bluehens Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 I am gonna ride or die with the RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 Going coating to 2" I 95 and 3-6" north and west. Things look warm, feels damp more than anything. I don't see this beating the high snowfall from November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: GFS jumped the surface low 60 miles N. Alot warmer along I95. My area now right on the rain/snow line. The wiggle room is gone. We already booked out flight to Punta don't tell us it's going to be a hurricane out where's the liquor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 3, 2019 Author Share Posted March 3, 2019 1 minute ago, The Iceman said: Going coating to 2" I 95 and 3-6" north and west. Things look warm, feels damp more than anything. I don't see this beating the high snowfall from November. This is a really solid call imho. 3-6" will be the general theme N and W. Decent storm for March. Not a MECS but we take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: GFS jumped the surface low 60 miles N. Alot warmer along I95. My area now right on the rain/snow line. The wiggle room is gone. What's that phrase? You gotta smell the rain to get the heavy snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 3, 2019 Author Share Posted March 3, 2019 Just now, KamuSnow said: What's that phrase? You gotta smell the rain to get the heavy snow? I'm not only smelling it I'll be singing in it possibly lol. New GFS snow depth: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 3, 2019 Author Share Posted March 3, 2019 RGEM is either going to score a major victory against majority of other guidance or eat crow again like the past 2 days' forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: GFS jumped the surface low 60 miles N. Alot warmer along I95. My area now right on the rain/snow line. The wiggle room is gone. Surface low is still east of Cape hatty settle down there it could be the old GFS's terrible warm thermals showing their card finally. Ok i'm done used up my positive for March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I'm not only smelling it I'll be singing in it possibly lol. New GFS snow depth: Don't forget to add an inch or two to that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: RGEM is either going to score a major victory against majority of other guidance or eat crow again like the past 2 days' forecasts. Ralph RGEM was one of only two that got this mornings nothingburger east of I95 right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 Just now, RedSky said: Surface low is still east of Cape hatty settle down there it could be the old GFS's terrible warm thermals showing their card finally. Ok i'm done used up my positive for March. Here ya go, I still have a little left. I mean it is Saturday night and all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 3, 2019 Author Share Posted March 3, 2019 1 minute ago, RedSky said: Ralph RGEM was one of only two that got this mornings nothingburger east of I95 right. Back here it was lousy AF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 3, 2019 Author Share Posted March 3, 2019 4 minutes ago, RedSky said: Surface low is still east of Cape hatty settle down there it could be the old GFS's terrible warm thermals showing their card finally. Ok i'm done used up my positive for March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Still east of Hatty and i'm still drunk lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 3, 2019 Author Share Posted March 3, 2019 3 minutes ago, RedSky said: Still east of Hatty and i'm still drunk lol Hard to tell if the low shifted here or not. I mean there are only 16 lp centers to choose from Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Hard to tell if the low shifted here or not. I mean there are only 16 lp centers to choose from We can't lose, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Hard to tell if the low shifted here or not. I mean there are only 16 lp centers to choose from If it's any one of the ten on the southern semi circle were golden Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 Just now, RedSky said: If it's any one of the ten on the southern semi circle were golden It's a multi headed threat! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 I'm rolling the dice that the CMC will be good, lol. Eta, looks like it tightened up the southern edge too. Still in it though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 9 minutes ago, KamuSnow said: I'm rolling the dice that the CMC will be good, lol. Eta, looks like it tightened up the southern edge too. Still in it though! CMC has 195 in Jersey as the front and battle ground it's like Saving Private Ryan over here my gear is ready. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChasingFlakes Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 Here's some half-baked meteorology. I've struggled to get much over 4 inches from any storm this winter, so I'll say 4" for me, which guidance seems to agree with. Edit: I won't be surprised to see more than this, and I sure won't be suprised to see less. I just think this is a safe bet for northeast chesco. A lot of guidance does have us on par with the NWS watch for 6-8. However, we've seen that a few times this year, only to be let down in the >24 hour time period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 1 hour ago, kickingupastorm said: I don’t understand how Ardmore, PA can be under a WSW for 6 to 8 inches, but Philadelphia, PA - which is only 10 miles away - is under a WSW for only 2 to 4 inches. It makes me very nervous. Can someone help this newb out? Elevation helps, temp. are borderline, and the gradient is pretty tight between NW Phila and the NW burbs. 