yoda Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 00z RGEM crushes C MD to DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 Very much liking what I’m seeing for central Maryland west and nw of Baltimore. Consistent with 2-4” on tonight’s models for Howard county and northern MoCo rgem is likely overdone per usual. I typically go with 2/3 of what it spits out. NAM RGEM and euro all seem to be pointing to central md getting a decent event. DC is in and out of jack, but I assume we’ll have a better idea by 12z tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 6 minutes ago, yoda said: 00z RGEM crushes C MD to DC Whoa! 10:1 ratios? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 2 minutes ago, Scraff said: Whoa! 10:1 ratios? Kuchera is actually a tad higher FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 7 minutes ago, yoda said: 00z RGEM crushes C MD to DC If this event was happening in the middle of Jan it would be a non event. Late season climo helps juice things up. That said... rgem is prob too aggressive but the NAMs work fine for my yard. I'd really like to break 30" this season, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 Models continuing the trend this winter to juice up as we approach an event. I dont ever remember a winter where that has happened so consistently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 Holy gfs. Coming around to the RGEM/Nam look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 Gfs is 2 to 4 across the area. Looks like pretty good consensus at this point. Edit - Ninj. By md snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mordecai Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 2 minutes ago, Mordecai said: Juice this thing up a little bit more and someone could get a warning level snowfall lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 Hey everyone. Been insanely busy with my radar certification. Been an absolute blast, but my god is it a lot to take in. These last two days going to wear me out. Anywho. Finally took the chance to look into this event. Looks like a good consensus building overall. One thing I’ve noticed is a slightly stronger vort moving into the area with a better diffluent signature leading into the start. Could see some solid banding structures during the storm height with 1”/hr rates plausible. 2-4” is looking real solid, but 4-6” is at play with the favored area north of I-70. Wouldn’t rule out the areas south of I-70 that climatologically have favor. That’s my guess for now. Hope I see some cool pictures on Friday. This is about the height of my input for the storm. Good luck, and hope to have a lot more to talk about with what’s down the pipe. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kleimax Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 All hail king NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 10 minutes ago, Kleimax said: All hail king NAM The new euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 NE MD pummeled on the HerpDerps!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 11 minutes ago, jaydreb said: NE MD pummeled on the HerpDerps!! It did pretty well last time around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 00z run is actually a lil better for DC and N VA compared to 18z... the HRDPS that is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 00z UKIE looks almost exactly like the 00z RGEM if you believe the snowmap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 3 hours ago, MillvilleWx said: Hey everyone. Been insanely busy with my radar certification. Been an absolute blast, but my god is it a lot to take in. These last two days going to wear me out. Anywho. Finally took the chance to look into this event. Looks like a good consensus building overall. One thing I’ve noticed is a slightly stronger vort moving into the area with a better diffluent signature leading into the start. Could see some solid banding structures during the storm height with 1”/hr rates plausible. 2-4” is looking real solid, but 4-6” is at play with the favored area north of I-70. Wouldn’t rule out the areas south of I-70 that climatologically have favor. That’s my guess for now. Hope I see some cool pictures on Friday. This is about the height of my input for the storm. Good luck, and hope to have a lot more to talk about with what’s down the pipe. . I hope everyone gets plenty of snow with this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
attml Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 406 AM EST Thu Feb 28 2019 DCZ001-MDZ004>006-011-013-014-503>508-VAZ052>054-501-505-506- 281700- District of Columbia-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore- Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel- Northwest Montgomery-Central and Southeast Montgomery- Northwest Howard-Central and Southeast Howard-Northwest Harford- Southeast Harford-Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax- Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Northern Fauquier- Western Loudoun-Eastern Loudoun- Including the cities of Washington, Frederick, Ballenger Creek, Eldersburg, Westminster, Reisterstown, Cockeysville, Baltimore, Bowie, Suitland-Silver Hill, Clinton, College Park, Greenbelt, Laurel, Camp Springs, Glen Burnie, Annapolis, Severn, South Gate, Severna Park, Arnold, Odenton, Germantown, Damascus, Bethesda, Rockville, Gaithersburg, Silver Spring, Lisbon, Columbia, Ellicott City, Jarrettsville, Aberdeen, Dale City, Manassas, Woodbridge, Lake Ridge, Montclair, Reston, Herndon, Annandale, Centreville, Chantilly, McLean, Franconia, Arlington, Alexandria, Falls Church, Warrenton, Purcellville, Leesburg, Ashburn, and Sterling 406 AM EST Thu Feb 28 2019 ...SNOW EXPECTED TONIGHT AND INTO THE FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE FOR THE BALTIMORE AND WASHINGTON METROPOLITAN AREAS... Snow will develop tonight and