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March 1, 2019 Light Snow Chance


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6 minutes ago, usedtobe said:

You need to root for mesoscale banding like the NAM has. 

Yeah the overall look has really degraded since that 12z euro run yesterday.  Not looking to healthy on much of anything other than the Nam at this point and we know how that usually works out.

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44 minutes ago, Jandurin said:

I wasn't pissy and you couldn't say that about me because that's not at all what I was saying. All I said is I don't remember a single storm getting "drier" as it came in, whether it hit us or not.

Fin. Final. Stop putting words into my mouth.

You just put the words in your own mouth....  the very last storm trended dryer, A LOT DRYER, than guidance from 2-3 days out.  The consensus across guidance at about 72 hours out was 1.25-1.75 qpf across the area.  That trended down as we got closer but even from 24 hours out the consensus was still 1-1.5 qpf.  The final numbers were 

DCA: .73

BWI: .74

IAD: .95

It was dryer than expected.  And when people try to point that out you, for some reason, are arguing with that or dismissing it when its a fact.   I have no interest in fighting over a chance at 1-2" of snow.  But facts are facts... the very last storm we had trended dryer than expected.  I am NOT saying that has absolutely any bearing on our chances for snow in the future just defending facts.  

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20 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

Euro did the same thing with that weekend event that slid south into VA 2 weeks ago. It started the way with a nice hit, then completely abandoned ship. Weird to see the UK so much different in its depiction. 

Euro and GFS combo I usually find works well. They both agree on a relatively weak, sheared out system. Gotta go that route. Friday’s dead for now. Let’s pay attention to Monday 

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Remember that the NCEP models tally sleet along with the snow, so when you see those generous snow maps, they're because TT is applying a 10:1 ratio to the liquid equivalent.    The positive snow depth change is also plotted there, and it accounts for poor ratios and overall difficulty in accumulating - it's way less snowy for this case (consistent with the sleet).

 

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