RedSky Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 ECM/NAM/CMC rain so GFS cruelly pulled a Lucy on us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormman96 Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Just now, RedSky said: ECM/NAM/CMC rain so GFS cruelly pulled a Lucy on us You do realize not everyone on here lives in coastal nj??? Nam is not rain for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 1, 2019 Author Share Posted March 1, 2019 3 minutes ago, RedSky said: ECM/NAM/CMC rain so GFS cruelly pulled a Lucy on us So the icon, navgem, ukmet are pulling Lucy too? Seems like the solution is likely in between the two camps. NW of I95 SECS/MECS SE of I95 rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: So the icon, navgem, ukmet are pulling Lucy too? Seems like the solution is likely in between the two camps. NW of I95 SECS/MECS SE of I95 rain. The snowfall map gradient on the NAM that I saw in the NYC forum is insane. A little over an inch for the city but SECS or more not far to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 1, 2019 Author Share Posted March 1, 2019 3k NAM is textbook. Heavy hitter NW of I95 with rain SE of there. SE PA is essentially all snow this run give or take a couple miles on either side of the Del River. Gotta smell the rain to get the best snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 3k NAM is much cooler than the 12k NAM. What we're seeing in most modeling, though, is to at first have the shortwave weaker, but it amplifies rather quickly to our SW, thus ushering in the mid level warmth. We want the amplification, it'll bring in the higher ceiling. But it also offers a lower floor with more warmth aloft. The best case scenario for the I-95 is to have the amplification occur just a smidge later in evolution. It would allow for better cyclonic flow into the areas without having to worry about rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Power failed as the nam started rolling, even phone data is runnin at like 2 baud cant get maps well this sucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChasingFlakes Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 4 hours ago, RedSky said: CMC through it's run Morch attack of the white walkers lol My job wants me to go to Connecticut from Chester county at 3am on Monday until thurs. I hope this verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Just now, ChasingFlakes said: My job wants me to go to Connecticut from Chester county at 3am on Monday until thurs. I hope this verifies. So do I, although it's the whole 10 days through the following weekend. Would 6" to 12" do the trick? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 1, 2019 Author Share Posted March 1, 2019 1 minute ago, ChasingFlakes said: My job wants me to go to Connecticut from Chester county at 3am on Monday until thurs. I hope this verifies. That's next week mostly and not just Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 I would spend the storm in qtown but no way the nam beats the ecm this range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChasingFlakes Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: That's next week mostly and not just Sunday. I just was looking at models and realized that, came back to make note of that, but you beat me to it. Plus it's the CMC, so I'll take it with a grain of salt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChasingFlakes Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 46 minutes ago, KamuSnow said: So do I, although it's the whole 10 days through the following weekend. Would 6" to 12" do the trick? 6-12" would be great for sun/mon, they've done commercial travel bans for much less this year on 95. I know there was one in effect when I was driving up to N Vermont on 1/8/19 and I dont know if that amounted to much for SNE or NJ. Also, 3am is the heart of the storm, so I dont see them sending us into a full fledged snowstorm, even if its raining here. Not risking my life to fix some crappy concrete floor... especially after seeing all those pileups in the midwest. . Edit: this should have been combined into one comment. Good thing we dont have a mod! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 18 z euro. 3-5 inches from tonight's snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 NAM's are colder and flatter, but also quicker and with less qpf. Still very good hits, although the quicker evolution won't have as high of a ceiling. 12k NAM 3k NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter Wizard Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Major shift SE on tonight’s Euro, most of the NW Philly suburbs look good for 6-10”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 ECM is 100 miles SE of 12z still plenty of time to keep going that way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter Wizard Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 17 minutes ago, RedSky said: ECM is 100 miles SE of 12z still plenty of time to keep going that way Which also poses the risk of suppression for our area, especially in the far northern and western suburbs. The downside of a system farther SE is that it will be weaker, limiting your max snowfall potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 1 minute ago, Winter Wizard said: Which also poses the risk of suppression for our area, especially in the far northern and western suburbs. The downside of a system farther SE is that it will be weaker, limiting your max snowfall potential. Usually when the ECM jumps that far it's an over correction but it's chaos with these models now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 If these weakening trends continue, this is going to turn into nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 I may be wrong but it seems the storm is moving through faster, thus the lower amounts of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 The 6z CMC paints the I-95 with 10" of snow (at 10:1 ratio) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Really.....1-4” at the cabin. There must be a curse ...or hex....perhaps some type of damnation combination for monmouth and carbon?Ok ok...it’s not all that bad....it is the second morning in a row I am enjoying the first cup of coffee while the ground is covered and snow falling.2.5 at 2100ft.....and counting.... flake by flakeSent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 2, 2019 Author Share Posted March 2, 2019 2 hours ago, Newman said: If these weakening trends continue, this is going to turn into nothing. We knew those crazy amounts of 15"+ on some guidance was never likely to verify. There was and is a high end limit to this system. In a relatively flat progressive flow you arent going to crawl a system up the coast or allow for the Atlantic to be tapped like a conveyor belt of moisture. So I'm not sure this is really a weaker system as you noted or just a reflection of lower qpf due to the fast moving nature of the system. I dont really recall it being a strong low pressure tbh...more a stretched out wave that is sliding by with stj moisture being transported N along the boundary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNOWmizzer Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 6z NAM looks to be a nice hit I-95 and up the LHV. I believe the GFS is to dry with the QPF in our region. NAM likely overdone here but don’t we usually see things trend wetter as we get within 24 hours? GFS did not do well for me with the storm last night. Got 4 when it showed 2. The Sunday event feels like a 4-8 event vs a 2-4 event as the GFS seems to think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 06 euro still looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNOWmizzer Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 57 minutes ago, wkd said: 06 euro still looks good. Looks like this includes an inch or 2 from overnight? Still a nice hit. Euro was the winner for me last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 2, 2019 Author Share Posted March 2, 2019 Thinking tomorrow is a general 3-6" event N and W of I95 with some higher 7" lollis sprinkled in. Will attempt to localize totals later today if/when time permits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockem_sockem_connection Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Non event for us - bring in spring damnit! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormman96 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Channel 6. Going 6-10 nw through Lehigh Valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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