March 2019 Discussion

[hawkeye_wx]

The first low pressure, on Saturday, will track too far south to bring much warmth up here.  However, the big low next Wednesday could really pull the warm air north.  Models have been suggesting 50s possible.  Tonight's euro has low 60s up to I-80 from Omaha to QC.  Add to that some rain, 40s dews, and wind, and our remaining several inches of snowpack would get zapped very quickly.

[michsnowfreak]

6 hours ago, beavis1729 said:

Well, of course I respect all of your opinions...but I guess I see things from a different point of view. 

First, Winter is an absolute thing, not relative to climo. Even if Atlanta has a record snowy winter, it would still get an F, because there isn’t a persistent wintry appeal throughout DJF. You may say my expectations are too high, but it’s not about that. I fully admit Chicago will never get an A for a winter...because I agree with Chicago storm’s point that we always get thaws. That just proves my point. 

For this season, we had no white Christmas...and during the first 6 weeks of DJF, winter was nonexistent. Because of that, the starting point is an F. Then the November storm and the late January arctic outbreak could have (generously) brought it up to a C...but then the quick thaw and snowmelt after both of these events just killed it. So, split the difference with a D. 

The ice storm doesn’t contribute much either way. Sure, it was interesting...but 2 days later, you never knew it happened. 

True wintry places focus on SDDs, peak snow cover date, # of days with 20”+ depth, etc. Chicago never entertains these discussions at all. 

If Chicago truly got an A for this winter, does Rhinelander get an A+++? Do Bo and Will get an A++++++++++++++? Think about that...

I can safely say you are probably alone with the way you look at things lol. Using examples ranging from Atlanta to the snowiest parts of the upper peninsula is not helping the cause lol. This is like telling a 5 year old they have to take a college exam and being frustrated that they fail it every time.  You are lucky enough to experience more Winter than a HUGE majority of the world population, but because you are not in the top 99 or 100 percentile you have basically admitted you will never be satisfied with Winter.

[michsnowfreak]

As for grading the Winter, I have to think about it some. I really want to see if we get a late season snowstorm or not before I give a final grade. However my grade will land somewhere in the C range. My snow fall season to date is 30.1", which means I would need another foot to get to normal. The insane lack of snow from December through mid January, including a green Christmas, is a huge no no. It's also been frustrating to see the best snows hit other parts of the sub instead of my own. The fact that my area has been lucky numerous years lately still does not give THIS year a pass lol. And of course we did have several maddening thaws that decided to pop along just long enough to melt all our most of the snow and then it got cold again. Those are definite cons. However there have been some pros too. I can never recall so much snow falling in November. It seemed to be snowing constantly. The last half of January was quite exciting with several nice snow storms and a historic cold snap. I saw 3 ice storms this Winter, in addition to 1 ice storm in April last year which means I had 4 ice storms in the span of one year whereas previous to that it had been years since I had seen 1. Im not actually a huge fan of ice storms but it's a definite Winter occurrence that should certainly count towards Winter excitement lol.  The Winter also saw several nice cold snaps.  Obviously the Arctic blast at the end of January was the king of cold snaps. It was so cold that even beavis was able to admit to a 2 day cold snap. But besides that there were several other decent cold shots throughout the season. I enjoy the cold and think it's invigorating.

[cyclone77]

5 hours ago, hawkeye_wx said:

The first low pressure, on Saturday, will track too far south to bring much warmth up here.  However, the big low next Wednesday could really pull the warm air north.  Models have been suggesting 50s possible.  Tonight's euro has low 60s up to I-80 from Omaha to QC.  Add to that some rain, 40s dews, and wind, and our remaining several inches of snowpack would get zapped very quickly.

We're getting to the point in the season where we could see some nice over-performing of temps if we can get the right setup.  Wouldn't be surprised to see 70+ try to sneak in if we can get some sun.

[beavis1729]

4 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

I can safely say you are probably alone with the way you look at things lol. Using examples ranging from Atlanta to the snowiest parts of the upper peninsula is not helping the cause lol. This is like telling a 5 year old they have to take a college exam and being frustrated that they fail it every time.  You are lucky enough to experience more Winter than a HUGE majority of the world population, but because you are not in the top 99 or 100 percentile you have basically admitted you will never be satisfied with Winter.

Ha...and yes, I agree. 

