skonajezski31 Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 lets start this with the 3/1 event. models playing catch up to nam/rgem/cmc blend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 06z euro says mt. holly better get those WWA ready... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 mt holly not buying the euro or nam... really don't get it, most guidance has at least an inch across the area. especially chester county... that seems way too low out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Dream Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 46 minutes ago, The Iceman said: mt holly not buying the euro or nam... really don't get it, most guidance has at least an inch across the area. especially chester county... that seems way too low out there. We're due for an overperformer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 1 hour ago, The Iceman said: mt holly not buying the euro or nam... really don't get it, most guidance has at least an inch across the area. especially chester county... that seems way too low out there. I imagine they'll bump it up to reflect latest guidance, which has pretty much all increased an inch or more since the 0z suite, which was likely part of the basis for those maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNOWmizzer Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 Hey All. New member here but long Time lurker. 6z GFS came north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 Per JB says tonight into tomorrow could be biggest PHL event of the year as GFS still not far enough north also goes on with below "was going over PHL/NYC/BOS ( I realize I am spending alot of time on this area, but as far as the snow has gone, its a huge pain, PHL and NYC are 10 inches below normal, Since I think there are 5 threats in the next 12 days ( tonight, then sat night, then Sun night into Mon, then the middle or latter part of next week and finally around day 11 or 12) The numbers are doable, Heck if lucky they can be doubleable ( instead of getting the 10 you get 20 inches in the next 10 days), Go look at March of 1969 for instance in the mid Atlantic. It will take some doing but even after the next 3 I think there are 2 more shots to get this snow to where the forecast had it in that area But tonight is a big deal, Morning rush hours from DC to NYC are likely to be pretty interesting," Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolHandMike Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 1 hour ago, KamuSnow said: I imagine they'll bump it up to reflect latest guidance, which has pretty much all increased an inch or more since the 0z suite, which was likely part of the basis for those maps. Let's hope so. State College has widespread 2-3" just to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 1 hour ago, ChescoPaWxman said: Per JB says tonight into tomorrow could be biggest PHL event of the year as GFS still not far enough north also goes on with below "was going over PHL/NYC/BOS ( I realize I am spending alot of time on this area, but as far as the snow has gone, its a huge pain, PHL and NYC are 10 inches below normal, Since I think there are 5 threats in the next 12 days ( tonight, then sat night, then Sun night into Mon, then the middle or latter part of next week and finally around day 11 or 12) The numbers are doable, Heck if lucky they can be doubleable ( instead of getting the 10 you get 20 inches in the next 10 days), Go look at March of 1969 for instance in the mid Atlantic. It will take some doing but even after the next 3 I think there are 2 more shots to get this snow to where the forecast had it in that area But tonight is a big deal, Morning rush hours from DC to NYC are likely to be pretty interesting," 5 threats LOL, tomorrow biggest of the year LMAO JB on an all time roll Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 With almost all guidance showing 1-2" here in Berks, I'm fairly confident for some minor accumulations tomorrow morning. Philly area could see 2-3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 40 minutes ago, RedSky said: 5 threats LOL, tomorrow biggest of the year LMAO JB on an all time roll He is the best! He will always give hope for snow weenies + he needs a couple of these "5" to pan out to get most places above normal for the season and approach his seasonal forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 18z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 29 minutes ago, Newman said: 18z NAM There is that feature we have seen the entire season just a hair N this time ie the snow hole from N Bucks on East to Redsky in Monmouth. Assuming that will nudge South in reality to where we have seen all year and I will record my usual .5"-1" ish type while I'm surrounded N S and W with 3"+ totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bosswx Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 Hoping for a surprise when I wake up maybe 2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 WWA lofted for the southern 1/3rd of the CWA - Quote Winter Weather Advisory URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 250 PM EST Thu Feb 28 2019 