick east at the last second....but I wouldn't worry about that yet. You actually may end up on a great deform spot if it works out well, so the kick east could help if it's timed right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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