When grading winter, it's not about what I or anyone else is "satisfied with".  That's not the point.  

Even so...some winters do get a good grade in Chicago.  For example, I would give 1978-79 an A-, given the 90" of snow at MDW (and closer to 100" in NE IL near the WI border), with constant snow cover throughout DJF.  I would give 2013-14 a B-...which is actually a pretty good grade compared to the average Chicago winter grade of D or D-.  Even though everyone praises 2013-14 like crazy, the downside was that December was fairly mild (10 days with high temps above 35, including 3 days of 40+ temps in the last week of the month), with no White Christmas.  December is the month that you really need to perform in order to have a good winter, because it lays the base, it goes with the holidays, and daylight is shortest.  And on top of that, after the arctic outbreak in early January 2014, there were 4 consecutive days with highs of 40+...which melted most/all of the snow cover.  Of course this is somewhat typical in Chicago...but you can't give winter a phenomenal grade when these things occur.  It's just reality. Sure, it was a good winter by Chicago standards...but that doesn't really mean anything. And I know it was a bit better in Detroit.

None of this is meant to be obnoxious or start an argument...but winter is what it is.  We just have to accept that Chicago and Detroit (and most places in the lower 48 south of 45N) don't have solid winters.  It's not a big deal or anything...but that's the situation.  I'm not sure why people deny this, or struggle with this concept.  It's like when people who enjoy severe weather get frustrated when there is a prolonged issue of capping or poor timing, etc. during the prime time of April-June.  Of course, some of this is climo...but it's still frustrating when the general public spouts off how much severe weather the U.S. sees...but then sometimes it doesn't happen like it "should". 

Of course I enjoy and appreciate the wintry periods and big snowstorms like anyone else...and that's great.  But these are only wintry events, as opposed to the season and mood of winter...which are not the same thing. Places with real winter have the old-fashioned weather observer in their 80s telling tales about their hand-written records going back to 1965 related to lake freeze-up date, break-up date, etc...and comparing it to the prior observer's notes from the 1910s...showing how the seasons ebb and flow with each other.  And 90+% of years have snow cover starting in mid-Dec.  No worrying about melting of the snow or lakes/ponds.  And in the unusual year where you don't have a White Christmas, it's the talk of the town.  You know, David Ludlum and Pony Express and Currier & Ives stuff.  But none of that happens in our area.   

Edit: just saw the winter grade thread...will post future comments there.  I know, it's exhausting...but when you're a winter weenie, that's life. When 9 out of the 12 months aren't winter, you hope that the other 3 months deliver.  And now we wait until next November.

[illinois]

I would think the 12z gfs is looking pretty concerning for flood issues across Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin. Pushes the rain snow line north toward Canada with a wrapped up cutter. Lots could change, but that does look great for next Wednesday. 

[buckeye]

22 hours ago, beavis1729 said:

To each his own of course...but man, these are very low expectations! Winter was nowhere to be found for half of DJF.

If we are supposed to be happy with one warning criteria event in a winter and a 2-day cold snap where temps rebound to 50F two days later, that’s pretty sad for all of us.

In your backyard, I would give this winter a D+. In my backyard, a D. Sure, there were some good periods, but you can’t lose 50% of winter and give it a favorable grade.

If we didn’t have the huge thaw after the cold snap, the grades would be C+ and C respectively.

I'm reminded of this scene in Shallow Hal,    you being "Mauricio" and winter is "Lindy"

 

[Chicago Storm]

14 hours ago, beavis1729 said:

Well, of course I respect all of your opinions...but I guess I see things from a different point of view. 

First, Winter is an absolute thing, not relative to climo. Even if Atlanta has a record snowy winter, it would still get an F, because there isn’t a persistent wintry appeal throughout DJF. You may say my expectations are too high, but it’s not about that. I fully admit Chicago will never get an A for a winter...because I agree with Chicago storm’s point that we always get thaws. That just proves my point. 

For this season, we had no white Christmas...and during the first 6 weeks of DJF, winter was nonexistent. Because of that, the starting point is an F. Then the November storm and the late January arctic outbreak could have (generously) brought it up to a C...but then the quick thaw and snowmelt after both of these events just killed it. So, split the difference with a D. 

The ice storm doesn’t contribute much either way. Sure, it was interesting...but 2 days later, you never knew it happened. 

