STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 Just now, weathafella said: Saved many a man.... Here here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 More snow on Friday Active pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 3 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: can the koochie save us? We have been buried this winter on the Koochie...alas, we don't live in Koochieland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 As long as your expectations aren't for warning snows, I don't really see anything "wrong" with this system as modeled right now. It looks very typical for an open wave isentropic lift event. Prob 2-4" and maybe 4-6" in a weenie band if it maxes out over or region...but you wouldn't expect the higher amounts this far out. It could obviously weaken as we get closer...it could also strengthen as well. There's no real golden nugget that say it will do one or the other right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: As long as your expectations aren't for warning snows, I don't really see anything "wrong" with this system as modeled right now. It looks very typical for an open wave isentropic lift event. Prob 2-4" and maybe 4-6" in a weenie band if it maxes out over or region...but you wouldn't expect the higher amounts this far out. It could obviously weaken as we get closer...it could also strengthen as well. There's no real golden nugget that say it will do one or the other right now. Right now, I feel comfortable with 1-3" north of the pike, and 2-4" south....3-6" in the Berkshires. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Right now, I feel comfortable with 1-3" north of the pike, and 2-4" south....3-6" in the Berkshires. Yeah nothing wrong with that. Always good to start conservative on an open wave. If it looks like we have good crosshair sig when we are close in with good fronto banding showing up, then you can always increase. But a forecast should never count on those at this stage. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Yeah nothing wrong with that. Always good to start conservative on an open wave. If it looks like we have good crosshair sig when we are close in with good fronto banding showing up, then you can always increase. But a forecast should never count on those at this stage. Yea, forecasts reliant upon ratios of much greater than 10:1 should not be made until within at least 24-36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Poor Pickles. Kid is just lost right now. Tough to see happen He's been pretty spot on...missed one event a couple of weeks ago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: He's been pretty spot on...missed one event a couple of weeks ago. Dare I say Pickles has been....lucky...in his persistent state of pessimism this season? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: He's been pretty spot on...missed one event a couple of weeks ago. I don’t think so. I mean negativity has run rampant and made this place miserable . But he’s been more negative than Tblizz and that’s pretty damn hard to do 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: I don’t think so. I mean negativity has run rampant and made this place miserable . But he’s been more negative than Tblizz and that’s pretty damn hard to do He has been pretty good with his calls though. Optimism and weenieism is no more helpful. It has been a miserable winter. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 Man, euro remains quite bullish. It has a good shortwave and it really hitting the fronto. For an open wave, it's pretty nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Man, euro remains quite bullish. It has a good shortwave and it really hitting the fronto. For an open wave, it's pretty nice. Pickles says toss 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 18 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: Dare I say Pickles has been....lucky...in his persistent state of pessimism this season? I think there is a little more luck involved with seasonal snowfall, than pattern recognition...but yea, every good call has a little luck, and every bad call some bad luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 Euro is solid! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Pickles says toss But you tossed it when it was a whiff 36 hours ago... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: But you tossed it when it was a whiff 36 hours ago... Exactly . Now you’re getting it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Pickles says toss I mean...I get the pessimism. I just don't think persistence would be my reason. We've had plenty of systems that look like this which produce solid advisory snow. But it could crap out too. It's a northern stream system in fast flow so if it doesn't keep the integrity of the shortwave in a coherent manner, then yeah, maybe it's. 1-2 inch deal. But I'll throw out an example that this reminds me of...2/27/11...nice litttle event that actually went low warning in NE MA and SE NH with a weenie band and even some hangback snows. Not saying that's where the max will be...could be displaced a bit south this time but it overperofrmed was my point. This one could too....just like it could underperform. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 Euro solid 3-6" most of SNE, spots 6"+ in western MA 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 Snowcover into March, we take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHERMINATOR Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 Just now, wxsniss said: Euro solid 3-6" most of SNE, spots 6"+ in western MA How’s it look for New York City thank you in advance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 Gfs monkey slapped the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 1 minute ago, WEATHERMINATOR said: How’s it look for New York City thank you in advance On the fringe and a tick less than 0z run, maybe 1" 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 Congrats SNE crew, hopefully this pans out. Thats a nice 24-hour QPF total on the EURO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: Congrats SNE crew, hopefully this pans out. Thats a nice 24-hour QPF total on the EURO. Man...I'm right on the edge of the goods in the Berks...too bad I'm up in Leominster all week...maybe a solid 3-6" regionwide event, lollies in the berks to 6+? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I mean...I get the pessimism. I just don't think persistence would be my reason. We've had plenty of systems that look like this which produce solid advisory snow. But it could crap out too. It's a northern stream system in fast flow so if it doesn't keep the integrity of the shortwave in a coherent manner, then yeah, maybe it's. 1-2 inch deal. But I'll throw out an example that this reminds me of...2/27/11...nice litttle event that actually went low warning in NE MA and SE NH with a weenie band and even some hangback snows. Not saying that's where the max will be...could be displaced a bit south this time but it overperofrmed was my point. This one could too....just like it could underperform. Maybe we shouldn't be surprised either that the GFS may have sniffed this out sooner. The progressive bias of that model allowed the lead shortwave to exit faster and allow more room for the next to amplify just enough. The Euro even 24-36 hours ago was hanging that back over ME and not giving any room for the second shortwave to move into SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 SCT for the loss again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 Given H7 RH, I wouldn’t be a QPF queen in the rt2 to SNH area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: Given H7 RH, I wouldn’t be a QPF queen in the rt2 to SNH area. I'll get a H6 finger that drops 3.5" on 0.08" QPF with the way this winter is going. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 2 minutes ago, powderfreak said: I'll get a H6 finger that drops 3.5" on 0.08" QPF with the way this winter is going. Yep lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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