6 to 8 does seem high though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 21 minutes ago, ChasingFlakes said: Here's some half-baked meteorology. I've struggled to get much over 4 inches from any storm this winter, so I'll say 4" for me, which guidance seems to agree with. Edit: I won't be surprised to see more than this, and I sure won't be suprised to see less. I just think this is a safe bet for northeast chesco. A lot of guidance does have us on par with the NWS watch for 6-8. However, we've seen that a few times this year, only to be let down in the >24 hour time period. I had the thought of beating the Nov. 15th storm (4.6" here) which would be a new high, but I've scaled it back to 3" here, more would be a bonus. I'll be ready with my shovel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 RED ALERT RED ALEET ECM is MUCH colder and south even more so than the RGEM, actually about in line with the RGEM * ok a little better but hey i never looked at the 12z i assumed it was bad https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2019030300/pennsylvania/snow-depth-in/20190304-0500z.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChasingFlakes Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 2 hours ago, RedSky said: RED ALERT RED ALEET ECM is MUCH colder and south even more so than the RGEM, actually about in line with the RGEM * ok a little better but hey i never looked at the 12z i assumed it was bad https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2019030300/pennsylvania/snow-depth-in/20190304-0500z.html Not a huge fan of those maps, its saying I'll have 4inches on the ground at 12z tomorrow when I only have about 2 inches on the ground right now, tops. But I'll take the possibility of 8" putting me in the 12-16 zone on that map. Weather underground's proprietary guidance upped totals to 6". They're normally pretty conservative until its surefire, so that's a good sign. I've noticed their forecasts seem to align the most with the euro. I'm still going with my initial call, I think at this point I would be surprised to see much less than 4 inches but I dont want to set my hopes on much more. As others have said, this seems to be one of those storms that has decent boom or bust potential for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChasingFlakes Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 4 hours ago, KamuSnow said: I had the thought of beating the Nov. 15th storm (4.6" here) which would be a new high, but I've scaled it back to 3" here, more would be a bonus. I'll be ready with my shovel. Didnt even get to shovel on Friday, the sun melted and dried half my driveway, through the clouds, before I got home at 3pm. Only about 10ft that never gets direct sunlight, and my walkway had snow. My snowpile is sad too, it had some staying power from all that sleet in late Feb too. I bet yours is still doing well. Post a picture Monday morning! No way you shoveled that whole thing by hand!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 1 minute ago, ChasingFlakes said: Didnt even get to shovel on Friday, the sun melted and dried half my driveway, through the clouds, before I got home at 3pm. Only about 10ft that never gets direct sunlight, and my walkway had snow. My snowpile is sad too, it had some staying power from all that sleet in late Feb too. I bet yours is still doing well. Post a picture Monday morning! No way you shoveled that whole thing by hand!? Lol, the cat's out of the bag. I have a machine now, used it the second time on Friday. We still shovel a lot, especially if it's less than 2 or 3 inches, and always areas you can't get except by hand. But yeah, those heavy wet March snows last year kind of drove the point home, we sometimes need to work smarter not harder. And we're not getting any younger. So I got a lawn tractor with a loader attachment, heh heh, to help with the piling aspect. It came in real handy with all the dirt work we did last fall too. Plus it cuts the grass real nice. So we're hoping for a plowable snow tonight, of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 3 hours ago, RedSky said: RED ALERT RED ALEET ECM is MUCH colder and south even more so than the RGEM, actually about in line with the RGEM * ok a little better but hey i never looked at the 12z i assumed it was bad https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2019030300/pennsylvania/snow-depth-in/20190304-0500z.html Thanks for the aleet! Good news, the Euro is in its wheelhouse now, I mean 24 hours out it's usually in the money, even this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolHandMike Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 I've got a bad feeling about this. Mount Holly just upped the totals to 6-8". I just don't think it's going to verify... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BBasile Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 6+ works for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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