True wintry places focus on SDDs, peak snow cover date, # of days with 20”+ depth, etc. Chicago never entertains these discussions at all. 

If Chicago truly got an A for this winter, does Rhinelander get an A+++? Do Bo and Will get an A++++++++++++++? Think about that...

I don't think you quite grasp how things work.

Think it's time you move up with Bo.

[madwx]

Up to 34.  First time above freezing since Feb 24th.  The good news is that above freezing highs are forecast for the next 7 days.

[Chicago Storm]

4 hours ago, beavis1729 said:

Ha...and yes, I agree. 

When grading winter, it's not about what I or anyone else is "satisfied with".  That's not the point.  

Even so...some winters do get a good grade in Chicago.  For example, I would give 1978-79 an A-, given the 90" of snow at MDW (and closer to 100" in NE IL near the WI border), with constant snow cover throughout DJF.  I would give 2013-14 a B-...which is actually a pretty good grade compared to the average Chicago winter grade of D or D-.  Even though everyone praises 2013-14 like crazy, the downside was that December was fairly mild (10 days with high temps above 35, including 3 days of 40+ temps in the last week of the month), with no White Christmas.  December is the month that you really need to perform in order to have a good winter, because it lays the base, it goes with the holidays, and daylight is shortest.  And on top of that, after the arctic outbreak in early January 2014, there were 4 consecutive days with highs of 40+...which melted most/all of the snow cover.  Of course this is somewhat typical in Chicago...but you can't give winter a phenomenal grade when these things occur.  It's just reality. Sure, it was a good winter by Chicago standards...but that doesn't really mean anything. And I know it was a bit better in Detroit.

None of this is meant to be obnoxious or start an argument...but winter is what it is.  We just have to accept that Chicago and Detroit (and most places in the lower 48 south of 45N) don't have solid winters.  It's not a big deal or anything...but that's the situation.  I'm not sure why people deny this, or struggle with this concept.  It's like when people who enjoy severe weather get frustrated when there is a prolonged issue of capping or poor timing, etc. during the prime time of April-June.  Of course, some of this is climo...but it's still frustrating when the general public spouts off how much severe weather the U.S. sees...but then sometimes it doesn't happen like it "should". 

Of course I enjoy and appreciate the wintry periods and big snowstorms like anyone else...and that's great.  But these are only wintry events, as opposed to the season and mood of winter...which are not the same thing. Places with real winter have the old-fashioned weather observer in their 80s telling tales about their hand-written records going back to 1965 related to lake freeze-up date, break-up date, etc...and comparing it to the prior observer's notes from the 1910s...showing how the seasons ebb and flow with each other.  And 90+% of years have snow cover starting in mid-Dec.  No worrying about melting of the snow or lakes/ponds.  And in the unusual year where you don't have a White Christmas, it's the talk of the town.  You know, David Ludlum and Pony Express and Currier & Ives stuff.  But none of that happens in our area.   

Edit: just saw the winter grade thread...will post future comments there.  I know, it's exhausting...but when you're a winter weenie, that's life. When 9 out of the 12 months aren't winter, you hope that the other 3 months deliver.  And now we wait until next November.

This tells us everything we need to know...you're out of your mind.

Winter 2013/14 was top 5 coldest and snowiest on record overall, and in other terms as well. Also 2013/24 being a -B and 1978/79 "only" being an -A is pure lol.

What you're looking for might not even exist on this planet, outside of mountainous terrain.

[WestMichigan]

7 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

This tells us everything we need to know...you're out of your mind.

Winter 2013/14 was top 5 coldest and snowiest on record overall, and in other terms as well. Also 2013/24 being a -B and 1978/79 "only" being an -A is pure lol.

What you're looking for might not even exist on this planet, outside of mountainous terrain.

Siberia?

[beavis1729]

3 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

This tells us everything we need to know...you're out of your mind.

Winter 2013/14 was top 5 coldest and snowiest on record overall, and in other terms as well. Also 2013/24 being a -B and 1978/79 "only" being an -A is pure lol.

What you're looking for might not even exist on this planet, outside of mountainous terrain.

Thanks for the kind words. 

 Northern 1/3 of WI, northern half of MN, and the UP fit the mold just fine.  They often have snow cover during DJF, with lakes that always freeze up for good at some point, and normal Jan temps of 20/0 or colder.  Also, ME/VT/NH.  Even though they have more thaws, there is enough snowfall and density of snowpack that snow cover/retention is strong there. 

