aldie 22 Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 NAM certainly has held steady no doubt...seems to have ticked a bit colder as well during the event....wonder if that's a function of the heavier precip it's advertising? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 I'd sacrifice half of my sleep to see that 3K NAM deathband. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 Look at Ferrier and snow depth on 3k, its like 1-2". I think much of what is showing is sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 The positive snow depth map only showing 1” might be a red flag but hey if you had to make a forecast based off the NAMs you would certainly have to go 1-3” for most areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 I’ll enjoy my sleet showers. Got the curse of the weenie down here. As well as my personal typical snow shield. Jokes aside, accumulating sleet would be interesting. I still think it’s mostly a myth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 can we stop saying things like the NAM3 has 5" and crap that like? The TT 10:1 map has 5". The model does not. If you want to know what the actual model is doing, look at the snow depth change or Ferrier maps. They're much lower, indicating significant riming of the snow, consistent with the forecast soundings which show a possible warm layer around 800. It's marginal with that warm nose, so those depth and Ferrier maps may end up too light, but the model does not have 5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 Just now, mdhokie said: Look at Ferrier and snow depth on 3k, its like 1-2". I think much of what is showing is sleet. Soundings are subfreezing throughout the column. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 11 minutes ago, high risk said: can we stop saying things like the NAM3 has 5" and crap that like? The TT 10:1 map has 5". The model does not. If you want to know what the actual model is doing, look at the snow depth change or Ferrier maps. They're much lower, indicating significant riming of the snow, consistent with the forecast soundings which show a possible warm layer around 800. It's marginal with that warm nose, so those depth and Ferrier maps may end up too light, but the model does not have 5". what?! snowmaps dont lie! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 ICON favors DC for 1-3”. Not much for Baltimore-north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 RGEM is another solid run for the northern tier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 We're all north of some models, south of others. Not a bad place to be I supposed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 Very encouraging trends over the last 2 model cycles for a moderate advisory level event for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 I like the ICON. I'll allow it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 1 hour ago, high risk said: nice event for the northern tier So what does it make me when its a good event for the "northern tier" but the max is still south of me? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: So what does it make me when its a good event for the "northern tier" but the max is still south of me? lol LOL. It was too much and too confusing for me to write "for the southern half of the northern tier." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 2 minutes ago, high risk said: LOL. It was too much and too confusing for me to write "for the southern half of the northern tier." It's like Peter Schickele with "PDQ Bach" talking about the University of Southern North Dakota. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 I'd like to see Wes on board for this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 GFS looks ok for about 1” for a lot of us. Nothing really near PA line though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mordecai Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 12z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 GFS is ok...probably an inch or so Ninja'd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: So what does it make me when its a good event for the "northern tier" but the max is still south of me? lol I'm currently seeing someone who lives in Westminster...needless to say she will be staying at my place for this event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 21 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: So what does it make me when its a good event for the "northern tier" but the max is still south of me? lol You will not like the GFS, I sure don't. I am going with the NAMs I hope they have a better handle than the goofy GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 47 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said: ICON favors DC for 1-3”. Not much for Baltimore-north In years past I would joke right now about being fringed.... I don't really feel like joking about that right now. Maybe mother nature is paying me back for all those years of making fun of that prospect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 21 minutes ago, high risk said: LOL. It was too much and too confusing for me to write "for the southern half of the northern tier." I was just poking fun lol. Guidance wont nail the exact placement of that tiny band from this range yet plus this is really a function of just how meso scale this "storm" really is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 16 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: I'm currently seeing someone who lives in Westminster...needless to say she will be staying at my place for this event I can't remember any season where there was such a consistent exact sharp cutoff in the max snowfall like this. Even in 2010 when MD was the bullseye there were storms throughout the year that veered from that to the north and south. There wasn't the same general cutoff for snowfall from every event. I have been inside the northern edge of the best stuff a few times... and just outside it most of the time, but its been somewhere right in this same area with every snowfall event this winter that impacted the mid atlantic. Really odd. Probably just a fluke thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: In years past I would joke right now about being fringed.... I don't really feel like joking about that right now. Maybe mother nature is paying me back for all those years of making fun of that prospect. Lol. I kid you not that just this morning I was thinking to myself how this guy was always paranoid about getting fringed and we would end up getting nailed. Now we're getting punished. Unbelievable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I can't remember any season where there was such a consistent exact sharp cutoff in the max snowfall like this. Even in 2010 when MD was the bullseye there were storms throughout the year that veered from that to the north and south. There wasn't the same general cutoff for snowfall from every event. I have been inside the northern edge of the best stuff a few times... and just outside it most of the time, but its been somewhere right in this same area with every snowfall event this winter that impacted the mid atlantic. Really odd. Probably just a fluke thing. I can relate to this as well for MBY. It is amazing repetition this winter with the gradient location and yeah I guess its a fluke thing , but still annoying amongst other things this winter season. Maybe we can buy 50 miles in 36 hours. But like you said, this is a tiny feature, so good luck to the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 Don’t think it was mentioned yet but 12z hrdps has a general 1-3” dc north. Some 4” lolies as you get toward the pa/md line. Early on it seems the mesos are favoring dc north for accumulating snow while the globals are favoring Baltimore south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 1 hour ago, HighStakes said: Lol. I kid you not that just this morning I was thinking to myself how this guy was always paranoid about getting fringed and we would end up getting nailed. Now we're getting punished. Unbelievable. thanks @psuhoffman ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 Nice improvement on the euro. Much better areawide precip shield....Looks like most of the mesos that target an E/W line right through DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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