LP08 Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 Gfs has flurries/sprinkles. Not much excitement in this threat at the time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 3 minutes ago, LP08 said: Gfs has flurries/sprinkles. Not much excitement in this threat at the time You need to root for mesoscale banding like the NAM has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 6 minutes ago, usedtobe said: You need to root for mesoscale banding like the NAM has. Yeah the overall look has really degraded since that 12z euro run yesterday. Not looking to healthy on much of anything other than the Nam at this point and we know how that usually works out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 44 minutes ago, Jandurin said: I wasn't pissy and you couldn't say that about me because that's not at all what I was saying. All I said is I don't remember a single storm getting "drier" as it came in, whether it hit us or not. Fin. Final. Stop putting words into my mouth. You just put the words in your own mouth.... the very last storm trended dryer, A LOT DRYER, than guidance from 2-3 days out. The consensus across guidance at about 72 hours out was 1.25-1.75 qpf across the area. That trended down as we got closer but even from 24 hours out the consensus was still 1-1.5 qpf. The final numbers were DCA: .73 BWI: .74 IAD: .95 It was dryer than expected. And when people try to point that out you, for some reason, are arguing with that or dismissing it when its a fact. I have no interest in fighting over a chance at 1-2" of snow. But facts are facts... the very last storm we had trended dryer than expected. I am NOT saying that has absolutely any bearing on our chances for snow in the future just defending facts. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 lol at the 12z UKMET... upper 20s to near 30 temps at 72, 850 0c line down near EZF... bullseyes DCA with 0.30-0.40 QPF 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 Euro = next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 19 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Euro = next Nothing on the Euro for Friday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 Euro did the same thing with that weekend event that slid south into VA 2 weeks ago. It started the way with a nice hit, then completely abandoned ship. Weird to see the UK so much different in its depiction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 20 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: Euro did the same thing with that weekend event that slid south into VA 2 weeks ago. It started the way with a nice hit, then completely abandoned ship. Weird to see the UK so much different in its depiction. Euro and GFS combo I usually find works well. They both agree on a relatively weak, sheared out system. Gotta go that route. Friday’s dead for now. Let’s pay attention to Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 way to go @WxUSAF you killed the threat 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 Just now, mappy said: way to go @WxUSAF you killed the threat Same thing happened to his PD weekend storm thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 2 minutes ago, MDstorm said: Same thing happened to his PD weekend storm thread. @stormtracker may need to reconsider his green tag status. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 26, 2019 Author Share Posted February 26, 2019 34 minutes ago, mappy said: way to go @WxUSAF you killed the threat Stone cold assassin 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Stone cold assassin NAM still says there's a chance... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 Looks like a mini NAMing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 Just now, stormtracker said: Looks like a mini NAMing. It went wetter and norther right after the euro lost it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 Not all of this is snow DC south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 All hail King NAM! Eta: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 Text output is 95% sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 Just now, Weather Will said: Not all of this is snow DC south. Sorry I thought you could post non EURO maps from Weather Bell, but it appears not on second read. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said: Text output is 95% sleet text dosent fall from the sky 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 3 minutes ago, Scraff said: All hail King NAM! Eta: Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 Icon is north and slightly wetter. All snow Baltimore north. Mixing issues south most likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 8 minutes ago, Ji said: text dosent fall from the sky Sure it does....in tiny little pl 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 So I’m taking a Ukie/NAM blend. The other models are focusing on +PNA when the sun angle argues for -EPO. There is less breeze today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 Remember that the NCEP models tally sleet along with the snow, so when you see those generous snow maps, they're because TT is applying a 10:1 ratio to the liquid equivalent. The positive snow depth change is also plotted there, and it accounts for poor ratios and overall difficulty in accumulating - it's way less snowy for this case (consistent with the sleet). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 @high risk that will definitely apply in this scenario, especially the further south you go. Judging by the NAM depiction verbatim, it would be a decent snow in N MD with mixing in between and rain south of 95 over to Andrews. 3km does look pretty solid at the end of its 18z run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 I very rarely have seen the Euro take something away at this range and then give it back. Hopefully, this will be one of those times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 Looks like a brief period of light snow DC south on the 18z GFS... 18z FV3 a lil better with some light snow for all. Neither have any real accumulations... although FV3 has some areas around an inch 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 Feels like a Tuesday to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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