Setting my lofty expectations aside for a bit...I still don't understand how people can give grades of As/Bs for Chicago when ORD had essentially zero snow and persistently mild temps in the first 6 weeks of met winter...and then during the last 25 days of Feb, there were only 4 days with snow depth 2" or greater.  So, nearly 10 of the 13 weeks of the DJF period were bad.  How does anyone think this is a good winter?  Maybe my D- grade is a bit harsh...but can it really be higher than a D?  I guess we agree to disagree.    

[Stebo]

17 minutes ago, beavis1729 said:

Thanks for the kind words. 

 Northern 1/3 of WI, northern half of MN, and the UP fit the mold just fine.  They often have snow cover during DJF, with lakes that always freeze up for good at some point, and normal Jan temps of 20/0 or colder.  Also, ME/VT/NH.  Even though they have more thaws, there is enough snowfall and density of snowpack that snow cover/retention is strong there. 

Setting my lofty expectations aside for a bit...I still don't understand how people can give grades of As/Bs for Chicago when ORD had essentially zero snow and persistently mild temps in the first 6 weeks of met winter...and then during the last 25 days of Feb, there were only 4 days with snow depth 2" or greater.  So, nearly 10 of the 13 weeks of the DJF period were bad.  How does anyone think this is a good winter?  Maybe my D- grade is a bit harsh...but can it really be higher than a D?  I guess we agree to disagree.    

November storm, and people understand climatology doesn't mean snow cover all winters.

[Baum]

I'm ready for the 60"s. It'll be nice to polish off the remaining snowpack over the next few days. Hoped we'd get one last hurrah, but not in the cards. Time to enjoy the change of seasons!

 

[michsnowfreak]

22 hours ago, beavis1729 said:

Ha...and yes, I agree. 

When grading winter, it's not about what I or anyone else is "satisfied with".  That's not the point.  

Even so...some winters do get a good grade in Chicago.  For example, I would give 1978-79 an A-, given the 90" of snow at MDW (and closer to 100" in NE IL near the WI border), with constant snow cover throughout DJF.  I would give 2013-14 a B-...which is actually a pretty good grade compared to the average Chicago winter grade of D or D-.  Even though everyone praises 2013-14 like crazy, the downside was that December was fairly mild (10 days with high temps above 35, including 3 days of 40+ temps in the last week of the month), with no White Christmas.  December is the month that you really need to perform in order to have a good winter, because it lays the base, it goes with the holidays, and daylight is shortest.  And on top of that, after the arctic outbreak in early January 2014, there were 4 consecutive days with highs of 40+...which melted most/all of the snow cover.  Of course this is somewhat typical in Chicago...but you can't give winter a phenomenal grade when these things occur.  It's just reality. Sure, it was a good winter by Chicago standards...but that doesn't really mean anything. And I know it was a bit better in Detroit.

None of this is meant to be obnoxious or start an argument...but winter is what it is.  We just have to accept that Chicago and Detroit (and most places in the lower 48 south of 45N) don't have solid winters.  It's not a big deal or anything...but that's the situation.  I'm not sure why people deny this, or struggle with this concept.  It's like when people who enjoy severe weather get frustrated when there is a prolonged issue of capping or poor timing, etc. during the prime time of April-June.  Of course, some of this is climo...but it's still frustrating when the general public spouts off how much severe weather the U.S. sees...but then sometimes it doesn't happen like it "should". 

Of course I enjoy and appreciate the wintry periods and big snowstorms like anyone else...and that's great.  But these are only wintry events, as opposed to the season and mood of winter...which are not the same thing. Places with real winter have the old-fashioned weather observer in their 80s telling tales about their hand-written records going back to 1965 related to lake freeze-up date, break-up date, etc...and comparing it to the prior observer's notes from the 1910s...showing how the seasons ebb and flow with each other.  And 90+% of years have snow cover starting in mid-Dec.  No worrying about melting of the snow or lakes/ponds.  And in the unusual year where you don't have a White Christmas, it's the talk of the town.  You know, David Ludlum and Pony Express and Currier & Ives stuff.  But none of that happens in our area.   