NJZ016>019-021-PAZ070-071-101-102-104-106-010800- /O.NEW.KPHI.WW.Y.0013.190301T0600Z-190301T1500Z/ Salem-Gloucester-Camden-Northwestern Burlington-Cumberland- Delaware-Philadelphia-Western Chester-Eastern Chester- Eastern Montgomery-Lower Bucks- Including the cities of Pennsville, Glassboro, Camden, Cherry Hill, Moorestown, Mount Holly, Millville, Media, Philadelphia, Honey Brook, Oxford, West Chester, Kennett Square, Norristown, Lansdale, Morrisville, and Doylestown 250 PM EST Thu Feb 28 2019 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches expected. * WHERE...Portions of southern New Jersey and southeast Pennsylvania. * WHEN...Snow will begin overnight after midnight from west to east and continue through early Friday morning before diminishing to light rain or patchy freezing drizzle by late morning. The heaviest snow is expected from roughly 4 AM to 8 AM * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions which could create hazardous travel. The hazardous conditions will impact the morning commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will cause primarily travel difficulties. Expect snow covered roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. && $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 Based on the 18z suite so far, I'll take the NAMs for tonight and Friday night, and the ICON for Sunday night, please . Can we mix and match? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 Wow the Saturday coastal came out of nowhere. GFS gives SNE well over 6". I think parts of our area could see some snow from that as well, would lean towards the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 5 hours ago, ChescoPaWxman said: Per JB says tonight into tomorrow could be biggest PHL event of the year as GFS still not far enough north The bar is set rather low. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 Someone in far S PA (Chesco Delco etc) is going to be in for a surprise tomorrow AM. Not a massive snowfall but a period of heavy squallish snow falling during the busiest travel time along the most populated/congested area in the state spells a traffic nightmare in my book. And the local news is just meh. If the RGEM and other mesos verify with that West to East swath of heavier snows via the deathband, lots of average Joe's that commute to work early will be pissy tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 52 minutes ago, Newman said: Wow the Saturday coastal came out of nowhere. GFS gives SNE well over 6". I think parts of our area could see some snow from that as well, would lean towards the coast. Telling ya March is the new January. Threat after threat lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 Mesos have an uber death band in the early morning just prior to or during rush hour (4-8am). Seeing rates on some guidance of 2"/hr under the best lift area which is setting up just N of the Mason dixon line. Someone is going to be surprised tomorrow and some 6-7" totals in spots would not surprise me at all. Kamu that snow pile should benefit nicely. Canadian guidance is on fire tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skonajezski31 Posted March 1, 2019 Author Share Posted March 1, 2019 rgem has been showing this for past 36 hours however bouncing it around 18z sets up along mason dixon line and watching the current radar that seems about right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Meanwhile the hrrr is a c-1" type. One of these are going to bust badly in the short range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skonajezski31 Posted March 1, 2019 Author Share Posted March 1, 2019 yeah that and the rap have not been all that impressed but when i see this its impresses me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skonajezski31 Posted March 1, 2019 Author Share Posted March 1, 2019 im reviewing current radar down in WV and the precip output by hrdps and its almost spot on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bosswx Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Temp already down to 26.2. I wonder if I will get anything from the coastal Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 40 minutes ago, skonajezski31 said: im reviewing current radar down in WV and the precip output by hrdps and its almost spot on Hrrr is slowly increasing snowfall amounts now past 4 runs. Canadians are likely too extreme hrrr still a bit low. Somewhere in the middle most likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 I dunno about this hrrr model let alone the extended 0z hrrr. Is all snow for tomorrow PM while others are mostly rainers. What a tricky 3 days stretch of forecasting. Would not want to be a pro forecaster right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 NAM is quite the wall of snow tomorrow morning. Drops a quick 2-4" during the AM rush. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 12k NAM is quite the day tomorrow. 'Surprise' death band for Smsomeone in extreme Southern PA in the AM then a marginal rain to accumulating heavy snow tomorrow night rom a bombing coastal in eastern PA. Totals for both events: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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