continue into early Friday morning before tapering off after sunrise. The snow will mix with sleet early Friday morning. Accumulations are forecast to range from 1 to 2 inches along the I-66 corridor, to 2 to 4 inches north of Washington DC. The highest amounts will likely occur across northern Loudon, Montgomery, and Frederick Counties. The greatest threat for impact from this snowfall during the Friday morning rush hour will be north of the Capital Beltway Interstate 495. If you plan on commuting Friday morning, be aware of the potential for travel disruptions. Plan ahead by allowing for extra travel time, and consider using public transportation and telework options. Stay tuned for future updates on this winter weather event, and the potential for Winter Weather Advisories to be issued later today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 Overnight Euro and EPS have shifted north with the strip of max snowfall as well as juiced up somewhat. Euro places the max strip just north of the PA line but now also shows a weaker secondary max strip developing just west of Balt and running east. Kuchera is below and runs to 2pm. We do see more snow afterwards into Sat, especially the northern tier but that is more in response to the developing coastal. Little late in the game for the EPS but it does favor the max strip (2 1/2") setting up farther south from the PA line down through Balt. The control though favors the op run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 The latest 12K NAM has cut back on the snow totals from its previous run through 2 pm Friday. Shows two maxes setting up with one running just south of DC and the other on the PA line. Maxes are generally 3-4 inches with some pockets of 4+ embedded. Between these two maxes (Balt/DC) we are seeing 1 1/2 to 2 1/2 inches. These are snowfall totals given at 10:1. Ground truth maps (+ snow depth) are uninspiring to say the least with 1" showing only on the PA line. Don't particularly like these maps because I find they can be just as misleading as the 10:1. Ground truth would probably between these two and I would favor more so towards the 10-1 especially for the northern tier. 3k has cut back as well and is generally showing 1 1/2 to 3 inches with some heavier pockets from Dc north to the PA line. What is interesting to note in that the NAMs are now starting to pick up on some coastal influences late Friday into Saturday morning in particular the 12K. Still we are outside the 48 hr envelop I normally draw the line before I take them too seriously. That said, I still think that period of time has potential to surprise. eta: 06Z GFS sends the max strip DC/Balt. We are generally talking 3-5" on the 10:1 through the whole region. Pos depth chart has a more realistic depiction then the on the NAMs with roughly 2 1/2 to 3 1/2 inches for the DC/Balt corridor. GFS is also getting somewhat aggressive with coastal influences for Friday night/early Sat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 6 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: The latest 12K NAM has cut back on the snow totals from its previous run through 2 pm Friday. Shows two maxes setting up with one running just south of DC and the other on the PA line. Maxes are generally 3-4 inches with some pockets of 4+ embedded. Between these two maxes (Balt/DC) we are seeing 1 1/2 to 2 1/2 inches. These are snowfall totals given at 10:1. Ground truth maps (+ snow depth) are uninspiring to say the least with 1" showing only on the PA line. Don't particularly like these maps because I find they can be just as misleading as the 10:1. Ground truth would probably between these two and I would favor more so towards the 10-1 especially for the northern tier. 3k has cut back as well and is generally showing 1 1/2 to 3 inches with some heavier pockets from Dc north to the PA line. What is interesting to note in that the NAMs are now starting to pick up on some coastal influences late Friday into Saturday morning in particular the 12K. Still we are outside the 48 hr envelop I normally draw the line before I take them too seriously. That said, I still think that period of time has potential to surprise. It would be helpful if whatever coastal forms Friday heads into the 50/50 position to lower heights behind it for Sunday/Monday. As there is no hp damming to the north. Without that the cities are looking at more rain than snow. NW tier does ok. My 2 cents. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 How did the NAM become the least aggressive model now and the GfS one of the most aggressive lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 Ava likes the potential for 3+ in the northern tier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 Latest NAMs look warmer and less juiced up, FWIW. Looks more like the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 1 minute ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said: How did the NAM become the least aggressive model now and the GfS one of the most aggressive lol. Didn't that happen with the last storm we had, too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 16 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Didn't that happen with the last storm we had, too? gfs had like 6+ for all of nova for several days out. ended up with 2" snow and 1" sleet, definitely was too aggressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 rgem looks pretty sweet, ill my 2-3" and run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 Feeling very good about this event. Tomorrow morning will be looking very wintry for many of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 All hail the new NAM, the RGEM. What a beatdown that would be. That would be arguably my best storm of the winter. Too bad it is fake news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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