Edit: just saw the winter grade thread...will post future comments there.  I know, it's exhausting...but when you're a winter weenie, that's life. When 9 out of the 12 months aren't winter, you hope that the other 3 months deliver.  And now we wait until next November.

You are correct that Detroit did better than Chicago in 2013-14. Here it was the 4th coldest cold season on record, broke the all time seasonal snowfall record that had went unbroken for 134 years, and absolutely SMASHED every snowcover and snow depth record that existed for Detroit. That winter is an A+++++. I have a feeling if you lived here it would be knocked down to A- because it hit 40° for a few days after a historic cold snap (even though it did not fully melt the snow here, obviously it shrank the depth). If you were a teacher beavis, i dont think you would pass a single student 

[michsnowfreak]

Yesterday was an incredible sunrise. This is 2 in a span of 3 days, but yesterdays was far superior.

 

[Chicago Storm]

Looks like max wind gust at ORD overnight and this morning was 48mph.


.

[Hoosier]

Not everyday that a sub 980 mb low emerges into the Plains like what may happen in a few days.  The low is progged to fill as it moves toward our region though.

[Jim Martin]

At least warmer temperatures are on the way to #NWOhioWx.

[weatherbo]

There's an incredibly deep and dense snow pack in place here in the Huron's and the Keweenaw I don't think most people can imagine... the water content is 15-18" through this area (added another .5" today).  There's been over 50" on the ground here for nearly a month now and at times well over 60".  This pic I got from a fb friend was taken at a camp just north of me on the Yellow Dog plains... this is an area Jonger would have went through the night he became stranded.

I have no idea when the snow will be gone this year. Some roads are still not much more than one lane through a few areas and if you meet another vehicle, you risk getting stuck.

[Jackstraw]

7 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Not everyday that a sub 980 mb low emerges into the Plains like what may happen in a few days.  The low is progged to fill as it moves toward our region though.

A few models had this last low sub 980 3-5 days out only to adjust as it crashed onshore.  I do hope this pattern can stick around as we enter spring though. 

[Hoosier]

2 hours ago, weatherbo said:

There's an incredibly deep and dense snow pack in place here in the Huron's and the Keweenaw I don't think most people can imagine... the water content is 15-18" through this area (added another .5" today).  There's been over 50" on the ground here for nearly a month now and at times well over 60".  This pic I got from a fb friend was taken at a camp just north of me on the Yellow Dog plains... this is an area Jonger would have went through the night he became stranded.

I have no idea when the snow will be gone this year. Some roads are still not much more than one lane through a few areas and if you meet another vehicle, you risk getting stuck.

Crazy

[cyclone77]

10 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Not everyday that a sub 980 mb low emerges into the Plains like what may happen in a few days.  The low is progged to fill as it moves toward our region though.

Should be a high impact event out west.  Pretty meh out this way though unfortunately.  At least it will pump the warmest air of the season north.  

[Geoboy645]

Wednesday-Thursday looks quite the warm up for most areas. We could be reaching our first 50's since early november and maybe even our first 60's since mid-october at some point.

[madwx]

overachieved slightly up to 36 today.  Excited for the 50s and possible thunderstorms this week.

[Hoosier]

17 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

Should be a high impact event out west.  Pretty meh out this way though unfortunately.  At least it will pump the warmest air of the season north.  

12z Euro gets it down to 971 mb on Wed afternoon.

[cyclone77]

Lots of people outside enjoying the weather today.  You'd think it's our first 70 degree day or something.  I will say it feels much warmer than the high of 40 with the strong March sun and no wind.  The backyard is down to just large patches of snow remaining.  The first time there's been this much grass showing since Jan 11th.

[cyclone77]

1 minute ago, Hoosier said:

12z Euro gets it down to 971 mb on Wed afternoon.

Impressive.  Wish it wouldn't bust it's *** so soon into the game though lol.  

[SchaumburgStormer]

45 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Lots of people outside enjoying the weather today.  You'd think it's our first 70 degree day or something.  I will say it feels much warmer than the high of 40 with the strong March sun and no wind.  The backyard is down to just large patches of snow remaining.  The first time there's been this much grass showing since Jan 11th.

Same here. Kind of got the spring itch today, with the later sunset and “warmer” temps. All but done with snow unless you give me a big dog. 

[Stebo]

It definitely felt warmer even if it only made it to the low to mid 40s today.