Ralph Wiggum Posted March 2, 2019 Author Share Posted March 2, 2019 RGEM with a dual low structure. Has a crushing swing thru after dark then another precip max follow behind via a separate wave on the boundary. Surprised there is this much qpf with a strung out look but seems like the GOM is open with some stj feed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Dream Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 43 minutes ago, Stormman96 said: Channel 6. Going 6-10 nw through Lehigh Valley Hmm...guess they're not buying the progressive trends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Dream Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 55 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Thinking tomorrow is a general 3-6" event N and W of I95 with some higher 7" lollis sprinkled in. Will attempt to localize totals later today if/when time permits. The current guidance looks to include most of Bucks and Montgomery in the 3-6" range as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChasingFlakes Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Nam 12z at 38 hours (when I'm supposed to leave for connecticut) Nam 12z 48 hour snowfall total - Ferrier rime corrected Nam 12z 48 hour 10:1 snowfall total Much bigger difference in the 12z Nam between the ferrier and 10:1 clown maps. In the 6z run, the two were more in line with each other. I recall a previous storm in February where the two diverged, I think we busted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 We're locking into a solution IMO. On the 6ABC map, I'd shift the axis straight through Bucks and Montgomery counties. Of course things could shift a smidge back NW but not much. SE PA is going to be the jackpot for this one. 5-8" with iso 10" for many immediately NW of the river. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 RGEM and old GFS give eastern Monmouth real actual snow >1.5" for the first time all winter or should i say spring in a short term forecast. No joke first time I have been in a 4-6" shade inside of 48 hours with these two. That ladies and gentleman is a winter of azz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 HRDPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fields27 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 WATCH'S are now out. Nws going with 4-6 for Berks. Seems reasonable. Judging by how far west the watch's extend, they aren't buying the real progressive models. Sent from my HTC6535LVW using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolHandMike Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Given last night's sleeting, I'm not too optimistic on Sunday night. I think we're gonna be skirting the rain/snow line again as per the globals. I also just don't see a deep enough cold pool out west to be more confident. Some areas to my north and west will certainly cash in but it's looking to me like another concrete sleet job like March 2017. Honestly I hope I'm wrong though because that stuff was a major PITA to deal with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter Wizard Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 I’d go with 4-8” for everyone N and W of route 1 and the Raritan essentially. 2-4” from Sandy Hook to Toms River to Wilmington, DE including the Center City. 1-2” for the C and D Canal to LBI and nothing really below that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Dream Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Euro was ugly for the I-95 crew. Seems to be the outlier at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 5 minutes ago, JMcCaughey42 said: Euro was ugly for the I-95 crew. Seems to be the outlier at the moment. Like i thought overnight the 100 mile jog was an over correction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 17 minutes ago, JMcCaughey42 said: Euro was ugly for the I-95 crew. Seems to be the outlier at the moment. I bet it verifies. I'm going with an inch around here as my forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Dream Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 1 minute ago, The Iceman said: I bet it verifies. I'm going with an inch around here as my forecast Everything else is way better for us, not giving up yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 2, 2019 Author Share Posted March 2, 2019 7 minutes ago, The Iceman said: I bet it verifies. I'm going with an inch around here as my forecast Smart man. Take the models conservatively and side with the lowest total output. I'm telling ya 9 out of 10 times it works. Might need to lower my expectations for here down from 3-6" to 2-4". All if the models start us as rain and it always takes longer than forecast to flip over to snow and start accumulating. Super fast mover as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Winter Storm Watch now issued for Middlesex County from tomorrow afternoon thru Monday morning but for only 2-4" of snow?? per the watch announcement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 1 hour ago, The Iceman said: I bet it verifies. I'm going with an inch around here as my forecast Low placement is excellent for us you realize the biggest problem right? The antecedent air mass is just the smallest amount too mild here in March, a couple weeks earlier in the season this is a high end SECS for both of us. Yeah i had to pull out the if only this was a couple weeks earlier weenie card a personal favorite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 3 minutes ago, RedSky said: Awesome Does it mean a lot of sleet? Because 850s looked ok north of the river. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 4 minutes ago, mattinpa said: Does it mean a lot of sleet? Because 850s looked ok north of the river. Near I95 yes then NW lack of qpf Feel bad for the MA guys in DC getting their hopes up the NAM is giving them a snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 2, 2019 Author Share Posted March 2, 2019 18z hrrr starts as rain for several hours all the way past state college. Air mass and bl are just warm AF. Not sure we overcome this to get the high end totals. This may very well under produce for many....hope I'm wrong. NAMs were also warmer. We waste some time waiting for the changeover to snow. Rarely do we overperform in these situations. If this were January I would feel ok. Being March now, not too much of a confident feeling. Gonna have to go into upstate PA to jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 24 hours ago 1.25" qpf line was backing to Allentown then today there's the problem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fields27 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 18z hrrr starts as rain for several hours all the way past state college. Air mass and bl are just warm AF. Not sure we overcome this to get the high end totals. This may very well under produce for many....hope I'm wrong. NAMs were also warmer. We waste some time waiting for the changeover to snow. Rarely do we overperform in these situations. If this were January I would feel ok. Being March now, not too much of a confident feeling. Gonna have to go into upstate PA to jackpot.Well it is the Hrrr at 20+ hours. There is no other model that shows rain that far back. Sent from my HTC6535LVW using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fields27 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 18z hrrr starts as rain for several hours all the way past state college. Air mass and bl are just warm AF. Not sure we overcome this to get the high end totals. This may very well under produce for many....hope I'm wrong. NAMs were also warmer. We waste some time waiting for the changeover to snow. Rarely do we overperform in these situations. If this were January I would feel ok. Being March now, not too much of a confident feeling. Gonna have to go into upstate PA to jackpot.Well it is the Hrrr at 20+ hours. There is no other model that shows rain that far back. Sent from my HTC6535LVW using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Can't catch a break this winter. Get sucked in then smacked in the face. The models have been horrendous as well for the most part. Going with 1-3" as this nickel and penny winter continues then cold as balls next week... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 2, 2019 Author Share Posted March 2, 2019 31 minutes ago, Fields27 said: Well it is the Hrrr at 20+ hours. There is no other model that shows rain that far back. Sent from my HTC6535LVW using Tapatalk So just ignore the scorching bl that all guidance has to start for several hours? Better hope it is fast and furious to cool the column else alot is going to be wasted on mixing in and around I95 that's all I'm saying. And yeah I know not to buy the hrrr at face value. Still raising an eyebrow tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormman96 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 This place cracks me up. Everyone else is upping totals. I come on here and its all doom an gloom. I dont get it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skonajezski31 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 gonna be a lot of wasted flakes no matter what way you slice it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Meanwhile RGEM like I95 it's performance has been up and down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 18z GFS every model has a different take Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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